Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-latin-america-54634518

Economic indicators analysis; 48% of firms have lower turnover than normal. A brief note - be careful with some indicators VAT as these can be based on number of companies regardless of size. The key food stat is reduced cost to drink wine and increased cost for spirits, you know what to do . Notable that footfall increasing almost everywhere except NW and NE. Shipping is stable, but low for the time of year so firms preparing for a lean year for Christmas? www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/latest#latest-indicators-at-a-glance

Sorry. That layouts awful. A Brazilian participant in Oxford vaccination has died

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/21/women-aged-50-60-at-greatest-risk-of-long-covid-experts-suggest
An interesting article about long Covid. It describes a pre-print study by the Zoe app people at KCL showing that women aged 50-60 are at highest risk of long Covid!

@Keepdistance

Surely they will have to shut french schools as the beds run out?

... What they shut depends on what their public health thinks will have the greatest impact on R and also whether Macron & the general public have set keeping schools ft as a priority

There is some difference about school policy even during lockdowns:

In Ireland's current lockdown, they are keeping schools open, as firm policy
In Germany's local lockdown of that little district in the Alps, schools & nurseries are shut
However, that's a short sharp local lockdown and that's been the policy before for those.

@BigChocFrenzy

Hospital Deaths (also just England)

Increasing rapidly, faster than admissions - indicating more middle-aged and especially elderly being infected
The actuaries estimate doubling time ~ 10 days

Regional Admissions

English regional admissions obviously the North dominating,
but the other regions have much higher growth rates from a lower base - the Midlands look to be catching up

re. hospital deaths - what this anomalous growth suggests to me, possibly, is that as admissions and community spread increase, then so do the numbers of hospital acquired infections; which by definition will be in people who are ill enough to be in hospital.

So deaths might grow faster than admissions if there are measurable numbers of deaths coming from those not originally admitted for Covid (and of course might possibly have died of something else within 28 days of positive test).

Sorry. That layouts awful. A Brazilian participant in Oxford vaccination has died It says the BBC understands she didn't have the vaccine.

@EducatingArti

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/21/women-aged-50-60-at-greatest-risk-of-long-covid-experts-suggest An interesting article about long Covid. It describes a pre-print study by the Zoe app people at KCL showing that women aged 50-60 are at highest risk of long Covid!

... That's a very interesting paper & article

the different behaviour of immune systems is leading to women being far less likely to die than men,
but this paper suggest apparently more likely to get Long Covid

@ancientgran

Sorry. That layouts awful. A Brazilian participant in Oxford vaccination has died It says the BBC understands she didn't have the vaccine.

She was given the placebo?

What makes people comply? www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7318969/
"the importance of believing that taking health precautions will be effective for avoiding COVID-19 and generally prioritizing one’s health... perceiving oneself as vulnerable to COVID-19, the perceived severity of catching COVID-19, and trust in government were of relatively little importance."

No indications yet of school closures. Though whispers leaking out of our Académie (that’s the whole area, two départements, not one school) are that they might be preparing to close the lycées, so final 3 year groups. But it’ll take massive problems before it comes to that. Macron is really proud that France was one of the first countries to get all pupils back in.

We all thought Macron would restrict movement over the holidays, but he’s been accused of infantilising the population during the first wave, and so very specifically said that he would not infantilise us by restricting movement and asked people to be sensible. And recommended rule of 6, but didn’t make it a law. It looks like curfews are all we’re getting.

T&T massively helped out by making teachers and students never be contact cases. So no need to ever trace us or our families. There is no public discussion of T&T here. I literally hear nothing about it.

Fingon really interesting to hear what’s happening in France.

Fingon Do you have any data on positive cases for staff and students ?
Or hospitalisations ?

That would be worrying if hospital-acquired infection is increasing, Patricia

Obviously impossible to stop completely, especially when people are infectious before / without having symptoms,
but there must have been a lot of lessons learned from the 1st wave and extra precautions taken
Again, like t&t, sounds like the sheer number of infections are making some systems less effective

Marsha thanks, I’ve been worried that I don’t have much to add to the thread that’s of interest...

