Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

I think the official Covid map needs more colours. The red is for 400+ yet there are many areas with rolling rates of 900+

one interesting nugget of info. The pillar 3 (antibody testing) capacity is apparently 120,000 per day. But only 1-4k of this is being used per day.

Pillar 3 and 4 testing capacity is separate to the main testing capacity however which currently stands at about 440k. But only 281k done yesterday. That said, i would exepct demand to be a bit less this week due to half term - hope this means they can speed up a bit.

@Sunshinegirl82

are you using the new dashboard
coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/

Then go to cases, and at the top it says Cases in (United Kingdom) - latter is in blue. You can then change this to for example, Wales, Manchester, North West, London. Then scroll down to see the 7 day graphs which give you an accurate picture of which direction each area is heading in.

I don’t understand anymore 🤣
Like London are we still doing borough by borough, my borough is the second worse in London with over 200 per 100,000 cases now and only 2 hospitals for people with about 20 icu beds In each What warrants tier 3?

@Snugglesandsmiles25
Sadiq Khan seems keen to keep all of London together in terms of tiers.
Greater Manchester was far higher than 200 when it went into tier 3.
But remember in London there are loads of hospitals and they can flex the capacity around - if your local hospital is full you'll just be sent to another hospital in London for example.
I don't think anywhere in London is likely to be tier 3 soon.

plus in london the borough lines are not nhs trust lines.

Hmm I’m unsure in the first wave our hospital was hit quick. Which I know London was worse then but we never even got back to full capacity for example only one hospital take children here.
Every winter we have bed issues but this year will be so much worse as we still only running at 1 children’s ward instead of 2.
I just worry because we need to access our hospital a lot 🙈

@Snugglesandsmiles25

Hmm I’m unsure in the first wave our hospital was hit quick. Which I know London was worse then but we never even got back to full capacity for example only one hospital take children here. Every winter we have bed issues but this year will be so much worse as we still only running at 1 children’s ward instead of 2. I just worry because we need to access our hospital a lot 🙈

Someone upthread gave a link where you could put in the name of your hospital trust and find daily updates on number of patients for that trust with covid; number in intensive care beds, etc. I bookmarked it for my own trust as depending on the outcome of tests I'll need urgent or moderately urgent surgery.

I'll have a look and see if I can find it for you and repost.

Is it me or does the Pillar 4 testing vs capacity make no sense? The capacity seems to vary hugely (which it might if it is 'left over' capacity but the tests processed seem to be much more than the capacity?

Robert Peston was speculating on twitter the the reason deaths are higher than we would expect given current infection levels, may be linked to the location of current infections.

Unlike in March, current cases are more localised in areas with high poverty. There are a number of reasons why this might lead to worse outcomes (links between poverty and obesity being a big one).

I'm sure there was a lot of in depth analysis of levels of infection and deprivation rates in an earlier thread, but it was a while ago.

Details on Germany’s 4 week lockdown starting next week

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germany-to-enter-four-week-lockdown-from-november-chancellor-merkel-confirms-12117056

So notional Test and Trace daily incidence is 25k, but actual community incidence from surveys is a lot higher (53-90k was mentioned last week). Would that help explain the higher rate of deaths?

Not sure if this has been posted before but RP131 twitter has a breakdown by ages by LA.

The ones I have looked at do show a big number in 10-19 year old unsurprisingly.

coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Age/20201022/20201022.html

Whydoyouthinkthatthen "Is it me or does the Pillar 4 testing vs capacity make no sense? The capacity seems to vary hugely (which it might if it is 'left over' capacity but the tests processed seem to be much more than the capacity?"

I can't get my head around this either. The capacity and numbed of tests processed bear no resemblance to each other. Capacity for Pillar 4 have dropped massively today (down to 7000) but yet way more tests have been processed (51,000). Maybe some of the pillar 4 tests are being carried out under another Pillar?

I just dropped in here to ask about capacity vs tests processed, especially in Pillar 1 where capacity increased by about 50k a couple of days ago - is there maybe a lag between capacity becoming available and tests actually being processed? Maybe equipment is there but staff not available to process tests? Capacity looks not far off target of 500k per day by end of the month now but that’s not much use if processing isn’t happening!

Does this help with Pillar 4 question?

That's very interesting ria! As soon as we enter half term in the 4 areas I looked at, the 10-19s plummet. I reckon people won't get kids tested at half term : they'll keep them in until they feel better instead.

I'd say if they don't have the ability to process 500k tests then the capacity isn't 500k. I assume capacity of 500k means they have 500k test kits, ability to provide those tests either at a testing centre or sending them out or however they do it plus ability to process those tests. If any element is below 500k then capacity isn't 500k to me.

I agree with your logic Ancientgran but I harbour a slight mistrust of the Government’s interpretation of ‘capacity’!

RiaRoth interesting link but the ones I looked at showed the biggest numbers by far in the 30 to 39 range.

Can someone give me names of some boroughs that were suspected of having a uni student spike please? I've looked up Richmond upon Thames, Elmbridge and Kingston upon Thames (it has a uni, but still). I've then compared with some other areas such as Brighton, Manchester, Liverpool etc and find a big difference implying a theory, but I'd like more areas to compare please.

Sorry, didn't mean to be cryptic. The numbers have a clear "young person" spike, followed immediately by a 50-59yo spike (a few more in the 40-49 in Elmbridge). That looks like 18-24 having been on holiday / out partying while living at home, or (worse because idiots alert) getting unwell at university and picked up by mum and dad.

Not sure I quite follow but does Nottingham show what you are after?

What is interesting is that nearly every authority I have looked at has no 10-19 year olds at all in mid August! Followed by a spike...

The Independent reports big (temporary?) problems with T&T's software, doesn't sound like figures will be going up st all this week - DHSC denies all:
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-test-and-trace-contact-tracing-delays-sitel-b1342970.html%3famp