Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

@TheSunIsStillShining

I'm guessing the DfE isn't interested in private school data. They should be but i suspect they are not.

We use just X code as well AFAIK.

@Augustbreeze

And presumably it's PHE that decides who has been exposed to Covid in your educational setting??

AFAIK it's the school's responsibility to do the contact tracing within their setting.

@Piggywaspushed
That wouldn't affect attendance figures thoughMRex.

It does because they aren't attending, same as Leicester etc. That's why the DofE issued two different stats reports this week, one to exclude those absent due to half term. Link is in the OP.

We have a separate code for isolating and positive.

From the Guardian:

A coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through much of Europe since the summer, and now accounts for the majority of new Covid-19 cases in several countries, including 80% in the UK, the Financial Times (paywall) reports.

An international team of scientists that has been tracking the virus through its genetic mutations described the extraordinary spread of the variant, called 20A.EU1, in a research paper to be published on Thursday.

Their work suggests that people returning from holiday in Spain played a key role in transmitting the virus across Europe, raising questions about whether the second wave that is sweeping the continent could have been reduced by improved screening at airports and other transport hubs.

Here is the link to the underlying research:

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf

@TheSunIsStillShining AFAIK it's the school's responsibility to do the contact tracing within their setting.

Yes but not to decide how it's spreading, they would have involved PH for two or more cases. At least that's the theory!

Right mRex, I see,but I thought these figures were for overall school attendance. Non attendance outside of term time is not counted as absence. Tbh, the whole thing is a shambles.

@walksen

I'm at risk of speculating here but now that the number of people in hospital is what 50% of the April peak, deaths at 300 a day and likely to double every 2 or 3 weeks, daily infections comparable to the march lockdown, then waiting to see what tier 3 does to r may mean the impact on the NHS may well pass the first wave within a few weeks?

If current rate of growth both for numbers in hospital with Covid and for deaths (ONS measure) continued until the end of November/early December then hospital numbers and deaths would equal or exceed the previous peaks at that time. (Average 1000 deaths per day and 25000 in hospital by end of November if both continued doubling at current rate which is every 14 days or so.)

Remains to be seen if that happens, but given lag, it looks like 500 deaths per day by mid November is already quite likely/unavoidable.

Article in the TES today saying headteachers have now discovered they are also 'accidentally' responsible for contact tracing during holidays, so a 365 day working year. They are expected by public health/DfE to be contacting families during the holiday and instruct to SI and , obviously, fielding lots of PH questions...

[quote wintertravel1980]From the Guardian:

A coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through much of Europe since the summer, and now accounts for the majority of new Covid-19 cases in several countries, including 80% in the UK, the Financial Times (paywall) reports.

An international team of scientists that has been tracking the virus through its genetic mutations described the extraordinary spread of the variant, called 20A.EU1, in a research paper to be published on Thursday.

Their work suggests that people returning from holiday in Spain played a key role in transmitting the virus across Europe, raising questions about whether the second wave that is sweeping the continent could have been reduced by improved screening at airports and other transport hubs.

Here is the link to the underlying research:

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf[/quote]
Or maybe people should be responsible and not travel. Holiday is not essential.
I am really curious about border closure measures in ski holiday season.
My guess is that Europe -even by then- will be reliant upon personal responsibility, And if by then we manage to get control back over the virus through lockdown ppl will go skiing, and start the full cycle again. All in the name of "We had enough of lockdown" ... oh the irony.

Sorry not related to schools, but just wondering if anyone knows whether positive cases are registered to the test site or the persons home address? I remember this discussion was had on a previous thread but don't remember what the conclusion was.

Looking at LAs in the north west, the neighbouring LAs of Liverpool and Knowsley both show a pattern of positive cases that are remarkably different from the others but very similar to one other, rising much higher and earlier than elsewhere with numbers now on the decline. In Liverpool this could be partly to do with students, as there are three universities and the timing would be about right. Knowsley has no universities though and isn't a area where students from Liverpool generally live. However, there was quite a while where the nearest walk through test centre for Liverpool was in Knowsley, and students are less likely to have cars than the general community, so may have been tested there - could that be an explanation for the similarity?

