Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

[Christmastime4]

Does anyone think london will go in to tier 3 before Xmas?

@BunsyGirl that's pretty much the same everywhere though. There are parts of Derbyshire such as the peaks that have always had low cases and don't need to be tier 3 at all but they are, based on the county as a whole. Separating out boroughs makes it too complicated.

@Waxonwaxoff0 Well that’s exactly what happened pre lockdown 2. Chesterfield was in tier 2 but Bolsover was in tier 1 - and Bolsover had three times as many cases as the area of Essex that I live in! Do you know Essex? The southern part is basically an extension of London but the rest of it is very rural.

@BunsyGirl I don't know it well, I was going off the figures a PP posted showing rising cases in many parts. I know, I'm in an area of Derbyshire that was tier 2 before lockdown and no one paid attention to it, everyone just went over to the next borough to go to the pub instead. That's why I think it gets difficult.

@1990s

I’m confused about why rates are still rising when we only got out of “full lockdown” a week ago, and how Tier 3 would help that situation when full lockdown didn’t.

For people asking about why London isn’t in Tier 3 and places with smaller towns and lower rates are, it’s about hospital capacity. London has a lot of hospitality capacity, rural Devon/Derbyshire etc don’t, so you go into the higher tiers more quickly.

So if it is all about the hospital capacity why is every other thread got people banging on about all those infected people in tier 3 coming into tier 2 bringing the virus when really it is because there is less hospital capacity. Reading some posts on here you would think that every single person in a tier 3 area was infected and ready to shed the virus as soon as they left their borders.

@VashtaNerada

If we need to be in Tier 3, we should. I’ll miss having the option of going to a restaurant but so be it. I really hope it would mean the tubes would clear out again. They were empty a few months ago but now are back to being packed again. I think public transport needs to be looked into fairly urgently.

I use the Tube fi at last six journeys a week and haven’t seen it packed.

Someone asked re London hospital capacity. Much less busy than usual at the mo.

Cases are high but not hospitalisations, thankfully.

You’re lucky @AcornAutumn ! It’s normally okay when I get on but once we get nearer central London it just gets worse and worse. Coming home it’s almost back to normal rush hour levels. Maybe some lines are worse than others?
In April carriages were practically empty, it’s nothing like that now.

I think there will be a riot up north if it doesn’t. Seeing as many areas in tier 3 have lower rates than London. So they either need to put London up or move 80% of tier 3 areas to tier 2 which they won’t do.

There’s already ill feeling from a lot of people that it’s different rules for londoners.

@VashtaNerada

You’re lucky *@AcornAutumn* ! It’s normally okay when I get on but once we get nearer central London it just gets worse and worse. Coming home it’s almost back to normal rush hour levels. Maybe some lines are worse than others? In April carriages were practically empty, it’s nothing like that now.

I wouldn’t get on a rush hour tube in the past

Yesterday I got on at kings cross at 5ish and I’d say we averaged six people across the whole carriage.

I’ve also come from London Bridge at rush hour, which again, I wouldn’t have done in the past.

I agree in April it was empty but that was when they had signs up saying “if you are not an essential worker, go home NOW” which is really annoying when you’re doing a care visit.

@1990s

I’m confused about why rates are still rising when we only got out of “full lockdown” a week ago, and how Tier 3 would help that situation when full lockdown didn’t.

For people asking about why London isn’t in Tier 3 and places with smaller towns and lower rates are, it’s about hospital capacity. London has a lot of hospitality capacity, rural Devon/Derbyshire etc don’t, so you go into the higher tiers more quickly.

I don’t think it’s as simple as saying there’s more capacity. People seem to be getting bed numbers muddled up with capacity. Of course London has more hospital beds than Devon, but it really should be fairly proportional to population. We’re not talking about a developed country vs a third world country. Nhs spending per head of population should be about the same. And if it isn’t there needs to be an investigation into why the govt think it’s ok to underfund rural areas.

So yes maybe when the tiers were last calculated London had more spare capacity at the time but now with cases rising and more people needing hospital treatment that may well not be the case.

I think the tiers are stupid and ineffective but I do agree that people will start to feel very aggrieved if London is spared (again).

