What’s going to happen next? Cases rising?

[Racoonworld]

The Wales lockdown hasn’t worked and it looks like the England one has only had very short term effects. Schools and unis still open and a lot of the public just aren’t following the rules now, it’s cold and wet so meeting outdoors isn’t going to happen so people are going inside. MPs don’t want harsher restrictions in their areas. So what will happen? Is it time just to end most restrictions seeing as they aren’t being followed anyway? Or will they try and impose another lockdown? Close the schools?

My child is supposed to be self isolating now - but fuck that frankly. We're going out and about and I still think it would be far safer for him to be at school - he'd be with other kids who don't get Covid as bad. So called self isolating he's going in and out of shops and libraries - museums - far and wide. He's mixing with adults now who are more likely to get Covid and more likely to get it badly.

Disgusting attitude.

But this child is supposed to be self- isolating as in staying the fuck at home. Really what is so difficult to understand ?

I think people are beginning to approach Covid in much the same way we approach climate change. We agree it is A Bad Thing and should be curtailed, but aren't prepared or can't afford to make massive sacrifices. We're fine with a bit of handwashing / recycling, but we're not - if we're honest - going to personally turn our lives upside indefinitely. But we'd also like Something Done, preferably by someone else ie Tiers sound good till its us in Tier 3....Lockdown sounds good when you're filling in a Yougov survey but you're still going to pop in and out of your mum's house like normal when it actually happens....The Government should be strict about Christmas mixing, but somehow not your Christmas mixing. I know that sounds cynical, but I do think its where we're at.

But cases is positive cases, not tests carried out. It's obvious that at the start, the true number of cases was a lot higher than recorded because they weren't testing everyone or had testing capacity. Also, whether there are false positives or not, they can tell how prevalent the virus is in the community by the ratio of positive cases to tests carried out. They do monitor this and can see changes.

@SomewhereEast

I think people are beginning to approach Covid in much the same way we approach climate change. We agree it is A Bad Thing and should be curtailed, but aren't prepared or can't afford to make massive sacrifices. We're fine with a bit of handwashing / recycling, but we're not - if we're honest - going to personally turn our lives upside indefinitely. But we'd also like Something Done, preferably by someone else ie Tiers sound good till its us in Tier 3....Lockdown sounds good when you're filling in a Yougov survey but you're still going to pop in and out of your mum's house like normal when it actually happens....The Government should be strict about Christmas mixing, but somehow not your Christmas mixing. I know that sounds cynical, but I do think its where we're at.

I think this is probably true, and I (guiltily) recognise myself here. I also think that a lot of people who think that 'everyone they know is following the rules' might be surprised, especially if they're as vocal in real life as they are on MN about how people who break them are selfish murderers. I picked up DS from my parents' house (fine under the rules; childcare bubble) and popped in for a cup of tea myself (not fine) the other day, but I wouldn't advertise that fact.

I also think that a lot of people who think that 'everyone they know is following the rules' might be surprised, especially if they're as vocal in real life as they are on MN about how people who break them are selfish murderers

This is very true I think! I'm honestly about 99% rule compliant, but I'm pretty open about eye-rolling at some of the odder ones and about not judging people over it, so I think I hear things other people mightn't. And I've noticed a big shift amongst friends, family & acquaintances. There's a lot of minor rule bending now, often very understandable rule bending from a human POV ("My mum's lonely so I'm not going to stop her popping in". "Whats the harm in letting DC have one friend over for a birthday playdate?"). It reminds me a lot of the way many Brits approach rules around driving - 90% observant but ok with a bit of dodgy parking and a smidge of motorway speeding.

Those of you arguing to get back to normal don't forget it's not just the NHS we have to keep running.

It's farmers, food factories, electricians, the gas network. The infrastructure for the internet.

A lot of these industries live in fear of having a large percentage of a small number of staff off with Covid at once.

I’ve raised similar points on a few threads in response to the “tell the elderly to stay at home and let’s just get on with things” brigade, but no-one ever seems interested. It’s not so much that we’ll run out of ventilators, but take the situation where some factories have had massive outbreaks and have had to close down - how does that work if replicated nationwide? Even what are called “mild” symptoms may need a week or two off work - and unless we’re intending to ditch test trace & isolate altogether, will involve even more people not being at work. We’re seeing how “just getting on with it” in schools is working, and it’s not efficient.

Ventilators are counterproductive and the use of them killed more people unnecessarily before it was found months ago that they are entirely the wrong treatment. Do keep up.

@MrsFezziwig but that is a worse case scenario - even at the height of the peaks the factories haven't shut down and anarchy hasn't happened - it's another doomsday scenario like the graphs. And as reluctant as I am to get into the schools debate - it's more likely people can't work because their kids are off it they shut which will have the worse consequences.

@Susanwouldntlikeit I think you may have made that up dear. It is certainly true that better treatment protocols than "wait til someone is really sick then incubate them" have been discovered but no-one that was put on a ventilator would have survived without one at that point.

but that is a worse case scenario - even at the height of the peaks the factories haven't shut down and anarchy hasn't happened - it's another doomsday scenario like the graphs. And as reluctant as I am to get into the schools debate - it's more likely people can't work because their kids are off it they shut which will have the worse consequences

the doomsday scenario has been avoided by the lockdowns - certainly the first lockdown. It is difficult to say what would have happened if the lockdowns hadn't kicked in when they did. Too many people prefer to pretend that because hospitals haven't been over run and because there haven't been massive food shortages, lockdown was unnecessary. Simple fact of the matter is we will never know what might have been had we taken a 'whatever' attitude towards it.