@IntrinsicFieldSubtractor
I think tests are attributed to postcodes where people live (they have to input these to get an appointment) not where they are tested. Also a large proportion are sent to home address.

Afaik some smaller local authorities don’t actually have any test sites. Warrington didn’t for a while.

Regarding students though there is a theory that some are putting home rather than uni address but I’m not quite sure how this can be true unless they go all the way home to get tested which I suspect is not true.

And presumably it's PHE that decides who has been exposed to Covid in your educational setting??

And this seems to be entirely variable depending on the area and phe team, taking local infections into account. Probably also how H and S and risk assessments are working.

Sorry not related to schools, but just wondering if anyone knows whether positive cases are registered to the test site or the persons home address? I remember this discussion was had on a previous thread but don't remember what the conclusion was.

Not sure as I know Newcastle have been at pains to breakdown student data who were reg to a dr surgery elsewhere.

So I've even wondered if it's linked to Gp address?! Though nhs number should link to a home address.

Off the dashboard

From Rp131 excellent analysis; Liverpool proportion of cases (and also in terms with actual numbera) over 60 years old and also over 70 is double that of Manchester. Why would this be? It’s a concern for Liverpool as this is what will drive the hospitalizations.

Local news just announced Oxford is going into tier 2

This thread is nearly full.... now we are sadly minus BCF is anyone able to take the links to start another. @PatriciaHolm I think you had started a few of the old style threads?

happy to start one, though I may just link to this one for the links at the top as I haven't worked out a quick way to replicate them without typing them all out again....!!!!

Doing a link seems the easiest way to go.

That would be great thanks @PatriciaHolm

Expert reaction to latest COVID-19: nowcast and forecast, by the University of Cambridge MRC Biostatistics Unit

The MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge have released their latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19.

Prof James Naismith FRS FRSE FMedSci, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said:

“Nowcasting is an important study from a well-regarded expert group. The headline numbers are rather different than the REACT survey, an equally well regarded expert group. These studies use different data and methods to estimate the daily number of new infections and the doubling time in England.

“However, both this group and the REACT group are very careful to estimate the uncertainty in their numbers. For something moving as quickly as Covid19, there is always going to be uncertainty. This is the scientific process, the 95 % confidence intervals from each study for new cases per day are REACT (86, 000 to 105, 000) Nowcast (38,400–81,600).

“We can be rapid or we can be precise. These studies and the ONS data tomorrow will be extremely useful in understanding where we are.

“It would be really helpful if the media could also report the uncertainty in the estimates as well as headline numbers. The scientists who do this work are extremely careful to spell these out and it is crucial for the public to know about these uncertainties and understand what they mean.

“Our elected representatives have to make decisions with this imperfect data. If the virus is growing rapidly, then waiting until we are sure will result in significant additional deaths and illness resulting from the virus that could have been saved. It will require other scientists (psychology, economics, community health, social scientists) to estimate the damage done by further restrictions.

“As a scientist I note the trend in other counties, the virus is spreading rapidly. I would therefore expect, but do not know, that the virus will behave similarly in the UK. The REACT survey supports this view. The data from the Nowcasting however indicate that although the virus is growing it is doing so more slowly, giving some hope that we might peak soon. However, I would emphasise that taking these studies together or individually, we can be almost certain that we will see an increase in the number of deaths per day from covid19 over the next few weeks and each death will represent a tragedy for the families and friends left behind.”

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-29th-october-2020/

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-latest-covid-19-nowcast-and-forecast-by-the-university-of-cambridge-mrc-biostatistics-unit/

New thread linky

and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

@Piggywaspushed

We use just X code as well AFAIK.

Ours had numbers it counts down the days until they are back.