To think this time loads of people are not going to comply

[FloMillie]

Been speaking to family and friends and the general mood appears to be that this time round is different.

Most people say they are going to break the covid rules. Obviously they can’t go out to restaurants or stuff but they said they will have friends and family round.

I think people and govt may be overestimating compliance this time around.

Could we be left with an ineffective lockdown that only serves to further damage the economy?

Anyone who is happy to take the risk has never been in the position of struggling for breath. It's fucking terrifying and something imbeciles take for granted.

The lockdown isn't even that harsh, you can still go out, you can shop, you can got to school/college/uni, you can still meet one person outside, still use childcare providers, still get a take away.

Literally all you can't do is have gatherings, sit in an eating establishment or pub or go to they gym. 🤦🏻‍♀️

@SheepandCow excellent article by Prof Sridhar, I particularly picked out this bit:

The best option, for the health of people and that of the economy, is to pursue a “maximum suppression” approach, which means pushing numbers low enough to avoid a repeated cycle of lockdowns. Crucially, this doesn’t mean an actual lockdown, but a strategy similar to that seen in east Asian and Pacific countries: stronger border measures to prevent reimportation of the virus, good guidance to the public about how to avoid crowded settings and, most importantly, a robust system of testing, tracing and isolating. This would include financial support, generously paying those who test positive with the virus to stay at home.

I saw Prof Sridhar on TV before BoJo's broadcast.

She speaks so much sense.

We need someone like her to spearhead campaigns to educate the public.

Anyone who is happy to take the risk has never been in the position of struggling for breath. It's fucking terrifying and something imbeciles take for granted.

Sure about that?

I think people will comply, on the whole. You'll get people who feel ideologically opposed to the lockdown doing a lot of tutting and might nudge the rules to feel in control but then will fall in to step for no other reason than it is the path of least resistance.

I think most people will comply. Lockdoens are brutal, but effective. My sister has just come out of lock down in Melbourne & they have almost eliminated the virus. Not that we can do that here, but at least get on top of track and trace.

@HotToCold

I think it should be law:

Don't follow the rules = Cant run to the NHS when you catch Covid !

Do you actually think that should be a law, or do you just like the soundbite?

Because taken to its logical conclusion, nobody would be allowed to use the NHS. At the end of the day many illnesses and injuries are caused by behaviour

• obese people shouldnt use the NHS if they get heart disease
• drinkers shouldnt get help for liver cirrhosis
• smokers shouldnt use the NHS if they get lung cancer
• pregnant women with health complications shouldn't use the NHS, they shouldn't have risked getting pregnant
• people injured in car accidents or DIY shouldnt be allowed to use the NHS, they should have avoided those activities
• anyone who gets an STI or HIV doesn't deserve treatment either, they should have used a condom

And so on.... who is "worthy" of treatment in your opinion?

I'll be following the rules as I have throughout. I don't know anyone who's said they'll do what they want but yeah people are pissed off. I'm now also in the camp of what's the point when I'll end up catching it soonish from one of my children. It seems every school in my area has already had multiple cases. I imagine it'll be worse now that they're going back after half term. Nobody in my household has a large risk of death but I do worry about long term issues from covid. Bit of a ramble but my main point is I'll be following restrictions. We'll likely catch it from the school since our workplaces have actual safety measures in place but I won't be the one sending an infected child to school to potentially pass on a virus that could kill their teacher or one of their classmates parents

@PhilCornwall1

Anyone who is happy to take the risk has never been in the position of struggling for breath. It's fucking terrifying and something imbeciles take for granted.

Sure about that?

Well either that or there is something else going on, breathing is the most basic thing that people do and when it's restricted it's frightening, not a mild inconvenience in my experience it's a really torturous or getting a breath in, it's slow suffocation, painful. I can't imagine taking the risk of that's what you might end up with. I say that as someone who spends a lot of time in the CF world and I have first hand knowledge from a PE and heart disease, I'm a very level headed, can person but not being able to breathe after waking a few metres was haunting for me.

Anyone who is happy to take the risk has never been in the position of struggling for breath
Incorrect

Literally all you can't do is have gatherings, sit in an eating establishment or pub or go to they gym
Also

• go to a shop which is deemed non essential
• get married
• stay anywhere overnight
• visit ill or dying relatives for possibly the last time
• have the necessary support during birth and postpartum
• run a business which involves shopping, eating, hospitality, hair and beauty etc.
• get access to certain "non essential" health treatments or counselling
• go swimming
• participate in team sports
• attend parent and baby support and development groups

To name a few.

OP would these be the same sort of people who ignore quarantine rules when returning from holidays abroad, or who do not self isolate when they are supposed to do so, who flouted rules about households mixing, who don't bother with masks?

