Is there going to be lockdown part three in jan do you think ?

[Lardlizard]

?

I think it will stay the same.
The spread will be different- the kids are home, so less school driven spread. It will be among families, and there'll be a few superspreader events.

It will even out. It may be a different set of people infected though- notably the more vulnerable, so the hospitals will struggle.

I did assume we'd have a January lockdown, but- Boris will struggle to get it through parliament, we'll be at the crunch point from Brexit if these talks don't find a solution today, and the speed they are planning on vaccinating is much quicker than normal vaccination programs, which hopefully will bring death rates and hospital admissions down.

All in all, it might be too hard for Boris to justify another lockdown. Tier 3 in most areas feels more likely.

(Also the student thing - are there any left who haven't had it?! It seemed like in some halls, it had ripped through and they were all infected in a short period of time.)

I'm not sure it would pass in parliament so we'll end up with most of the country in tier 3.

Having seen pics of Xmas shoppers and inevitable gatherings at Xmas and NY, it's inevitable that there will be more cases.

I'm expecting it. Or for the whole country to be out into tier 3 as a minimum.

For a start there's all the mixing and then kids returning to school. Already that's the age group with rising cases while everyone else is decreasing.

It'll be pointless though because the schools will remain open with mitigation's. 🤷‍♀️

Obviously

Oh you can guarantee it.

The word will be that because people got together at Christmas, we didn't "squeeze the disease" (Johnson loves that one) and cases are rising. Then Schools, Colleges and Universities will go back, so it'll be same shit, different year.

Without mitigation's.

And before anyone jumps o think they need to stay open. But lockdown is point,was when they stay open and there is no safety measures.

I'm not sure that University returns will have a large effect. Firstly a good number have already had covid and the staggered returns and mass testing should greatly reduce the spread from those who catch it over the break.

It's become very clear that there is a core of people who refuse to act responsibly (and I'm not talking about those who don't for economic reasons) until they have either had covid or been vaccinated there's always going to be restrictions of some sort

Whether we'll have a lockdown in Jan is, as JVT would say, unknowable but we all have the power to make it unlikely.

Depends how quickly the most vulnerable get vaccinated

Oops pressed send too quickly. The fact that kids aren't in school for 2 weeks will help to drive the numbers down slightly, and the "free" Christmas visits will drive the numbers up slightly so it'll probably even out

I am a teacher in a large Secondary school, it's spreading a lot worse in schools than what anyone is letting on

Yes-I can’t see how allowing people ‘Christmas’ won’t cause problems that will need sorting by another one.

Of course. All the shops are packed, people mixing at Christmas.

It’s hardly going to send the rate down is it?

I would think it is almost definite we will. How many people are going to abide by the rules at Christmas and New Year?

For the first time in 40 years me and DH are having Christmas on our own. It is also the first time in over 60 years that I have not spent Christmas with my parents.

I am sad about it but we think it is the safe and sensible thing to do. Really Christmas should be cancelled.

I will be interested to see just how many of my neighbours abide by the 3 households rule. As most of them have never abided by the rules since the first lock down in March I doubt many of them will now.

The selfish attitude of far too is why so many people are getting or even dying from covid

OP doesn't seem to be interested in the replies.

I am a teacher in a large Secondary school, it's spreading a lot worse in schools than what anyone is letting on

I see this so often on here but it's not my experience, there must be huge regional variations. I have secondary age DC, have friends with children at different schools and experience of a sport that involves players from quite a wide area and non are experiencing any other than isolated cases.

It may a timing issue and next term will be worse, I don't know if anyone is researching this but I'd really like to know why things seem to be so different.

I agree it might not be a lockdown but it’ll probably be tier 3 pretty much everywhere. Which isn’t far off lockdown, just with shops and hairdressers/beauty salons open. And after the inevitable sales they won’t be busy anyway as it’s their quiet time of year.

