Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

@FingonTheValiant that’s interesting re France, please can you tag me if you find out more about what is happening re schools and France. Struggling to find out anything and very interested to know.

@NeurotrashWarrior

No, because there have been literally a handful of cases out of millions.

Anyhow, at this rate we are going to find out soon enough if herd immunity is an option whether you like it or not.

But it doesn't solve the hospital issue. If the people who ended up in hospital the first time round and survived get it again, it's looking like they can be as badly affected.

It's going to take much longer than a year to get real herd immunity to protect them.

I'm at risk of speculating here but now that the number of people in hospital is what 50% of the April peak, deaths at 300 a day and likely to double every 2 or 3 weeks, daily infections comparable to the march lockdown, then waiting to see what tier 3 does to r may mean the impact on the NHS may well pass the first wave within a few weeks?

MummyPop00

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207333/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence-falling-england-react/

Yes but antibodies are not B & T cells.

I think the recent ONS random survey found that only 33% of people testing positive had symptoms didn’t it? Given that you generally need symptoms to get a test and not everyone with symptoms will get a test that 20% figure seems to be about what you’d expect.

[quote MummyPop00]@NeurotrashWarrior

No, because there have been literally a handful of cases out of millions.

Anyhow, at this rate we are going to find out soon enough if herd immunity is an option whether you like it or not.[/quote]
Yes, it's sad isn't it that generally, with other diseases, community infections have not led to the development of herd immunity? Which was why vaccines were developed in the first place?

So we have a tough winter ahead.

Covid-19: Nearly 100,000 catching virus every day - study www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962

Is there any information on the schools tier system? At what point will there be any action?!

The impact on the NHS in some areas is already worse than it was first time round. One NW hospital which I have info on is in crisis - the emergency theatres have shut because there aren’t staff to sterilise the equipment, people with life changing injuries are stuck in A&E because there are no beds, outpatients has been converted to an emergency medical ward. Last time round the hospital prepared and cleared out the patients. This time round, staff are being told they should be doing 80% of normal stuff, which when you can’t do emergencies is beyond unrealistic. When the London hospitals were at this point, things changed. Morale is rock bottom, staff exhausted and it’s still only October.

The DfE should have a good idea of why attendance rates vary so much, virus-wise. I'm a school data manager, and this is the attendance report we have to submit to the DfE every day. We have special attendance marks for students off school in the various categories.

The big worry here is that it is (mainly) areas of high social deprivation -already educationally disadvantaged- with very low attendance

Kingston Upon Thames is not high social deprivation, although the ludicrous single sex grammar obsession in the borough does mean it attracts kids from much wider than just the borough, but very few of those are deprived either. Do you have the source for the 68% attendance?

from 13:45 to 14:45 today, the European Parliament's ENVI Committee will hold an exchange of views with Sandra Gallina, Director-General of DG SANTE, on the EU negotiations with pharmaceutical companies on COVID-19 vaccines, and discuss the actions proposed in the European Commission's communication of 15 October on preparedness for COVID-19 vaccination strategies and vaccine deployment, including how to increase vaccination capacity, public-awareness campaigns and coordinated efforts to tackle misinformation on vaccines. The exchange will be webstreamed and recorded.

www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2014_2019/plmrep/COMMITTEES/ENVI/OJ/2020/10-28/1216628EN.pdf

live stream

The DfE should have a good idea

I might take issue with the first part of your post!

Swedish news : Malmo and the surrounding are has gone into voluntary lockdown. Gosh.

Swedish news : Malmo and the surrounding are has gone into voluntary lockdown. Gosh.

That'll upset the Covid minimisers. I'm looking at you Andrew Neil.

@NightmareLoon

That’s very interesting.
When you say you have to send this to the DfE is that compelled by law?

As you say no excuses for not understanding absences

What are special attendance marks ?

@Piggywaspushed - schools have different half term dates. Kingston upon Thames are on half term: www.kingston.gov.uk/info/200130/education_schools_and_nurseries/214/term_dates. Officially dates are one week, but checking some schools the dates are generally 2 weeks e.g. www.thekingstonacademy.org/academy-life/term-dates-2, www.tiffinschool.co.uk/life/calendar.html.

Good and reassuring article from the NY Times about why declining antibody levels is not as bad as it sounds.

www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/health/coronavirus-antibodies-studies.html

[quote MummyPop00]@NeurotrashWarrior

No, because there have been literally a handful of cases out of millions.

Anyhow, at this rate we are going to find out soon enough if herd immunity is an option whether you like it or not.[/quote]
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4

The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19

News Feature from Nature

I am a bit surprised that the Imperial research on antibodies has been getting so much press coverage. It has simply re-iterated something that was already demonstrated by multiple studies - COVID IgG antibodies seem to wane with time. However - it does not necessarily mean people completely lose acquired immunity. Separate studies in Asia seem to suggest that individuals who recovered from SARS might be immune to COVID 17 years later (even though any IgG antibodies have been long gone).

An anecdote - my nanny's family (parents + both sets of grandparents) all got COVID earlier this month. The only person who was not infected was in fact my nanny. She had prolonged close contact with all the infected family members and must have been exposed to a pretty high infectious dose / viral load.

Two of her family members ended up in the hospital. Their doctors suggested that my nanny must have been protected from COVID by her previous immunity. She never got tested positive but she was indeed sick for a week in early March. Her symptoms were shortness of breath (no cough) and fever. Taste and smell were both fine.

I got my whole family (including my nanny) tested for antibodies back in June - just out of curiousity. All our tests were negative. If my nanny was indeed protected by pre-existing immunity, it was not provided by IgG antibodies.

That wouldn't affect attendance figures though MRex.

[quote Frazzled2207]@NightmareLoon

That’s very interesting.
When you say you have to send this to the DfE is that compelled by law?

As you say no excuses for not understanding absences

What are special attendance marks ?[/quote]
Good question about the law - I'm not sure. The attendance officer fills in the numbers in each of those categories on a form on the DfE website, every day. This started after our "wider" opening on 1 June.

Here's the DfE guidance about the form, including who has access to the information: www.gov.uk/guidance/how-to-complete-the-educational-setting-status-form#preview

Attendance marks are those such as:
/ or \ - Present am or pm
O - Unathorised Absence
I - Illness
E - Excluded

etc - there are lots

The special attendance codes (which our MIS (school database) is using, others might have other similar codes - these are solely for the benefit of ease in filling out the DfE form):

SII - Self-isolating internal exposure (maps to the statutory mark of X). Use this code if the student was exposed to Covid-19 in your educational setting and is self-isolating as a result

SIE - Self-isolating external exposure (maps to the statutory mark of X). Use this code if the student was exposed to Covid-19 outside of your educational setting and is self-isolating as a result.

Sym - Suspected case of Covid-19 (maps to the statutory mark of X). Use this code if the student is displaying symptoms but has not yet received a test result.

Cov - Confirmed case of Covid-19 (maps to the statutory mark of I). Use this code if the student has received a positive coronavirus (COVID-19) test result.

@NightmareLoon

Thanks for that, very insightful.
I knew the dfe collected some info but was unsure how. Have heard that some schools just don’t do it (possibly time constraints). Hopefully the majority do.

I still don't understand that if all schools have to have a MIS then why is it a manual process to enter this information into another system??? There are a handful of MISes out there the connection module wouldn't take a month to develop. Grrrr....

Private school in Richmond (and most privates in UK as most use the same system): there is a Code X for covid related absence. It is not classified further.

Again: not gathering data because they don't want to know.

And presumably it's PHE that decides who has been exposed to Covid in your educational setting??