My prediction is that he's going to give us a Sweden challenge.
Sweden didn't lock down because everyone stayed home without need for declaring one.
So we'll be told to stay home as much as we possibly can other than for education, work that absolutely cannot be WFH and for medical and care reasons. But businesses can stay open if they wish, though they will need to be 'realistic' about footfall.
And that is over and above the formal tier restrictions.
The shielded will be recalled to isolation (but will be allowed daily outdoors exercise, and singletons can keep their bubble buddy)
it will be over to us, because with a heavy heart the government will not shy away from lockdown if these measures do not work.
Then over next fortnight there will be lots of incomprehensible graphs with inadequately labelled axes on things like public transport use, high street footfall, numbers WFH etc plus contagion stats.
And all will cumulate in proper lockdown anyway in about the 3rd week Nov, still with a Christmas carrot, but also with heavy overtones of 'it has to be rules because we just don't do self-restraint'