Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

theSun I didn't expect what is effectively a dictatorship to be very open about Covid figures,
but your description of the situation in Hungary is considerably worse than I feared

@FingonTheValiant so sad to hear your zone colours. No worries re link, be safe over there.

@BigChocFrenzy

theSun I didn't expect what is effectively a dictatorship to be very open about Covid figures, but your description of the situation in Hungary is considerably worse than I feared

On some level I think people there (as a society) deserve it. It's harsh, but having lived through the 90's where we had a chance to do something new and civilized yet as time passed people started voting again for oppression, I can't say anything else. My generation (children of the 70s) was at the forefront of "let's change the political landscape" , but as soon as we saw how it was not going to happen most got desensitized. And this gov is pushing the boundaries a little by little everyday. You know... frog and pot... *

My worry is that I am seeing very similar pattern pieces here which have an opportunity to form a pattern that I have come away from. I do believe though that these pieces will form a different pattern here, but I'm less sure as we move along this year.

*Fun fact: there is still debate if this experiment has actually ever happened, but since we are civilized nobody will try it out now :)

Prof John Edmunds [SAGE] of LSHTM (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine) warned MPs of the death toll without further measures
I suspect warnings won't work until / unless daily deaths get a lot higher, or some hospitals get overwhelmed

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/21/warning-of-tens-of-thousands-of-deaths-in-england-from-covid-19-second-wave

Tiered lockdown system not adequate for preventing high rate of virus infections daily, epidemiologist tells MPs
.......
"“If you look at where we are, there is no way we come out of this wave now without counting our deaths in the tens of thousands,”

Insufficient evidence when the cost would be so high

They really need to stop talking about deaths as much, except to focus on the economic implications of those deaths. People do not go out and spend if they think it may kill them. The message that countries that control the virus do better economically needs to be rammed home.

They also need to focus on the potential long term costs of disability caused by covid.

"They really need to stop talking about deaths as much, except to focus on the economic implications of those deaths. People do not go out and spend if they think it may kill them. The message that countries that control the virus do better economically needs to be rammed home."

I think we need to be slightly careful about this argument. Of course controlling Covid is better for economies overall, but hospitality has been collapsing in Tiers 2 and 3 over the last week not because everyone thinks that going out will kill them (though clearly some do) but because it is now illegal to go to a bar or restaurant with someone from another household.

Do they publish the heat maps today? Or are they from the briefing?

I feel those are really useful.

Thanks for all your info fingon. What age are they wearing masks from and how does that work in lessons?

Local authority positive tests from @RP131

@BigChocFrenzy
@TheSunIsStillShining
I am not certain I'm correct, but I think R doesn't actually tell you the doubling time - you also need to know the average time taken to infect someone else. R of 1.1 could presumably mean cases more than double in a day if it only took an hour on average for the infection to be passed on.

Cathy I don't fully understand the charts; those positivities are quite high??

On the economics, there's an almost exact correlation between employment percentage per region and level of current infection rates (less economically active = higher cases):
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/headlinelabourforcesurveyindicatorsforallregionshi00.
You'd think the reverse, because people being out en masse should be what causes spread. Makes me wonder if there are some few dodgy workplaces (like the factories like Leicester had), that are causing underlying spread.

@BCF thanks for the new thread and new rules sound fine to me.

@FingonTheValiant
Thanks for the French data as a francophile I find this very interesting! Do people trust Macron generally? Looking at things from across the pond I would have thought so.

I'm quite worried about today's positive numbers because the per specimen numbers for the 19th were so unusually high as it was just 2 days ago (recently the lag has been worryingly even over the last 5-6 days as test results have been so slow to come in). That could mean 2 things
a. There's been a huge effort to clear the backlog, so today we will get a high number for positive specimen tests from the 20th and not nearly as many for the 19th. Or
b. The number of positive tests has actually shot up so we'll get many many more positives today attributed to the 19th, which means numbers are heading in the wrong direction significantly.

I worry that it's more likely to be b. But possibly a bit of a thrown in I hope.

