What’s going to happen next? Cases rising?

[Racoonworld]

The Wales lockdown hasn’t worked and it looks like the England one has only had very short term effects. Schools and unis still open and a lot of the public just aren’t following the rules now, it’s cold and wet so meeting outdoors isn’t going to happen so people are going inside. MPs don’t want harsher restrictions in their areas. So what will happen? Is it time just to end most restrictions seeing as they aren’t being followed anyway? Or will they try and impose another lockdown? Close the schools?

Yes probably both, meanwhile posters on these boards are promoting their anti vaxx agenda. We’re in for the long ride.

I can see another lockdown of sorts after Christmas what with all the mixing etc.

I think they will have to put more places into tier 3 unfortunately

They can try but there’s a lot of opposition from mps now so it might not get through more votes. Also if people didn’t comply with last lockdown and the tier system now they aren’t going to for more harsh restrictions. People are bored of it, people are meeting others inside no matter what the rules.

Closing the schools would drive a chunk of cases down. Maybe retail needs a look at given the huge crowds.

A u-turn on Christmas mixing would also help January cases as mixing then returning to work and school will not help cases in the slightest.

It’s not all about cases it’s about cases in the over 60s and hospital admissions as well but it’s to be expected and the government will know this that cases after a lockdown will rise. They do another lockdown then cases will rise again once it ends. People have had enough and I honestly think there are a huge majority now who aren’t willing to give up anymore of their lives hence why they are not following the often nonsensical rules. They may do another lockdown they may put the whole country into tier 3 but what they do will not matter as people will break the rules if they want to, the only harm from lockdowns now is to mental health and businesses which are on their knees.

Cases will rise until Christmas, then at least double from that high level after Christmas due to the ridiculousness of the 5 day 'mixing' period.

Then schools will re-start, and students will go back to university, boosting things still further.

If this is just in the north, there will be punitive regional restrictions there.

If it is bad anywhere in the South, there will be a national lockdown.

It won't achieve much, because schools will still be open. However, it will reduce things a little, so there will be a much heralded 'return to freedom', probably around half term (which would have been the ideal time for a lockdown, aided by schools being closed) .

Then repeat, aty least until Easter.

As supplies of effective vaccines will be extremely limited, due to no deal Brexit affecting all imports, we will be reliant on the less effective Oxford vaccine. There will be no effective uimmunity for vulnerable groups until at least Easter.

Vaccination - like actual Covid infection - is unlikely to create lasting immunity, and there will not be sufficient supplies or planning to start immunising again for next winter in time.

So there will be a brief respite in the summer, and another wave next winter.

There are quite a few posts where people have said they won't stick to the rules, so yes, guess we are heading for tier 3 unfortunately.

@Katie517

It’s not all about cases it’s about cases in the over 60s and hospital admissions as well but it’s to be expected and the government will know this that cases after a lockdown will rise. They do another lockdown then cases will rise again once it ends. People have had enough and I honestly think there are a huge majority now who aren’t willing to give up anymore of their lives hence why they are not following the often nonsensical rules. They may do another lockdown they may put the whole country into tier 3 but what they do will not matter as people will break the rules if they want to, the only harm from lockdowns now is to mental health and businesses which are on their knees.

This is what I mean, lockdowns won’t make a difference because people won’t follow it anymore and it might not get past parliament vote anyway.

Gosh yes the crowds in Oxford St were awful. Would shutting schools a week early and going back a week late help or would it enable people to stick to the rules even less? We need to do something. We've been so lucky at our school with all classes in, not sure if we are few and far between.

@Pomegranatespompom

There are quite a few posts where people have said they won't stick to the rules, so yes, guess we are heading for tier 3 unfortunately.

I know, it’s been saddening to see. I’ve been quite dismayed in real life too to see how selfish some are and can only think of themselves.

I can't see schools ever closing again. Probably another lockdown in January like the November one.

I see another English lockdown after Christmas, to retract the current rules around Christmas now would be political suicide and also largely ignored.

Although, it does depend on how many people they can vaccinate between now and the end of the year, if the hospital admissions start to tale off there will be no need for lockdown as the nhs will be able to cope with the patient load

@Waxonwaxoff0

I can't see schools ever closing again. Probably another lockdown in January like the November one.

You mean you can't see schools closing in an organised manner, don't you? Hundreds of thousands of students are not in school every day at the moment, with a large majority of schools having been closed to some children this term.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss thing is though people have had their lives put on hold since March, been made redundant, businesses lost. Mental health is at a low. I can see why people aren’t sticking to it, especially when they themselves aren’t at risk. How much longer can the government get a majority of people to stick to it? I’m not sure what else there is to do really.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss I feel really sad too. I know it's difficult and some people are so stressed plus mental health/economy. It's miserable, but personally, we will stick to it. Told DC tonight we can't see anyone over Christmas, they are 9 and 7 but accepted it. DD said the stupid Covid needs to go away.
I feel emotionally drained (nhs) need time off nut no capacity for that sadly.

Although, it does depend on how many people they can vaccinate between now and the end of the year, if the hospital admissions start to tale off there will be no need for lockdown as the nhs will be able to cope with the patient load

400,000 absolute maximum, if every dose that has already arrived is effectively used.

I don't think there will be any more vaccines available before the end of the year after this initial batch - Oxford is not approved and it is hugely unlikely there will be any more deliveries before the end of the year - nor after, if there is a no deal Brexit.

Each time it crops up MPs are less likely to vote for it.

So maybe tier 3 with a lot of noise and back lash.

@cantkeepawayforever Think Oxford will be available before Christmas (according to pharmacy but could all be rumour).

Pomegranate, but AFAI remember it is only about 60% effective based on the 'better conducted' of its initial trials, and isn't proven to be effective in older age groups, unlike the Pfizer one?

So it needs to reach 100% of people to even have a hope of bringing about the herd immunity that might be effective in protecting the vulnerable, in whom the vaccine is less likely to be effective?

cant yes, obviously I mean being ordered to close by the government. I'm aware of the situation in some schools.

@cantkeepawayforever it as about dosing. a 50% dose followed but a 100% dose was 90% effective. Sample size for this was 3000.

But that sample size is TINY - my recollection of the number of cases was that it was in the low single figures because of the tiny size of the sample.I would really want to see a graph that shows the error bars on each percentage - I am sure that I saw it once (and the range around that 90% was very large indeed) but i can't find it at the moment.

Obviously, a much larger study of the supposedly 'more effective' dose would be indicated ... but political expediency and lack of other options means that the large scale trial is likely - as for the Russians and Chinese - be in a national roll out situation.

‘it is hugely unlikely there will be any more deliveries before the end of the year - ‘

Why hugely unlikely, given Pfizer promised more a few days ago? I certainly wouldn’t bet my house on it arriving but hugely unlikely seems a bit pessimistic!