What’s going to happen next? Cases rising?

[Racoonworld]

The Wales lockdown hasn’t worked and it looks like the England one has only had very short term effects. Schools and unis still open and a lot of the public just aren’t following the rules now, it’s cold and wet so meeting outdoors isn’t going to happen so people are going inside. MPs don’t want harsher restrictions in their areas. So what will happen? Is it time just to end most restrictions seeing as they aren’t being followed anyway? Or will they try and impose another lockdown? Close the schools?

Not sure where you’re op but we entered with 470 cases where I live. Tier 3 post lockdown and now we are at 170 so it’s worked
Measurements are working but for them people need to follow them. If we meet indoors then of course numbers will go up.

January is going to be a car crash in many ways, but don't worry there will be lots to distract us from covid.

They are going to rush the vaccine out. And there are going to be lots of complaints about distribution in certain areas, with priority 2 being started in some places before priority 1 is complete. And we will run out of stock of vaccine rather rapidly (especially when other countries start to approve, and we find ourselves at the back of the queue).

The military will be brought in to ship in vaccine from Europe - so they can be given priority over all the lorries. But there is likely to be problems with supply.

There is unlikely to be another lockdown in England. Once places get out of T3 this time (hello Trafford - you will be escaping before the rest of Greater Manchester and before Christmas you lucky people) it won't be going back in. Its politicially unlikely at this point now. They will let deaths run whilst trying to ramp up the vaccination programme and will have the veneer / pr stunt of Operation Moonshit as a nice distraction from this.

So I am expecting a 'third wave' as it will probably be inaccurately be called. But we will not do a lot about it, because of political pressure to prioritise the dying economy, stroppy Tory MPs, Vaccine Rollout and Operation Moonshit being Johnson's baby.

@wizzbangfizz

I don't agree with the lockdown approach - but I would be very aggrieved to be called an "antilockdowner". I wont be seeing friends and family this Christmas, I've not and nor will be rushing out to the shops, I wear a mask, only one of us from the household goes to the supermarket - I follow the rules.

I want this to be over as much as anyone but don't think that what we are doing at the moment is working.

This.

Ultimately I think the vaccine will save the government’s bacon. Just as well as they don’t actually have a clue how to get us out of this otherwise.

Ultimately I think the vaccine will save the government’s bacon. Just as well as they don’t actually have a clue how to get us out of this otherwise.

It will everyone’s bacon. No one has a clue on way out without it.

@AcornAutumn yes fair enough I am anti lockdown - it was more aimed at something written earlier that people who don't believe in it are just flouting the rules and making it harder for everyone else and I wanted to make it clear that whilst I don't agree with the rules I follow them.

I think the vaccine will take so long to roll out that it won’t save anyone’s bacon for a very long time.

[quote wizzbangfizz]@AcornAutumn yes fair enough I am anti lockdown - it was more aimed at something written earlier that people who don't believe in it are just flouting the rules and making it harder for everyone else and I wanted to make it clear that whilst I don't agree with the rules I follow them.[/quote]
Oh I see

I think many, if not most, anti lockdown folk follow the rules but lobby against them as much as we can.

@Nellee

I think the vaccine will take so long to roll out that it won’t save anyone’s bacon for a very long time.

And as it is unlikely to provide long lasting immunity, the end of the first cycle of immunisation is likely to bump into when the start of next year's vaccination programme needs to be.

I think they'll have to/ought to have a big lockdown in February, maybe including schools, maybe going all the way up to Easter. I reckon it might be smart to shut down Feb - always going to be a slow time in business, and you'd only miss 3 weeks of school if you shut those as well.

It'd have been ever smarter to tell people that it wasn't safe to go home for Christmas and everyone should do it by Zoom, but I do get that a lot of people would have gone whatever.

I've held back 5 days of holiday I can take into the first quarter of next year so I can take some time off in event of a school shutdown. Sigh.

At least there is a decent chance that it will be the last time that anything like that will be necessary, as by autumn we'll have got much further with vaccination. Masks and distancing in some form will have to stay with us through next year regardless, but I think after first quarter than should be the end of shutdowns if things work out.

More tier 3 areas and then another lockdown end jan/start feb when the Christmas fallout out hits
Don’t see the vaccine impacting rates until summer when the better weather will lead to improved outside time like this year
I want my kids in school end nursery f
Long way to go y

Yorkshire currently has about the same number of cases as London.

Cases per 100,000 for the last 7 days
Yorkshire &Humber 169.1
London 169.6

The cases for the whole country are slowly going down but that’s hiding big drops in the north and rises in the south.

