What’s going to happen next? Cases rising?

[Racoonworld]

The Wales lockdown hasn’t worked and it looks like the England one has only had very short term effects. Schools and unis still open and a lot of the public just aren’t following the rules now, it’s cold and wet so meeting outdoors isn’t going to happen so people are going inside. MPs don’t want harsher restrictions in their areas. So what will happen? Is it time just to end most restrictions seeing as they aren’t being followed anyway? Or will they try and impose another lockdown? Close the schools?

Oh don't be silly. There are over 200 children in my son's so-called yeargroup 'bubble'. Outside of school, he doesn't come into contact with 200 people from 200 families every weekday.

Children don't actually come into contact with 200 other kids at school each day though, do they? In reality it will be a much smaller number.

My child is supposed to be self isolating now - but fuck that frankly. We're going out and about and I still think it would be far safer for him to be at school - he'd be with other kids who don't get Covid as bad. So called self isolating he's going in and out of shops and libraries - museums - far and wide. He's mixing with adults now who are more likely to get Covid and more likely to get it badly.

Just to say DS doesn't actually have Covid. Someone in his bubble had it and that's not someone who he went very near to at all.

I'm just suggesting that he'd be less of a risk at school than out in the real world. So many kids round here who are meant to be isolating away from school are not.

In fairness the Welsh lockdown DID work. It suppressed cases enough we came out of it with more freedom than we had before. Yes it won’t last until the world is vaccinated but they were clear on that, another firebreak in January is likely. But I’d rather take two weeks every 3 months than another endless lockdown or tiers, which for the higher ones are seemingly lockdown in all but name.

Children don't actually come into contact with 200 other kids at school each day though, do they? In reality it will be a much smaller number.

They come into contact with more people than they come into contact with at home or even just seeing friends a couple of times a week.

Unless their parents are selfish like you...

My child is supposed to be self isolating now - but fuck that frankly. We're going out and about and I still think it would be far safer for him to be at school - he'd be with other kids who don't get Covid as bad. So called self isolating he's going in and out of shops and libraries - museums - far and wide. He's mixing with adults now who are more likely to get Covid and more likely to get it badly.

That's your choice though. You're the one potentially infecting vulnerable people - and you should be ashamed.

"In the battle to deny what makes us most human, madness truly lies"
Amanda Coe.

My child is supposed to be self isolating now - but fuck that frankly.

^^

Shame on you.

There is so much unknown. So much uncertainty about this new vaccine. Just watching Newsnight now. It's unnerving actually.

It's making me wonder if they're making a huge mistake rushing in so fast like this. If this goes badly it could put people off vaccines for years to come.

No wonder we are all fucked when people won’t even follow the self isolating rules....

@Nellee

Oh don't be silly. There are over 200 children in my son's so-called yeargroup 'bubble'. Outside of school, he doesn't come into contact with 200 people from 200 families every weekday.

Children don't actually come into contact with 200 other kids at school each day though, do they? In reality it will be a much smaller number.

My child is supposed to be self isolating now - but fuck that frankly. We're going out and about and I still think it would be far safer for him to be at school - he'd be with other kids who don't get Covid as bad. So called self isolating he's going in and out of shops and libraries - museums - far and wide. He's mixing with adults now who are more likely to get Covid and more likely to get it badly.

Just to say DS doesn't actually have Covid. Someone in his bubble had it and that's not someone who he went very near to at all.

I'm just suggesting that he'd be less of a risk at school than out in the real world. So many kids round here who are meant to be isolating away from school are not.

They don't send bubbles home only because they think every child who might have caught it could only have caught it from the one case they know about.

They send bubbles home because they think it's not going to be enough to send home the closest contacts only, because they think there are likely to be more cases than just that one.

It doesn't matter that your child never got that close to that first case the school officially know about. If he's in the same bubble, and the school/PHE have sent the whole bubble home, then that's a sign they think he could have been exposed - if not to the child they officially know about, to some of the others they are deducing must exist (maybe from looking at sickness rates, siblings, staff?).

If you understand this perfectly well and are still not keeping your child at home then I agree with the people who said you should be ashamed. I'm hoping perhaps it's just that you didn't understand how much of a risk your child could be to others though. Please be careful.

I’m not surprised by the PP who is ignoring isolation advice for her son, this country is full of people who just don’t get it or believe they know better than those far more qualified and experienced than they are. It has long been said that children may be largely asymptomatic so the bubble scenario is important as a pp explained, but the poster will ignore this because they just don’t care. They will then say ‘my child is mixing with more vulnerable people when not at school’ as an argument against isolation when it’s their own rule breaking stupidity that’s causing this scenario. I know of people still sending their kids to school despite positive test results in the household because they believe the results are wrong because they don’t have symptoms. I know of people sending their kids in whilst waiting for results because ‘they don’t have it yet’. I know of people who when asked to isolate as a contact simply take a test and ignore the isolation advice because the test was negative ( I also know some businesses are operating with this advice too) so I can see why the rates are like they are especially in my area, one of the highest in the country and no sign of improving anytime soon

Completely agree with @TheKeatingFive @wizzbangfizz @DivGirl
So relieved that there is some sanity.