@SheepandCow

Anyway. It looks like Nigel Farage's new party will get lots of support. Judging by posts on Mumsnet. He's setting up an anti lockdown party (presumably once he gets home from the US, where he's been helping Trump campaign).

I think Nige should spend some time volunteering in ICU Covid wards without PPE

I think those with a poor educational attainment will not comply because they can't work out why it's important to comply.

@Wherehavetheteletubbiesgone Germany have had a lower death rate than us because their health system is better. Every winter we get to crisis point because we don't have enough beds even for usual illnesses.

Look at the huge cost of lockdown and imagine the lives we could have saved in the past and would do in the future if we funded the health service properly. Imagine the lives we would save if we dealt with air pollution properly. Anyway we are not going to have the money to do any of those things.

I totally agree with people talking up thread about improved track and trace and paying people to self isolate. Actually if I thought that we were going to do those things properly at the end of it then I would be in favour of the lockdown. But there doesn't seem to be any plan for that so I think this lockdown will have to be repeated and we are on track to wreck our economy with repeated lockdowns.

I have no doubt a short, sharp lockdown in March followed by suppression once the cases were low enough would have better for our economy. But instead we had a long lockdown, track and trace run by the government's friends at Deloittes instead of public health experts and eat out to help out. So we are in the current rather depressing situation.

I think those with a poor educational attainment will not comply because they can't work out why it's important to comply.

And then, if schools were forced to close as a result, their children won't get a chance of a good education..!

Well either that or there is something else going on, breathing is the most basic thing that people do and when it's restricted it's frightening, not a mild inconvenience in my experience

I know exactly what it feels like, that's why I asked the question.

And then, if schools were forced to close as a result, their children won't get a chance of a good education

To be fair if you have poorly educated parents who don’t value education themselves...those kids don’t really have a chance anyway. A rare few will break through perhaps.

Everyone here is and has done pretty much

People will only comply with the rules in the long term if:

• the rules make sense
• everyone is expected to follow them (ie they apply to politicians, advisers and the rich too...)
• the rules potentially don't cause more harm than good
• there is an exit strategy for these draconian rules to end
• the government implementing the rules can be trusted.

Lockdowns come with a lot of collateral damage (job loses, mental health crisis...) and many of the details don't make sense (why not close schools/universities when they play such a big part in infections?).

I am still not clear as to what the exit strategy is as the government fails continuously to fix track/trace/isolate.

Gove also scored an own goal by stating the lockdown might not end on 2nd December and they are now refusing to release the 'dossier' from scientists that prompted this lockdown.

So yes, there is a big problem here that will only get bigger.

I am not planning on breaking the 'rules' until 2nd Dec but frankly after that I think we are heading towards mass protests.

I think there’s different levels of breaking the rules. Going to a 700 strong rave? Absolutely not. Having my baby be the “7th” person at the Christmas table? Definitely yes. There also HAS to be a risk analysis on mental health. So many people suffered unnecessarily in the last lockdown. A couple of small “bends” in the rules this time and you’ll probably save more people from mental health issues. Thankfully this time around we are allowed support bubbles, childcare bubbles etc. I think a lot of people will be using common sense and using these allowances.

Everyone I know is intending to comply, but many use grandparents or friends for childcare and will continue to do so, so the virus will still spread.

I think if schools shut people would comply more, it would be utterly shit but make it seem more serious.

I'm in Wales so we're in lockdown already. We are fully complying, and last lockdown I would say most of our neighbours did too, but this time round I would say far less people are. One day last week 3 separate neighbours had family in and out of their houses (I was sitting in the window reading not spying on them!), clearly just visiting, and trick and treating went on pretty much as normal round here with people leaving buckets of sweets out for kids to dig their hands into. Sadly I think it's going to have to get really really bad before people get over the 'I'll assess my own risk / it won't be that bad if I get it" mentality.

I'm having a pretty tough time of it (lost job, dumped by husband, no friends locally - last saw someone as in a friend in the flesh in August, actually called The Samaritans as so low and been frightened at my mindset) but still complying because I strongly believe if we all pull in different directions this will go on harder for longer.

No I don't believe this will rid Covid, it merely buys us time for our hospital staff and hospital accessibility for that breast lump we might find, sudden appendicitis, a fall my elderly parents may have etc.

Also, just because I comply does not mean I'm happy ,finding it easier than others or agree with the guidelines.

I think it's selfish to find a loophole, disregard the rules or not comply where you can.

Even if you hate the government and the decisions makes. Do you really disregard those NHS workers putting their health on the line day in and day out, just so they an care for you and your loved ones, and not just for Covid.