A lot of places will be tier 3 but they won't lock down again the economy would not survive again

@AcornAutumn

All the Londoners I know were just living normally in that time. I was at the theatre two days before it shut down. Theatre was full but bars were pretty empty after because the fear was starting. So I reckon we’ve lived with it for ages.

I agree I think it was there since November lots of people had it at my work in March

‘And as it is unlikely to provide long lasting immunity, the end of the first cycle of immunisation is likely to bump into when the start of next year's vaccination programme needs to be.‘

Amazing how some people on here know more than the scientists!

@DivGirl

I’m with Wizzbang. The first lockdown was justified by saying the NHS was going to be overwhelmed. That didn’t happen and this wave it hasn’t even come close to happening.

This is a disease the vast majority of people need a test to even find out they have. And we shut the country down for this. We closed schools, shat on education, closed small business while allowing the huge ones to continue to profit. We stopped the ill and vulnerable from spending time with their loved ones (in many cases stopped them spending their last months/moments with people they loved). We cancelled weddings, told people to attend funerals by zoom, stopped dads being present at their children’s births.

For an illness entirely indistinguishable from a heavy cold in the vast majority of people (and that’s people who even get symptoms).

They can’t stop lockdowns now because the press will keep publishing daily figures and people with too much time on their hands and too much anxiety in their heads will keep lapping it up. They have no choice but to continue with the rolling lockdowns. To hell with mental health, education, the economy, job security, personal happiness. To hell with it all.

This. I agree entirely.

I hope they don't have the January sales, imagine all that crowding to grab a bargain after the mixing at Christmas.

I'm in the optimistic camp re vaccines. We've managed (variably) March-December, I'm holding on the the hope March will be better.

Well, on the one hand it is not a rapidly mutating virus - so unlike the 'flu vaccination, there isn't a need to vaccinate annually to take account of the most prevalent strains.

On the other hand, cases of re-infection of those who have already clearly had Covid are no longer unheard of, indicating that certainly a natural infection - even a symptomatic one - does not confer lasting immunity.

As I understand it, the 'best guess' is that regular vaccination will be needed, and as with 'flu, the best time to vaccinate is autumn, ready for the winter season.

And we will run out of stock of vaccine rather rapidly I agree, I don't know why they are so worried about persuading people to have it as I think it will just cause more trouble when they run out. Do the people who want it first, manage demand.

Cases in my area are falling and looking really good.

I just wish people could be sensible. How hard is to to do what the ad says - hands, face, space? I appreciate that some people are exempt from wearing masks, but if everyone would observe the first two then it would make not wearing a mask less of a problem.

I'm in a tier 3 area. We were tier 3 before lockdown and are now back in tier 3. I could cry for the landlord and landlady of our local pub as they have been shut for most of the year.

People behaving like selfish idiots aren't just putting other people's health and lives at risk, but other people's livelihoods.

Lockdown worked in my part of South Yorkshire. Our rates are still high, but have plummeted from 562 per 100k to 195 per 100k

@cantkeepawayforever

Well, on the one hand it is not a rapidly mutating virus - so unlike the 'flu vaccination, there isn't a need to vaccinate annually to take account of the most prevalent strains.

On the other hand, cases of re-infection of those who have already clearly had Covid are no longer unheard of, indicating that certainly a natural infection - even a symptomatic one - does not confer lasting immunity.

As I understand it, the 'best guess' is that regular vaccination will be needed, and as with 'flu, the best time to vaccinate is autumn, ready for the winter season.

The picture from recent research is far more optimistic than that. See the La Jolla study. There was an Australian project reported a little bit later that showed similar indications. The number of reinfections has been low enough to not cause problems for vaccines. They do exist but are not the norm. I can see from your many posts that you’re inclined to catastrophise though so I am sure you will find something to be pessimistic about here too...

I can see from your many posts that you’re inclined to catastrophise though so I am sure you will find something to be pessimistic about here too...

Apologies for my less than cheery outlook on life!

Being a teacher through this pandemic has not been something to encourage a robust feeling of optimism, especially in anything to do with our political leaders and any 'news' they give us......

Cases in my area are falling and looking really good. And mine, 2 or 3 cases per 100,000 per day. I feel more confident going to shops, I hadn't been anywhere since lockdown until Friday. Oh I tell a lie I went to the dentist, I didn't want to cancel and risk waiting months for another appointment. We are still tier 2, don't know if that will change. To be honest it won't make any difference to me but I know it would help others.

But I do appreciate that there are others who quite reasonably believe that the vaccine is the one aspect of the pandemic that the Powers that Be are NOT going to mess up!!