You also seem to miss the point that absolutely, schools closing is now an issue and will impact parents which in turn will impact who knows how many industries in the short/medium and even long term. But that schools are only closing because they are full of covid and can't open if staff are off sick. So if we don't operate a 'keep it out at all costs' system, there is an impact on someone, somewhere.

[quote wizzbangfizz]@MrsFezziwig but that is a worse case scenario - even at the height of the peaks the factories haven't shut down and anarchy hasn't happened - it's another doomsday scenario like the graphs. And as reluctant as I am to get into the schools debate - it's more likely people can't work because their kids are off it they shut which will have the worse consequences. [/quote]
One of the good factories close to us shut down for a month during the first peak. Quite a few factories/food processing plants/abbatoirs within the region have shut down due to outbreaks at various points.

True, not every factory has shut down at the same time, but for a while it was easy to see how if things got a bit worse a lot more would have closed and that would have added up to serious dusruption.

*food factories (although it is a good factory!)

By the rising case numbers, London should be going into tier 3, I hope the government doesn't wait until next week before they announce that and then give a few days notice resulting in lots of 'last' nights out.

But there will always be an impact on someone somewhere - but unending lockdowns aren't the answer. What about the impact on people's lives/jobs/the economy. It is my opinion and I haven't missed any point - I can't see the argument from both sides but I think it is madness to keep self harming ourselves. I'm just relieved that schools have remained open as a bare minimum.

You only have to look at the US to see that failing to control the virus can result in massive knock on effects, including threats to food supplies.

www.pig-world.co.uk/news/half-of-us-pork-production-capacity-removed-due-to-covid-19.html

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52311877

In real life I’m noticing a stark contrast between people who are thriving on all this lockdown drama - it’s bizarre - and those who are more sanguine about the whole thing.

It seems to correlate with what I’m reading on MN. People wetting themselves with excitement that London might soon be going into Tier 3 for example.

This will be a difficult drama to bring to an end for some people. It’s as if they’re hooked on the adrenaline of anticipating what kind of severeness of restriction some of us can be subjected to next.

@Nellee totally agree it has really bought out the worst in some people and I also think for a lot of people who can comfortably work from home it suits them (and I say that as someone who has worked from home since March and would give anything to be back in the office).

I think once the Oxford vaccine gets the approval and a proper vaccine schedule has been set out the country should go into another lockdown for 4 weeks (probably enhanced Tier 3 measures to protect the economy) - there is a very valid argument that the quickest way out of this is vaccination alongside low community growth. Vaccination alongside high numbers will take a lot longer.

I think if sold on that basis (and given how miserable January is anyway) that we could be out by March people would go along with it. I would also embrace a period of online learning (certainly for high school) if schools could benefit from more normality.

We need to be told a decent short term pain for long term gain plan - but one that has a proper exit strategy. And one in which people know is to really make light at the end of the tunnel and back to normal. But only alongside a proper vaccination plan

Although given our Brexit strategy that is clearly not going to happen....

@vjg13

By the rising case numbers, London should be going into tier 3, I hope the government doesn't wait until next week before they announce that and then give a few days notice resulting in lots of 'last' nights out.

Well in fairness, people shouldn't be able to have "last nights" out in London; they're only allowed to meet in groups of 6 outdoors and it's bloody freezing!

Fully expecting London, Essex and Kent to be tier 3 next week, though.

@Susanwouldntlikeit

Ventilators are counterproductive and the use of them killed more people unnecessarily before it was found months ago that they are entirely the wrong treatment. Do keep up.

Way to spectacularly miss the point of my post (and of course ventilators are still being used for the worst cases). Do keep up.

I'm really not "wetting myself with excitement" at the prospect of London being in tier 3! I live in Greater Manchester and we have had enhanced restrictions since the end of July and are currently tier 3 and likely to remain so unless they split off the lower figure boroughs.

@wizzbangfizz

But there will always be an impact on someone somewhere - but unending lockdowns aren't the answer. What about the impact on people's lives/jobs/the economy. It is my opinion and I haven't missed any point - I can't see the argument from both sides but I think it is madness to keep self harming ourselves. I'm just relieved that schools have remained open as a bare minimum

I’m not arguing for lockdown at all, just trying to debate the pros and cons of both scenarios. Bear in mind that that the peaks and high case numbers have been during some sort of lockdown, so do you think the number of people getting sick would be at the same level with no restrictions at all?

And I don’t think schools should be closed either, but my cousin’s child has just been sent home for the third time since September. Not an efficient way to be educated. Luckily he is (just) old enough to be at home by himself, but if he wasn’t then that would be another person having to take time off work to look after him. My cousin isn’t able to work from home.

I don't think that the figures would differ wildly to be honest, if we were in a society where people religiously stuck to the rules then yes maybe it would work, or like Australia we had short sharp strict bursts to get outbreaks under control.

As for schools, I agree inefficient in that case BUT more efficient that substandard home learning and more schools are open than not. Again a sledgehammer to crack a nut approach.

I noticed the elderly neighbours had their two teenage grandsons visiting the other week in the daytime. When they would otherwise be in school. Their dad brought them along when presumably they should have been self isolating. Admittedly they were in the garden but even so .....