Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Well, looking at France, it looks as though we will soon have lots of data on whether closing everything but schools works or not.

Yes @Nellodee and Spain.

I saw the SAGE report graphs showing the plateau and thought it looked odd.

Good article and visuals explaining aerosol transmission: english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html?ssm=TW_CC

@FingonTheValiant
I'm sure you said it before, but can't find it: what is the policy in France re: in class mask wearing?

I am still baffled by why europe thinks that closing everything, but letting kids mix freely will do a world of good. it will have limited effect, granted, but no real solution. I'd be surprised if they would reach the daily 5000 figures in a month from the numbers they have now.

I am fully rooting for them, just don't see how it will happen. Hope they prove me wrong.

Q.

I was looking at testing figures and can't really understand why the pillar 3 (antibody) testing was dropped late june. Did this come up and does anyone remember any answers or should I go search around?

Q2: which countries would you add to the list of having handled covid well: NZ, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Hong kong, Singapore

I was wondering about schools. If we acknowledge that from a gov pov education=childcare (let's not go into how stupid that is, we can see that they do this) then here is a back of an envelope calculation

Appr. there are 1.5m FT working mums. Take away key workers, let's assume we have 1m left.
Average salary is is actually quite low and we are in a pandemic, so let's say gov pays a monthly net 1200 salary to every one of these 1m mums to actually stay home with their kids. Obv. in reality this would have to be way more nuanced and based on a lot of factors, but I was just curious of the final numbers.
[caveat: above xxx household threshold working mums would just have to suck it up. I'd hate it as I'm sure I wouldn't give myself anything in this scenario, but I'd be okay with it]

If we assume that this shitshow will continue well into the next year and say from sept gov would have done this.... the full cost of a program like this would have been around 10.5bn pounds.

They have spent more than this on a non functioning TTR.

What would be the downside to this?

from the 19/20 budget:
"The government is investing record amounts in Britain’s roads, railways, broadband, housing and research – over the next five years the public sector will invest more than half a trillion pounds (£640bn) and by the end of the Parliament net investment will be triple the average over the last forty years in real terms"

We know that this includes H2 and other vanity projects that have gone way beyond what they were budgeted for. I'd risk assuming that from this amount only the 10.5bn could be financed. (yes, I know it's not that easy, but it's late and it's hypothetical anyways...)

Education is our children’s future. Schools were already closed for months with disastrous consequences. We cannnot write off a generation for a disease where 90% of those who die are elderly.

I can put up with any other measure but not closing schools.

Thesunisshining - that doesn’t work - I don’t want to give up my job so that schools can shut! Remember - a job isn’t just money for that month, you can’t always pick up where you left off after a career break, why should parents have to give up a secure job during a pandemic and economic recession? I don’t want women to go twenty years back in career development.

re mask wearing in school:
in the part if germany where my sister teaches, primary dc (up to 10yo) only need to wear masks in bottleneck areas, i.e. in hallways and entrances. secondary school children have to wear face coverings all the time and the dc with exceptions sometimes are behind a screen. teachers have to wear masks if close to pupils but often have a screen around the desk where they can take it off.
in netherlands: no masks for pupils in primary, teachers masks & screens
secondary: masks in bottleneck areas, not in classroom. desks are spaced out. teachers wear masks or are behind a screen..

@Eyewhisker

Education is our children’s future. Schools were already closed for months with disastrous consequences. We cannnot write off a generation for a disease where 90% of those who die are elderly.

I can put up with any other measure but not closing schools.

I agree that education is important.

but if school closure is needed I expect a move to online learning. and I expect schools/government to facilitate good quality online learning.

my secondary dc have been told to clear out their locker and to set up their online classroom in case it's needed.
already children in quarantine or home with a mild cold are taught online together with kids in class.

@TheSunIsStillShining There are lots of mums working four days a week (so technically part time) who earn much more than £1200 per month. I earn £55k per annum for a four day week. It took me 10 years to qualify. I am not giving my career up. I have lots of female colleagues in the same position. Being part time doesn’t necessarily equate to a low salary.

@TheSunIsStillShining for Q2 I would add Vietnam around 1200 total recorded cases, 35 recorded deaths and a 99 day streak with no cases.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@FingonTheValiant
I'm sure you said it before, but can't find it: what is the policy in France re: in class mask wearing?

I am still baffled by why europe thinks that closing everything, but letting kids mix freely will do a world of good. it will have limited effect, granted, but no real solution. I'd be surprised if they would reach the daily 5000 figures in a month from the numbers they have now.

