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Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 17:20

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

Our STUDIES Corner

OP posts:
Thread gallery
81
BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 22:17

English Regional Cases

North West: 5468
Yorkshire and The Humber: 4129
London: 2862
West Midlands: 2427
East Midlands: 1949
North East: 1888
South East: 1709
East of England: 1349
South West: 980

Charts and 7-day incidence from COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats, to 15 Oct (cutoff before any data lag)

NE is the only region with a fall, with only small increases for NW, Yorkshire & Humber - all levelling off after recent sharp rises
SE also has only a small increase and has the lowest 7-day incidence
W Midlands has the fastest rate of increase, 24.3 %

Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses
Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses
OP posts:
FingonTheValiant · 21/10/2020 22:17

I found some more up to date info about schools here. Just schools, no universities.

On the 15th October (half term started on the 16th for 2 weeks) : 27 schools were entirely closed, 22 primary, 3 collèges, 2 lycées. In the open schools, there were 293 closed classes, all providing distance learning. For a class to be closed, there has to be a minimum of three confirmed cases.

In the 7 days leading to the 15th, 8223 pupils tested positive, with 1713 of those added the 15th. In the same 7 days, 2063 school staff tested positive, 440 added on the 15th.

French public health declared schools to be the primary source of circulation of the virus. On the 15th the education minister said that the situation in schools was stable and under control, and that they are therefore not a «nest» of covid, despite what public health said.

On the 13th October : 39 children aged 0-14 8n hospital. 7 in ICU.

Final week of September, one child aged 0-14 died. Added to two others since March.

FeelingBlueAgain · 21/10/2020 22:23

English Regional Cases

North West: 5468
Yorkshire and The Humber: 4129
London: 2862
West Midlands: 2427
East Midlands: 1949
North East: 1888
South East: 1709
East of England: 1349
South West: 980

Is there any data available on the number of tests carried out in each region, otherwise high/low positive rates may just reflect high/low number of tests taken rather than any trend?

Coquohvan · 21/10/2020 22:43

This paragraph stood out!
The new rules will mean that if one child tests positive for the virus, they will be required to self-isolate at home, but “class will continue normally for the other pupils, who will no longer be considered as contacts”
www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Covid-19-France-More-than-half-the-country-now-red-zone-for-coronavirus-as-schools-relax-rules

President Macrons wife Bridget has gone into isolation as a contact Tested positive. Not clear yet if the President has to isolate.

The area where our holiday home is has gone into the Red with the restrictions involved.

ginsparkles · 21/10/2020 22:43

Thank you @BigChocFrenzy

TheSunIsStillShining · 21/10/2020 22:54

Details from Hungary and some examples of how others are doing.
Current data

R is said to be 1.03%, but the doubling time of new cases is about 14 days. From the top of my head this seems contradictory, but my braincells are on holiday so someone pls. correct me.

Positivity rate of tests is 15%.
Usual number of tests daily is between 7k-10k
Median age at time of death from coronavirus is 80 for women and 75 for men.
There is an independent group who do visualizations, here is the age dispersion of deaths in Hungary. It is very visual. If you hover over a point it will tell you exact age.
the black horizontal line is age: 65, pink women/blue: men
(atlo.team/koronamonitor/)
economic data
GDP down ~14% in Q2.

Hungary is part of the EU wide shit-study :) Without knowing hungarian it's actually easy to understand the weekly results here:
www.nnk.gov.hu/index.php/koronavirus-tajekoztato/863-stagnal-a-szennyvizben-a-koronavirus-orokitoanyaga (Hungarian PHE)
green: going down / yellow: no change / red: going up

The country with 9.5m ppl fared really well in the first wave, but locked borders, shut schools and businesses en par with Austria.
Then everything went back to normal, minimal restrictions over the summer, borders open. In August figures started rising after everyone fled to Croatia, Greece and Italy, but by beginning of Sept when all schools (incl unis) opened f2f it was still at 189/100k.
Now its slightly above 500/100k.
There is no real talk about coronavirus amongst the general population (as I hear from lots of friends and family), media is full of local or int'l news not related to covid.
General knowledge is quite poor.

No schools require mandatory masks, no extra funding for hand washing gels or aircons (typically there is no ventilation other than the window in about at least half of schools or more).

End of last week the PM cautioned that ppl should think twice about booking their ski trip ('tis the time), but must have spoken to some friend (crony) because early this week he has stated that it will be perfectly safe (in Feb/March, 2021) to go to Austria for a skiing trip or two.

On the official (gov) coronavirus information page under the Fresh News section I can read about how A-level students chose french and english more than german and something else. Or about how single parent families should buy homes with the gov scheme that rewards having kids (basically you promise to have 1-2-3 more kids and you get x/2x/3x amount of low interest loan to buy property. If you can't get to your target kid number your loan will skyrocket)
Borders are quasi shut. There is a huge list of why non-hungarian people might be allowed to enter. Basically if you say something at all you are allowed in. Or not, based on the actual official's mood that day. (sorry anecdata of friend's english wife being denied entry to an event that is otherwise on the list)

There are about 5-600 ICU beds in the country, but not equally distributed. And the real number is guarded as top secret so this is a best guess. At the height of the pandemic there were about 200 people in ICU, but then the daily new cases were around a 100 or below. Now there is no real data coming out of gov wrt healthcare that is believable and healthcare workers had to sign a full NDA. Patient's phones are taken away so that they won't take photos. If they manage to than they will face prosecution as it is illegal to take photos or videos inside any healthcare facility.