@Pepperama

I'm fed up of the Yo-Yo approach. Australia had big spikes in various areas, went in really hard, drove down numbers to near zero, and now just have the odd case quickly identified and brought under control. Life back to normal. Current approach here is ridiculous. All the pain for shops and businesses over months and months, never mind huge number of deaths and Long term health effects, and every time it goes in the right direction they open up again. Bet there will be a third wave in January/February because of December easing, shopping crowds, family travel, household mixing. Predictable and avoidable. And desperately sad if you lose a loved one just before the vaccine got to them

This, exactly.

As a primary school teacher I can tell you that when we had to send bubbles home, which we haven't had to do since early October thank goodness, their were a significant number of parents who sent the isolating child to their grandparents each day.
I understand that people have to work but it really makes a mockery of protecting the vulnerable and I truly believe if schools closed in general then more children would be left with grandparents or teenagers left alone a large proportion of whom would just meet up with their mates out and about anyway.
I really think the government have got it right keeping the schools open.

I suspect the vaccine will be a moot point for healthy under 50s. By the time the vaccine is available to them the virus will probably have either mutated or the immunity from the first patients will be wearing off.

I would say vaccinate the vulnerable which according to the Government will stop 99% of hospital admissions and deaths then move on with life without spending energy arguing about the under 50d/ those not vulnerable. I suspect this is largely the government’s plan anyway.

‘I suspect the vaccine will be a moot point for healthy under 50s. By the time the vaccine is available to them the virus will probably have either mutated or the immunity from the first patients will be wearing off. ‘

Both of these things are unlikely.

@TableCat - except at our primary, we have multiple children in affected class bubbles testing positive now, and parents getting ill after their children got ill. Sending people home to isolate feels like a waste of time until it isn’t a waste of time, and children can and do spread coronavirus to each other and to adults, whatever has previously been spouted about their miraculous ability not to infect those around them, based on research that did not take place in winter. I’m sure they spread to each other more easily than to other adults given they are at face height to each other more often, but that kind of makes school a great place to spread the virus and then bring it hone to mum and dad.

We were in tier 3 before lockdown, and higher restrictions before tier 3.

Cases have gone down from 700 per 100k to less than 100. It worked here.

Of course, it will all go tits up over Christmas and we’ll be looking at another lockdown, with even less compliance.

Let’s hope Brexshit doesn’t balls up the vaccine supply chain.

By the time kids have got their results back our classes have been spreading it in and out of school for 4/5 days.

Not sure what is meant to be happening but infected kid goes off, gets tested, gets results and only then 5 days later does the class isolate.

Damage has already been done. What’s the point of shutting classes down at this late stage?

I've heard of more cases in the last 3 days than I have for months. Between me, dp and a handful of friends who all teach in the North east... college and school numbers are rising

@Nellee - you could ask the same about any isolation. What do you think would happen if no contacts isolated and we gave up on test, track and trace? And why do you think it is better to have a growing number of infected people coming into school each day, rather than try to limit it? One child infected in a class might well not spread it at all - several children in the class might enable it to spread quite a bit. Spread it to adults and they can spread it a lot.

I think people are giving up now Walkaround.

I personally cannot take any more of this stop and start and disruption.

I saw the point initially. But not anymore. Even though what you say must make sense. I just can’t get my head round any of this anymore.

I think the removal of our own personal choice has meant the government has exhausted the public’s responsiveness.

I don’t want to be rebellious. I just can’t be obedient any more.

One of my DC is currently isolating due to a positive case in the class. She hasn't left the house in a week or had any decent outdoor exercise, and as per lockdown the "home schooling" exercises are pretty basic. How that is better for her than being in school (and I know I will get leaped on for saying that) is beyond me. My and DH luckily can work from home but in demanding roles so cannot sit with her all day supervising so she after she has done her work sheets she is in front on screens - and yes I feel guilty but I also have to keep my job and prevent her boredom.

@GoodKingWindowshopping

Yes probably both, meanwhile posters on these boards are promoting their anti vaxx agenda. We’re in for the long ride.

I completely get what you are saying on this, I myself have posted concerns re the vaccine ( not anti vax stuff).

My stance now is go to speak to the medical professionals, and I think if this was more out there it would stop the panic.

I have been told for several reasons I am not to have the vaccine, this was from those learned people.

I think we are right in the middle of your typical flu season and people getting ill. I think cases going up was inevitable plus as you say people being inside people's houses, going out more etc.

I think the next 3 months are going to be more of the rough ride.

@justasking111

The spanish flu lasted four years waxing and waning. It is a roller coaster the whole world is on.

I can’t see any reference to 4 years? The three waves were in 1918 and 1919.

Some people may not be complying but everyone I know is.
There is one person I know of who has gone to someone else's house and he had covid recently so highly likely to be immune for a while.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

‘I suspect the vaccine will be a moot point for healthy under 50s. By the time the vaccine is available to them the virus will probably have either mutated or the immunity from the first patients will be wearing off. ‘

Both of these things are unlikely.

Indeed, Countess

Having a large group of people vaccinated will mean that there is less movement of the virus though, it’s still good news for those not vaccinated.