Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Exeter claimed to recently have 5400 international students. Plymouth claimed to have 3000 international students. Not very different for origin diversity.

Wikipedia says Plymouth is the bigger Uni.

Essential of course not to let that district, which has the highest rate in Germany, spread infection further than it alread has.
It's another Alpine town btw; you may remember the Austrian Alp resort of Iggl was a massive hospot too

Red have you seen this about Halton BC?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-54607860
(I'm sure they chose to join LCR when Cheshire was ruined reorganised.)

@yeOldeTrout I'd guess Plymouth has higher numbers of students but a greater number will be part time or taking shorter courses. I'm surprised by their numbers of international students though.

yeOldeTrout was that just Plymouth Uni or Plymouth and Marjons? (Plymouth's other university.) Sorry I'm being lazy I should go and have a look. Got to take GS home so I'll have a look later.

@Mrex am I right in thinking that there is movement in the bowels of DEFRA and that shite posts may be straining to enter our data and insight cistern?

@yeOldeTrout I was talking about those with origin in the uk. Foreign students should be quarantining for 14 days if from a higher incidence place, so irrelevant.

SInce week 33 in Germany, the mean infection age has risen from 32 to 39
The number reporting NO symptoms is < 20%; it has not exceeded 35% so far in the epidemic

The hospitalisation rate has risen slightly as a consequence from ~5% to ~7%
and the death rate (CFR) from ~0.35% to ~0.6% (varies a lot, but has been < 1% since week 30)

Again illustrating the importance of protecting the elderly:

Of all deaths to date, 8,836 (85%) were in people aged 70+
but only 13% of all cases were in this age group
and only 5 aged 0-19

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html?nn=13490888

[quote boys3]@Mrex am I right in thinking that there is movement in the bowels of DEFRA and that shite posts may be straining to enter our data and insight cistern? [/quote]
...
@mrex @boys Do we have a date for the sewage study ?
I presume only in certain towns / cities - do you know which ?

The beauty of sewage (!) is that unlike the ONS, it is a fully representative population sample, not biased by those who refuse cooperation

I thought you guys might be interested in this article

"The tyranny of data has put us at the mercy of a new Covid priesthood"

I think the journalist feels threatened by the maths.

It's behind a paywall but sounds more like he thinks the government may be scared of data?

Antonio Gasparrinii@AGasparrini75*

Our analysis of excess mortality during spring #COVID19 period in Italy just published in IJE.
Results confirm a 29% increase in 15Feb-15May, about 15,000 deaths more than official figures.

Full text, data/code, and Shiny app to visualize maps/results
http://www.ag-myresearch.com/2020scortichinii_ije.html

@pussycatinboots

Red have you seen this about Halton BC? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-54607860 (I'm sure they chose to join LCR when Cheshire was ruined reorganised.)

Its kind of weird.

Halton is part of LCR but also still 'Cheshire' in other senses. Cheshire as a single entity no longer exists as an authority. In theory. Apart for policing.

LCR has governance over areas covering employment, skills, transport, regeneration, housing and planning (basically regional development). One of its members is the Merseyside Police and Crime Commissioner.

HOWEVER Halton is policed by Cheshire Constabulary (along with Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Warrington) and I think they vote for the Cheshire Crime and Police Commissioner accordingly.

And whilst LCR has some responsibilties for Public Health, Halton is linked with Warrington for health due to the area being part of Halton and Warrington NHS Trust and has its own CCG.

So Halton is almost 'half in/half out' in practical terms and has to work with both LCR and Warrington and Cheshire Police.

So its MESSY to say the least.

The government have said they wanted the lesser affected parts of LCR in T3 almost as a cushion to neighbouring areas. Except that doesn't really work either and makes little sense.

Joseph Allen @jgallen

If your school is closed and trying to reopen (or if you're open and want to keep it that way),
some resources:

✅ risk reduction strategies
✅ 'How to' for assessing ventilation
✅ Tool to help pick portable air cleaner
✅ 20Q every parent should ask

Harvard School of Public Health
https://schools.forhealth.org/risk-reduction-strategies-for-reopening-schools/

[quote alreadytaken]@Augustbreeze Plymouth is a low incidence level, as is Exeter. But Exeter will draw in more students from higher risk areas. It's not necessarily true of all unis with a wide catchment - Manchester would draw from across the country, including lower risk areas.[/quote]
Manchester has the largest " student village" in Europe and so no wonder it has been so badly hit

Hospital admissions

Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group & StuartMcDonald @ActuaryByDay

Calculate doubling time for admissions is ~ 2 weeks
and R ~1.3, based on recent hospital admissions

They have linear and log graphs for admissions
That handy log graph makes it easier to see September admissions seemed to slow, but October is a straight line, illustrating the increased growth

Little update from France. We have 26,676 new cases today, so almost identical to the UK, and 166 deaths according to the ASS. 621 new hospitalisations and 284 into ICU. That continues an acceleration of cases into ICU, for a total of 2239.

The positivity rate continues to rise, 13,7% today compared to 7,6% at the start of October.

Saint-Etienne, one of the cities under curfew, has a rate of 717 per 100,000 (the worst in France). The département, La Loire, has an overall rate of 545, so there is a suspicion that the curfew may be extended even further out from the city. There is concern that we may see a repeat of Mulhouse, in the east of France, back in March. That was the area that was totally overwhelmed and led to the TGVs being turned into emergency transport and the German Air Force flying patients out.

The Prime Minister has warned that a certain number of départements are going to move into «alerte maximale» tomorrow. Some of those will then be placed under curfew. Until now, with the exception of Ile-de-France, only métropoles have been under curfew. If they start applying it to entire départements that will be a huge change. Though 20 million people are already under curfew.

Marjons is 98% British students but I can't see any breakdown of local v national. It is small though, latest figure I can find is 5,000 students.

Everyone on the edge of their toilet seats... the waste water press release will come from Defra "by end of week"; the number of plants testing or in the pipeline and the results should be published. Interesting to know if Wales will get partially included with Severn Trent or not (shit flows downhill, it has no respect for borders).

Some interesting stats I've seen today:
ONS Social Impacts; people getting more worried (74% worried and 33% high anxiety levels/ 40% with health condition anxious) and a hint of divergence of views for those in lockdown areas. Very high levels of stated compliance (99% masks seeing 87% of others wearing masks, 83% social distancing / 77% in local lockdown areas not statistically significant) but responder bias may apply.
General overview of the series: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19rounduppeopleandsocialimpacts/2020-07-03; This report: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/16october2020.
Full indicators data download is really worth a look with a huge range of data, surprisingly high number of schools with mandatory mask wearing (required in corridors etc on my area but from teacher posts it seems not all areas require it): www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/datasets/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritaindata

Apologies, actually the latest update puts Saint-Etienne at over 800 cases per 100,000.

Hospital Deaths (also just England)

Increasing rapidly, faster than admissions - indicating more middle-aged and especially elderly being infected
The actuaries estimate doubling time ~ 10 days

Regional Admissions

English regional admissions obviously the North dominating,
but the other regions have much higher growth rates from a lower base - the Midlands look to be catching up

.

Surely they will have to shut french schools as the beds run out?

Fingon Has there been any discussion of short local lockdowns ?

And do you know how well t&t are coping ?

"the TGVs being turned into emergency transport and the German Air Force flying patients out"
Probably GM doesn't have similar options !