I am fully rooting for them, just don't see how it will happen. Hope they prove me wrong.[/quote]
It's compulsory at all times (in classrooms and playground) for all pupils in secondary schools, and all teachers in all schools. They're announcing reinforced measures for schools tomorrow, and there's talk that masks will be required for everyone from year 2 up (start of primary in France).

Just before the holidays started here Public Health France said that secondary schools were a nest of infections. We'll see if the new measures change anything, but I'm not convinced.

That said, we don't know the new school measures yet. There's speculation that "open" might still mean blended learning for lycée.

some interesting stats this morning in an article about Welsh schools which picks up on attendance disparities. Any debate about schools needs to recognise this issue (and accept that online learning isn't a magic bullet at the same time) , but anyhoo, I wondered whether anyone could come up with an explanation for Kingston Upon Thames!?

*At a local authority level, England has significant variation in pupil attendance, with attendance levels in secondary schools as low as 61% in Knowsley.

Other areas with high infection rates, also saw low levels of secondary school attendance in October, such as Liverpool, 67%, and Rochdale, 70%.

However, there were also a number of areas with lower virus rates that have very low secondary school attendance rates, including Calderdale, 64%, Kingston-upon-Thames, 68%, and Bracknell Forest, 72%.

In contrast, attendance in secondary schools in October was as high as 94% in Kensington and Chelsea, West Berkshire, and Bath and North East Somerset.

Comparing Scotland with Wales, attendance levels in Scotland range from 81% in the Outer Hebrides and 87% in Glasgow to 95% in Aberdeenshire, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands.

In Wales, they vary from 81% in Merthyr Tydfil and Denbighshire, to 93% in Ceredigion and 94% in Monmouthshire*

The big worry here is that it is (mainly) areas of high social deprivation -already educationally disadvantaged- with very low attendance. The government -regardless of what anyone e thinks about mitigation measures/blended learning/exams running- has its head totally buried in the sand over these issues.

@TheSunIsStillShining your proposal assumes that the work those 'mums' do (not dads?) has no value to society beyond earning them 1200 a month.

That's pretty offensive, as well as being completely wrong. Certainly my industry (not keyworkers) would slow down considerably under such a plan, and that would impact a whole range of things, including the handling of the pandemic. Plus we earn a lot more than that.

Plus the organisation I work for, unable to deliver on its commitments, may well fail, leaving a further 5,000 unemployed and both an income tax and significant corporate tax loss for the UK.

Can we get back to the data, though, and have a look at how low attendance is ? This is a secondary school issue particularly (so not childcare) and is a very big problem. Kate Green this morning calls for the government to 'get a grip'

Table here:

schoolsweek.co.uk/coronavirus-attendance-rates-vary-hugely-across-england-finds-epi-report/

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207534/coronavirus-infections-rising-rapidly-england-react/

An interim report led by Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI, which includes tests taken between 16th and 25th October, shows that the prevalence of infection has more than doubled since the last round of testing, with 1.28% infected. This means an estimated 128 people per 10,000 of England’s population has the virus that causes COVID-19, compared to 60 as of 5th October.

This corresponds to 96,000 new infections each day.

So high as the current positives are, we are only picking up c20% of cases....

If feels like the government is fiddling while Rome burns in all sorts of ways. I think this was inevitable given the vanity of Johnson, Cummings, Gove, Williamson, Jenrick et al. I withhold judgement on Sunak and Hancock for the meantime.

. If you look at every region of the UK though, other than the NE, the trend is definitely up.

We are teetering. We are probably the only place where going up a tier meant loosening restrictions!

From the 18th sept we had very strict no mingling restrictions brought in to curb the rising infections.

Bars etc were still open but it actually meant that no one really went out. Many have closed as a result. Everyone was so confused by what the rules actually were that many treated it as a lockdown bar essential shopping.

However the tier 2 meant we could now meet others outside in groups of 6 etc. The rule of one had an impact but Looking at the council published graphs I feel we could go either way.

Residential / family areas (non student) are shooting up in a worrying way, as the council have stated. Gateshead are going up.

Half term may create a short break but I think we will have issues in two weeks again. I'm aware of a lot of local schools having issues the last week of the term. Either Covid related staffing issues or student outbreaks.

(Take away the orange data which is students registered at a non Newcastle address.)

If Imperial are right and we are at 96,000 cases a day then keep that up & bearing in mind a lot have already had it knowingly or unknowingly, we could reach the herd immunity threshold within a year or so & all this tinkering could be rendered academic.

That report is really worrying piggy.

Herd immunity? It lasts 6 months. We can't get herd immunity.

Next winter will be 10x worse.

"So high as the current positives are, we are only picking up c20% of cases...."

What would be interesting is how the stats on ages / areas vary compared to the national system. Is it 20% everywhere higher in certain areas/ ages/ Demographics etc than others