@MRex

On the economics, there's an almost exact correlation between employment percentage per region and level of current infection rates (less economically active = higher cases): www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/headlinelabourforcesurveyindicatorsforallregionshi00. You'd think the reverse, because people being out en masse should be what causes spread. Makes me wonder if there are some few dodgy workplaces (like the factories like Leicester had), that are causing underlying spread.

How interesting! Could it be that less economically active areas have more people living in overcrowded housing?

If the virus was under control people could go out to hospitality venues without that being a problem. Hospitality is not the only strand of the economy to worry about either, it's just a vociferous one.

@MRex Not necessarily especially dodgy workplaces, any where the employees are not taking restrictions seriously. But less economically active can be more elderly or higher deprivation.

Well said Ice.

I would hope people aren't accusing others of conspiracy when debating points of data. That is bullying. Debate the point. I didn't follow the thread as I was dealing with self isolation from school infections.

As an aside, I wish we could discuss the actual data around schools; it would have made discussions data driven. Unfortunately it doesn't seem to be as easy to clarify by, as it appears it is in France.

Who wants some data from Israel? cheers
Oh dear its about schools. boos

Anyway, here it is cos I don't really care what the dictate is on any given day. Mainly because its based on utter flaming nonsense. You can't discuss the importance of data properly and ignore schools if they make up a huge part of policy and may possibly be making a huge difference to R rates and cases as a result. Its like making beer but saying we can't have any yeast or any product which contains naturally occuring yeast in the mixture. It simply doesn't work.

Yaneer Bar-Yam @yaneerbaryam
In Israel: A new report from Ministry of Health: 3 children infected 12 people each, and one child infected 24 people

"Children are the engine of the outbreak"
www.themarker.com/coronavirus/.premium-1.9250781

Translated:
translate.google.com/translate?sl=iw&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.themarker.com%2Fcoronavirus%2F.premium-1.9250781

"About 678,000 tests were performed in children, of which 55,000 were positive. This is a positive result rate of 8%, compared to 6% positive in adults (157,000 out of 2.54 million tests)."

"The presence of children in educational settings can accelerate the spread of the disease"

"Children become infected and contagious and may even be super-spreaders, but since most (between half and two-thirds) are asymptomatic carriers, it is difficult to identify a significant proportion of them in time."

Now, I can't read the articles directly, so those tweets are only so helpful - it would be good if these do get an English translation which is open to the public to delve a bit deeper. I do know that Israel was doing some mass testing to try and get a clearer pattern of whats going on.

I find those figures interesting because they appear to be in the same ballpark as Rainhill High School which had 10 symptomatic positive tests to 30 assymptomatic tests when they tested the whole school. It also suggests that children's cases are going undetected more often which is consistent from what we know elsewhere.

If that is the case, and this starts to show up more often in the scraps of data we have, then it starts to become difficult to argue that schools merely reflect the number of cases in the community and that they aren't indeed driving it.

It will be interesting to see where this data heads as we find out more, but it does look like an agressive policy on closing schools really can't be ruled out in areas of high cases. And that politically is going to be very difficult to argue the case for given how the government has nailed its colours to the mast on that one.

In terms of public health, economics, children's well being AND education (if we keep getting multiple closures of school bubbles in some areas anyway) then keeping the schools open regardless, starts to become a much harder thing to sustain and the argument for a stricter circuit breaker type action rears its head again because of how all these factors collide and interact.

Good post IceCreamSummer, RedToothBrush that school information looks interesting and worrying. A week off now isn't much but perhaps it will help to slow things, although with teenage GC I know the older ones will be meeting up as their attitude seems to be, "We are together all week on buses and in schools so what does it matter?"

If people keep complaining about being victimised and bullied - on what has been one of the calmest series of threads around -
I will assume they don't want me to make further threads,

so they will be making their own in future - I'll be leaving you to it

There has been a very unpleasant influx since September of a few people who are hyper-sensitive and take a few requests to stick to the data as bullying

If these threads are such crap, why the fuck don't you make your own?

I don't go and piss all over red's Westministenders threads when they take a turn I don't like, I either skip over a lot of posts, or go away for a while

It has always been fine to post data and articles about schools

On the economics, there's an almost exact correlation between employment percentage per region and level of current infection rates less economically active = higher cases

Or this just returns to the "students", they're much, much less likely to be economically active.