I’m in a tier 3 area but seeing lots of people on social media in tier 2 areas out in restaurants etc with people they don’t live with. And if they are doing that now imagine how much of a shit they’ll give about sticking to the rules over Christmas.

I just can’t see there not being a spike after Christmas especially as January and February are a bad time of year for respiratory illness anyway.

@satnighttakeaway

I am a teacher in a large Secondary school, it's spreading a lot worse in schools than what anyone is letting on

I see this so often on here but it's not my experience, there must be huge regional variations. I have secondary age DC, have friends with children at different schools and experience of a sport that involves players from quite a wide area and non are experiencing any other than isolated cases.

It may a timing issue and next term will be worse, I don't know if anyone is researching this but I'd really like to know why things seem to be so different.

We were tier 1. Now 2.

We have approx 85-90 cases per 100,000.

Those cases are mainly care home and secondary schools.

At one point 50% of the cases when we hit 178/100k were in local secondary schools kids and staff and 25% of those 50 in just 1.

Having just had mh coffee and toast and caught up on news as usual Sunday am - I'm concerned we'll have risen by the time we reach Xmas mixing. The shopping crowds and people in pubs

Probably. Tier 2 here.
Went into school yesterday to collect child and there were 8 office staff huddled together not wearing masks (the person on reception behind a glass screen had a mask and visor on though) taking group pictures. It looked like someone's birthday or perhaps leaving....I was really surprised my jaw dropped 😩. After telling us to do x y and z there were all the people not bothering at all.
It's a large secondary and the students and teachers wear masks in corridors and when coming on and out but this bunch were unbelievable.

I think given how people from all over the country are going to mix up then yes another spike is definitely going to happen

People on this website love lockdown. I think you would be happy to spend the rest of your life in it. Sacrifice the economy and people’s wellbeing to save the few.

@Mintjulia

Yes, having seen pictures of Borough Market yesterday, and the Xmas fayre in Nottingham.

60,000 people are dead and they still think their fun is more important

At least they are outside. It might not impact too much.

To op I hope not.

@satnighttakeaway

I am a teacher in a large Secondary school, it's spreading a lot worse in schools than what anyone is letting on

I see this so often on here but it's not my experience, there must be huge regional variations. I have secondary age DC, have friends with children at different schools and experience of a sport that involves players from quite a wide area and non are experiencing any other than isolated cases.

It may a timing issue and next term will be worse, I don't know if anyone is researching this but I'd really like to know why things seem to be so different.

It does seem highly variable. Two cases since September. I wonder if being hit hard in March is a factor.

@RosieLemonade

People on this website love lockdown. I think you would be happy to spend the rest of your life in it. Sacrifice the economy and people’s wellbeing to save the few.

I don't think that's true at all. I don't want any more lockdowns, I am thoroughly sick of it all but have accepted that what is being permitted over Christmas will most likely lead to another one, or at least further restrictions.

Nobody loves lockdown.

No because children will have been off school for a few weeks. I think this will counteract the few days at Xmas to be honest

We’re in Tier 3. Fully half of my children’s primary are isolating due to popped bubbles in half the classes. I’ve had four days since the start of November with both my kids in school as they are on a constant round of going back, someone getting a positive test and the bubble pops again. It’s worse than lockdown because then whichever child’s bubble it is has to stay in and can’t go beyond the garden so we can’t even go for a walk except in shifts (difficult as my husband is out at work every day and it’s dark before and after so I feel pretty much housebound as well). They are both due back in school for the final week of term; I know there will be another positive case and at least one of them will be isolating over Christmas. It’s wildly out of control where we are.

But still, parents aren’t wearing masks or social distancing on the school run. The kids are playing out as normal when they’re supposed to isolate. It won’t stop spreading here and Christmas will make it so much worse.

I’m not putting anything in my diary for January and I’ve cleared my work schedule because I know I’ll be home schooling all month because as soon as they’re back in, the bubbles will start closing again all over the place.

So here, I can only see lockdown in practice even if not officially in name extending until February/March. It’s absolutely shit.