Budapest is the worst hit. 1.9m ppl live there and there are/were 15k+ cases. For the lie of me can't find the breakdown, so not really useful.

the Hungarian ONS has no mention of covid on their site and it takes a lot of skill to get to useless covid related data.

Fun fact: A month ago it made headline news that 13 (of 48 total) tube station now have hand sanitizing stations.
Given how I have no tube station in my vicinity, can someone actually say if we have any sanitizing stations in tube stations?

Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses
FingonTheValiant · 21/10/2020 22:59

Coquohvan yes, which makes getting the three positive tests required to close a class very tricky. The TA in DS3's class tested positive, and they just carried on as normal. There are children as young as 2 in that class, she must have been in very close contact.

Just an FYI, the way they are categorising the departements in that article is already out of date. This is the new system :

www.linternaute.com/actualite/guide-vie-quotidienne/2516001-carte-covid-nouveaux-departements-en-alerte-maximale-les-derniers-chiffres-1603293297.amphtml/

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 23:00

"R is said to be 1.03%, but the doubling time of new cases is about 14 days."

Um, does not compute, or my brain cells have given up on Wednesday too

OP posts:
user1473774037 · 21/10/2020 23:01

Thank you, been reading with interest - has been my main source of data, and sanity.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 23:03

@FeelingBlueAgain

English Regional Cases

North West: 5468
Yorkshire and The Humber: 4129
London: 2862
West Midlands: 2427
East Midlands: 1949
North East: 1888
South East: 1709
East of England: 1349
South West: 980

Is there any data available on the number of tests carried out in each region, otherwise high/low positive rates may just reflect high/low number of tests taken rather than any trend?

... % Positivity is also higher in the regions with more cases It's not just more testing
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 23:05

Hospitalisations - posted upthread - and deaths also higher in regions of high positives

OP posts:
Coquohvan · 21/10/2020 23:07

@FingonTheValiant
Gosh 2 yr old got a wee grandchild that age. Just posted that link as it is in English. No doubt see updates on his position soon.
Take care

MRex · 21/10/2020 23:08

Info from other countries is interesting, thank you @FingonTheValiant, @Coquohvan and @TheSunIsStillShining (hopefully haven't missed anyone).

On hand sanitisers - apparently we have / will have them, sorry but I haven't been on the train since March to know how widespread they are: tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2020/september/tfl-and-dettol-partner-to-help-customers-keep-their-hands-clean-while-travelling-in-london

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 23:12

Excellent info from around Europe, Fingon, Coquohvan, TheSun

OP posts:
TheSunIsStillShining · 21/10/2020 23:16

@BigChocFrenzy

Excellent info from around Europe, Fingon, Coquohvan, TheSun
Thank you :) I wasn't sure about the story part, but I tagged it so ppl can easily skip

Also thanks for reassuring me that things don't compute. I'm trying to find official data, but if we think it's hard here, then I don't even have words for what's over there (rather lack of....). It's disgusting.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 23:21

Sewage study

For those of us clattering the loo seat in impatience for UK results, we had this appetiser from the sewage study in Stockholm, which correctly showed infection rising again

Their KTH (public health) been very diligent and forward-thinking, having taken weekly samples since April, as an early warning system

https://www.kth.se/en/aktuellt/nyheter/avloppsvatten-visar-stor-okning-av-covid-19-i-stockholm-1.1016275

Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses
OP posts:
FeelingBlueAgain · 21/10/2020 23:29

Fun fact: A month ago it made headline news that 13 (of 48 total) tube station now have hand sanitizing stations.
Given how I have no tube station in my vicinity, can someone actually say if we have any sanitizing stations in tube stations?

Not travelled widely but every station i've been in has hand sanitiser both tube and overground.

FeelingBlueAgain · 21/10/2020 23:31

Oops - i'm talking London tube/overground here - must be more than 48 stations so possibly my country wires are crossed!

Quarantino · 21/10/2020 23:31

Sorry if discussed recently but I can no longer seem to download the data behind the map at coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

  • the link on the normal 'cases' page now only says 'download card data' but doesn't seem to do anything or give me the file type options. Just a temporary glitch?
BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 23:34

@Quarantino

Sorry if discussed recently but I can no longer seem to download the data behind the map at coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
  • the link on the normal 'cases' page now only says 'download card data' but doesn't seem to do anything or give me the file type options. Just a temporary glitch?
... It just gives me the map, no other datafile to download
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 23:36

If I go to cases on the dash, I get the 3 file types to download, as before

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 23:37

I can only look at csv on my ipad, but that's ok

OP posts:
Quarantino · 21/10/2020 23:37

Hmm, maybe it was the old map (the argis one) that let you download the data behind it. I definitely looked at MSOA level on a spreadsheet!

Quarantino · 21/10/2020 23:39

Yes it was. My mistake, sorry - it was useful though!

FingonTheValiant · 21/10/2020 23:45

[quote Coquohvan]@FingonTheValiant
Gosh 2 yr old got a wee grandchild that age. Just posted that link as it is in English. No doubt see updates on his position soon.
Take care[/quote]
It's a PS/MS class. The youngest in PS start when they're still 2 and all turn 3 before January. PS still nap in the afternoon, so the TA sorts out the bedding in the dormitory etc, as well as usual toilet/runny noses/crying/cuddling type contact.

I wasn't complaining about the article, sorry, it was just to let you know Smile it's changed a few times in a short space of time - we now have deep red and scarlet beyond basic red Confused