Typical selfish behaviour

When did hoping you’d be able to celebrate a birthday become selfish behaviour

Not saying i am going to celebrate my birthday with eleventy billion friends...just saying I HOPE

It will feel very unfair if it doesn't and other areas stay tier 3. Most of the tier 3 area numbers are coming down. I live in North Somerset, we got tier 3 as in a "travel to work" area with Bristol, it didn't mention hospitals but we do share a trust. The nightingale hospital is sat unused for Covid patients though and is being used for other things so I don't understand why they built the thing?!

I would have loved to have gone to a restaurant for my DCs birthday, or had a friend to play in the garden, or gone to the cinema, but a none of that possible here in our tier 3 borough with rates of 80/100,000.

It again is a choice of saving businesses or lives.

@Jumbojem

It will feel very unfair if it doesn't and other areas stay tier 3. Most of the tier 3 area numbers are coming down. I live in North Somerset, we got tier 3 as in a "travel to work" area with Bristol, it didn't mention hospitals but we do share a trust. The nightingale hospital is sat unused for Covid patients though and is being used for other things so I don't understand why they built the thing?!

I think the Nightingales could have been scams to put money in private pockets

They never knew how they were going to staff them

Some are not properly equipped

What’s your local one being used for? At least it’s being used!

@TeaBanditTeej
Why is it selfish to hope to be able to go out for a meal with my husband and teen kids on our birthdays. After the year we've had that would be a nice thing to do. Nothing selfish about it.

Selfish would be to have a party at home or try to invite people who aren't part of our household. You could say it would be selfish to travel to a tier 2 area to eat out if we're put into tier 3.

Of course we'll get takeaways or cook if we're put into tier 3 but it would be nice to able to eat out, that's not selfish

I am in the north, in an area that has been under restrictions for months, we had around 2 weeks out of them after the original lockdown and then went straight back into them again.

If London isn’t treated in the same way as the rest of the country then I think it will be hugely damaging to the Tories who only gained the seat here in December.

@1990s

I’m confused about why rates are still rising when we only got out of “full lockdown” a week ago, and how Tier 3 would help that situation when full lockdown didn’t.

For people asking about why London isn’t in Tier 3 and places with smaller towns and lower rates are, it’s about hospital capacity. London has a lot of hospitality capacity, rural Devon/Derbyshire etc don’t, so you go into the higher tiers more quickly.

Ahhhh I see now, we’re stuck in tier 3 with lower rates than London due to chronic lack of investment in our northern hospitals... well that’s OK then, what’s a few more months in tier 3 after all??

this north/south thing is pointless.

it's pretty grim blaming one place for another for lockdown. I don't hear Londoners blaming Tier 3 Kent for lockdown.

All the lockdowns are pointless. The criteria are bizarre, and AIUI, even include the prison population.

there's probably chronic lack of investment in hospitals but given they want to ditch the NHS, that suits them right now.

my cousins are up north. I don't think the Red Wall places will ever vote Tory again but I still think this lockdown would have been worse under Corbyn. I actually quite liked Corbyn and I still think that.

It should, whether it will or not is a different matter

I'm in Manchester. Many boroughs in Manchester are in a better state infection wise than London. And all are heading down.

We were treated disgracefully before- with no promise of financial help. It's all very well saying the North South divide is a meaningless analogy. But it doesn't feel bloody meaningless here.

London should go into Tier 3 now.

@bellinisurge

I'm in Manchester. Many boroughs in Manchester are in a better state infection wise than London. And all are heading down.

We were treated disgracefully before- with no promise of financial help. It's all very well saying the North South divide is a meaningless analogy. But it doesn't feel bloody meaningless here.

London should go into Tier 3 now.

would you feel better if London went into Tier 3 and you stayed in Tier 3?

@Schummakker

It again is a choice of saving businesses or lives.

saving businesses is saving lives. What do you think money is for? You have to have food to eat and a roof over your head at the least.

I smell Cummings chaos theory in the Tier system. Ultimately it will go back to national lockdown partly because of "fairness"

for a lot of hospitality in Tier 2, it's not worth opening because they are still empty while households can't mix. It's also not worth opening given the government's general approach.

I am genuinely worried that London won’t be put into tier 3 and their rates will continue to rise. When London hospitals start getting overrun then no doubt the whole country will be put back into lockdown - that’s what happened in March

It should but it depends on whether the PM can cope with the backbench revolt if he does the right thing.