Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

If it's pure data stop filling the thread with thank yous and place marking!
Just follow it!

Devon seems to be all over the place, Exeter going down, Plymouth and Torbay going up, South Hams staying pretty low. I wonder how we will be after half term if we get lots of visitors? Not worth coming really, weather awful, lots of stuff shut, lots of stuff expensive, not beach weather.

Thanks for continuing the post BGF and thanks for everyone who manage to dig our relevant data with links back to (trusted) source

If it's pure data stop filling the thread with thank yous and place marking!
Just follow it!

Good point.

@ancientgran

Devon seems to be all over the place, Exeter going down, Plymouth and Torbay going up, South Hams staying pretty low. I wonder how we will be after half term if we get lots of visitors? Not worth coming really, weather awful, lots of stuff shut, lots of stuff expensive, not beach weather.

Exeter is probably the university effect

Scottish Hospitality restrictions/Break extended for a further week until 2/11
Planning also bringing in a new Strategic Framework for 5 Tier details to be announced this Friday.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54631004

Ting Tastic very true, although Plymouth has two unis and the figures have been low, alot lower than Exeter but seem higher today, well almost the same as Exeter.

I won't post a link as it is on the Govt dashboard with all the other places.

The explanation I've heard for student figure difference with Exeter and Plymouth is that Exeter has a wider catchment area, Plymouth students are often local. I don't know the figures so can't confirm that but I suppose they will be available somewhere.

Exeter is Russell Group - will attract students from all over the country. Plymouth is not. Although excellent in at least one area I happen to know a little about that and it's location will probably mean a higher proportion of more local students. I doubt data is readily available, although the universities themselves would know. And sorry @ancientgran but it's always worth visiting the west country as long as you have the right clothing, although Cornwall's ridiculously expensive parking is putting me off.

Ignore my pm, @BigChocFrenzy - although a bit disappointed you didnt label it the time out data thread

National bed use figure again up by over 400.

Would be happier about Liverpool if the positivity rate was lower but at least it is going down.

So why would unis with much wider catchment areas have more infections? Because they bring some from higher risk areas? Because they mix more strains together? Because their more middle class students have been abroad in the summer, or they party harder?? Just speculating here!

And if this is true, if the community infection level is very high, what happens there, eg did the students at Newcastle have lower infection rates than those at Northumbria - yes, presumably, going on the 770 odd positives headlines we saw a few weeks ago for Northumbria.

I know that the link between ventilation and the spread of Covid is an area of interest to many on this thread, so here is a link to some recent University of Cambridge research on the topic:

www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/many-ventilation-systems-may-increase-risk-of-covid-19-exposure-study-suggests?utm_source=en1020&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alumni

alreadytaken we will have to agree to disagree on the west country. I hate it, want to move to a city, any city.

Would be happier about Liverpool if the positivity rate was lower but at least it is going down.

The % of covid deaths in Liverpool is the thing to watch. Its gone up again today. It think its starting to track upwards in a trend (they don't do it on weekends and I've not necessarily made a note of every day, but this is what I have made a note of.

Between 3rd - 9th October there were 124 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 22.5% (n=29) were Covid-19 deaths.

Between 6th - 12th October 2020 there were 125 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 20.8% (n=26) were COVID-19 deaths.

Between 07 - 13 October 2020 there were 119 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 23% (n=27) were Covid-19 deaths

Between 08 - 14 October 2020 there were 142 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 23% (n=33) were Covid-19 deaths.

Between 9th-15th October 2020 there were 156 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 23% (n=36) were Covid-19 deaths.

Between 10 - 16 October 2020 there were 169 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 26% (n=44) were Covid-19 deaths.

Between 13th - 19th October 2020 there were 179 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 30% (n=54) were Covid-19 deaths.

Between 14 - 20 October 2020 there were 191 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 32% (n=61) were COVID-19 deaths

I THINK this will pick up more sharply in the next week or two even if the number of cases stays stable.

Augustbreeze, I don't know why there is a difference but two things spring to mind, one is, and this is just an observation as I don't have data, I think Plymouth might attract more mature students and Exeter students did seem to party hard, local police have certainly handed out fines for student parties. Here's a link www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/police-break-up-student-parties-4615958 I can't find anything similar for Plymouth but might be something in a local paper.

As the medics have always said more deaths are "baked in" now. Short term their bed use will also rise, drops take time to feed through.

ancient gran I did say "visit" not live - but if you are a city person I can see why Devon's not for you.

@Augustbreeze Plymouth is a low incidence level, as is Exeter. But Exeter will draw in more students from higher risk areas. It's not necessarily true of all unis with a wide catchment - Manchester would draw from across the country, including lower risk areas.

alreadytaken, sorry I hate it so much I missed the visit bit. Our real problem is my husband's colour, multiculturalism isn't popular where I live. Oddly enough husband loves it and rises above the issues, it upsets me more than him but I suppose he has had a lifetime of it. I swear I'd happily move back to the inner city area I grew up in, one of the worst areas in the city but people who either ignore you or welcome you but no one insults you.

I hope you enjoy your visit. Apparently the stats are looking good for the hospitality trade which is good news for alot of people.

Ignore me if you've done this to death in earlier threads but can someone explain a) why positivity rates matter and b) how their significance, and the interpretation of other key data, might be affected by changes in behaviour around testing (eg reduced numbers of symptomatic people, or contacts of known cases, seeking tests)? TIA

Z x c v

Thank you for the mask information.

My main take away is that masks help to reduce transmission even with a certain amount of leakage due too...

Slowing the momentum of breath emmison.

Thank you!

Our Studies thread has several links with evidence that masks work to reduce transmission considerably

People are looking at using UVC light to disinfect public space - lights could possibly be used in ventilation systems. www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67211-2

@zxcv123 thanks. Interestingly Germany has committed to 500million Euros to improve ventilation in public buildings. Obviously not counting on a silver bullet out of this Pandemic.

Indeed zxcv the DfE have added some quite forceful stuff to their guidelines today about ventilating schools.
Am not holding my breath although maybe I should

www.tes.com/news/covid-keep-classrooms-well-ventilated-schools-told

@Grausse

Thanks BCF. I thought of this thread (and BCF) when I read about the two week circuit breaker in Berchtesgadener Land. It's behind a paywall so to summarise; It was said to be because cases had exceeded 270 per 100k and Marcus Soder the regional minister said " There is no other way, we can no longer trace all the contact chains so we must restrict contacts" It made me wonder if there is a level beyond which T&T is hopeless regardless of how much money is spent / how incompetent the system.

.... Yes, any t&t system will have limits for how many contacts is feasible to track through the chains

That happened in the first wave too:
The public health authorities reported that in the peak weeks they were only able to track a fraction of cases
They definitely slowed down the rate of increase then, but it wasn't enough

t&t has since been expanded a lot, both locally and a central pool to be called as needed

I think that small adminstrative district (only 100,000 people iirc) would have had their own public health service boosted by the central pool
but in the end they were sucking in too many resources

Hence what is basically a local lockdown of those 100k people

@Piggywaspushed thanks that’s brilliant I’ll pass that on to friends who are having to remind Heads 🙄. It was in Telegraph Germany are instructing children to wear coats, gloves and bring blankets into class as they’ve changed to windows fully not slightly open.