DH has just told me that T&T is taken care of by the ARS - so régional public health agency. And that they did some recruiting for T&T posts. So assumedly it is happening.

Your posts are very interesting, fingon
I really like to hear what's happening in France and in any other countries where pp are living

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/567-greater-manchester-schools-hit-19139861
567 Greater Manchester schools hit with Covid cases since start of term

567 Greater Manchester schools have now had positive Covid cases since the beginning of September.

With half term almost upon us, hundreds more pupils have been told not to attend this week following positive cases among classmates, teachers or both.

Some schools have reported their first cases since reopening after the summer, others have had further cases, with some now sending the same children home for a third time.

Oh no! That’ll teach me. It didn’t say that in the previous article I read (a paper obviously they had an agenda) it said that because of patient confidentiality they didn’t know any details. I couldn’t link that because it just wouldn’t copy as it was on Facebook, so I searched for another article

Think I’ll stop reading the papers

She was given the placebo? Presumably. Very sad she's died but for the rest of us it is good that it wasn't the vaccine. I hope it is safe and we have it soon.

SeekingAnswers3 let's hope the BBC have got it right.

BCF thanks

I have some data from 2nd October, I can do some digging for more recent results.

36% of all clusters are in academic settings. As of 2.10 that was 550 clusters. Of these, 46% were in collèges and lycées (so secondary), 33% at universities, 14% in primary schools (year 2 - year 6) and 7% in maternelles (nursery to year 1). That’s nursery in the school sense, not childcare nurseries.

In termes of how many people are positive per cluster : it’s an average of 5 for maternelle, 6 for primary, 7 for secondary, and 24 for university. Parties heavily linked to the uni numbers, whereas school numbers considered to be from, well, school.

For 10-19 year olds the rate was 125 per 100,000. (251 for 20-29, under 40 for 0-9).

www.bfmtv.com/societe/education/infographies-a-l-universite-en-primaire-au-lycee-ce-que-l-on-sait-des-clusters-en-milieu-scolaire_AD-202010020244.html

Some back of envelope calc using the England NHS Hospital Death data (www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/)

suggests that the % of "admissions" with Covid that were actually diagnosed between 48 hours and 7 days after admission (so possibly admitted for something else) has risen from around 8% a month ago to 16% now - suggesting hospital acquired infection is on the up.

(and sorry I don't mean "death" data, I mean "admissions".)

Bbc reporting that people were either given Oxford vaccine or existing meningitis vaccine on trial. I'm assuming she had later.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-54634518

It could be a death completely unrelated to trial but still would be noted.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-test-and-trace-serco-untrained-tracing-b1204648.html
Coronavirus: Test and trace forced to bring in untrained workers as system is overwhelmed by second wave, leaked email reveals

Exclusive: Staff say they fear for the safety of Covid-positive patients

Leaked emails obtained by The Independent show that as of Wednesday, staff from outsourcing firms Serco and Sitel, who have no clinical training, will be working alongside nurses and clinical staff to help assess and contract trace approximately 20,000 cases each day.

The message said the surge in coronavirus cases had led to “an immediate challenge to the capacity” of test and trace. It comes as the latest daily data shows there were 26,688 infections confirmed in the last 24 hours, a record high with 6,479 patients in hospitals across the UK with 191 deaths reported on Tuesday.

and

The staff will be used to assess patients in the second tier of the test and trace service over the phone. The calls will be to patients who have tested positive and require a clinical assessment as well as contact tracing.

and

An email to staff sent last night warned: “A surge in Covid-19 cases has resulted in an immediate challenge to the capacity of the NHS Test and Trace service.”

It added: “From 21 October changes will be introduced across the worker community to provide the additional capacity to meet this surge in demand. A number of experienced agents from Serco and Sitel will assist with index case tracing from tomorrow, focusing primarily on gathering information required for contact tracing.”