Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
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Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Possibly Oxford and Cambridge?

Neither oxford nor Cambridge have reported spikes, afaik.
Newcastle, Exeter, however...

Central Cambridge has gone up massively in the last few weeks.

Ah OK.

I don't think Oxford numbers have been good either....

Not sure if it's entirely uni related though

Bristol has spikes relating to the 2 universities - they went back in different weeks as well I think.

BBC News - Covid: Oxford University cases triple on previous week
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-54597671

Wasn't there an Oxford(shire?) problem several weeks earlier though?

Just checked. UWE term started 21st September, Bristol term started 5th October

Ah, now I look again the link by age isn't clear enough because it could be general growth in the population happening to hit at the same time; hospitals and schools no, because there weren't outbreaks, but pubs maybe? Ignore me.

@Augustbreeze - Oxford Brookes went back many weeks earlier and had lots of infections. Oxford uni - no idea, except that they started back much later.

@MRex data.london.gov.uk/dataset/further-education-and-higher-education-destinations-ks5-students-borough-and-insti

Has Merton, City of London, Sutton, Harrow and Camden as other likely boroughs that would fit the pattern (large proportion of KS5 students going to "top" universities, as that implies much more living away.)

@Augustbreeze

That was Oxford Bookes, which is a bit out of town. It was before Oxford Uni term had started.

@Augustbreeze
Not good at all, doesn’t necessarily affect the positive case notifications though, “just” the tracing. Hopefully people are still getting their test results through email and text.

I keep reading journalist reports from government scientific advisors talking about how cases are "levelling off" in many areas.

Does anyone else see this from the data we are getting?

@Nellodee
I would say they are in the north east as a region and certain other pockets. Some individual authorities, including Liverpool and Knowsley and many university cities, have gone down (though that is perhaps skewed by proactive tracing by the unis which has now ramped down). If you look at every region of the UK though, other than the NE, the trend is definitely up.

That all said it looks from the data that 19th october is still the specimen date with most positive tests. We’ll know tomorrow if it was overtaken in 26th (Mondays typically have the highest positive specimen test figure of the week). Looking at the charts I think there is a chance it could end up lower Than last week but probably Skewed a bit by half term and possibly other things.

Bath Uni spike, rolling rate 800.4

RP131 has reproduced this chart of positive tests by age for England as a whole which is quite interesting.

East Lothian and Edinburgh are definitely trending down now. There was even talk of going to the new tier 2 next week rather than 3 which is roughly equivalent to the current restrictions. The west of the Central Belt is not looking so good though, and it may bleed through to the east again. West Lothian has more than double the rate per 100,000 as the city.

Macron announced France going under new lockdown

Germany have also announced another lockdown.

Thanks to all who've corrected my rapidly written/read assertions!

@Frazzled2207 thanks for that great answer.

Just a bit of a stray thought here. I’ve read a couple of newspaper articles claiming government health advisors have predicted a lower and longer plateau of deaths this winter. I don’t recall any country having had a plateau of deaths, other than perhaps the US which is a kind of blended average of states.
I feel like an extended plateau is a really unlikely thing to see on our graphs. I’m sorry that’s not a data contribution, more a mathematical hunch, but it just doesn’t seem like something we’ve seen or are really likely to see.

I think Florida had quite a long plateau of deaths where they were around 100 per day for a long time, but like you I don't recall a country seeing that. Unfortunately as it's from "leaked" Sage reports we don't know what they are using to make that estimate.

Latest REACT study is out (interim)

"..which includes tests taken between 16th and 25th October, shows that the prevalence of infection has more than doubled since the last round of testing, with 1.28% infected. This means an estimated 128 people per 10,000 of England’s population has the virus that causes COVID-19, compared to 60 as of 5th October."

"This corresponds to 96,000 new infections each day."

"18-24 continue to have the highest prevalence of infection but the steepest rise was seen in adults aged 55-64, which saw rates triple compared to the previous round."

R estimate 1.6 (infections doubling every 9 days). Higher estimate than ONS, Zoe etc.

"Prevalence was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber (2.7% up from 0.84%), where 1 in 40 were estimated to have the virus."

"Other areas with the highest prevalence were the North West (2.3%), North East (1.2%), West Midlands (1.6%) and East Midlands (1.2%). Clusters of cases in Lancashire, Manchester, Liverpool and West Yorkshire were also evident."

"The lowest prevalence was found in the South East (0.55%), East of England (0.64%), South West (0.72%), and London (0.89%)."

"disproportionate effects in certain groups, including deprived areas, individuals living in large households, and ethnic minorities."

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207534/coronavirus-infections-rising-rapidly-england-react/