Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

Ah have found out, it's part of this, which I've never heard of before but looks very legit - leading universities and research councils:

www.i-sense.org.uk/news

Plymouth have announced that they expect to go into tier 2 in days if numbers don't come down, they've really rocketed. In September confirmed cases were often single figures and I don't think a day went as high as 20, this month they have had plenty of days over 50 and as high as 79.

The Nottingham tier 3 is now the whole county.

@FeelingBlueAgain

It is more leaked SAGE discussions, probably uses unpublished modelling, I'd guess.

Downing Street is privately working on the assumption that the second wave of coronavirus will be more deadly than the first, with the death toll remaining high throughout the winter.

An internal analysis of the projected course of the second wave is understood to show deaths peaking at a lower level than in the spring but remaining at that level for weeks or even months.

It is understood that the projection – provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) – has led to intense lobbying from Sir Patrick Vallance and other Government advisers for Boris Johnson to take more drastic action.

"It's going to be worse this time, more deaths," said one well-placed source. "That is the projection that has been put in front of the Prime Minister, and he is now being put under a lot of pressure to lock down again."

Thankyou to @cathyandclare and @sirfredfredgeorge (and anyone I haven't read down to) for answering my question.

@SarahMused it’s not exactly the data you’re looking for on age and symptomatic or not, but the most recent NI Public Health Agency report has broken down care home “outbreaks” and whether they were symptomatic or asymptomatic - interestingly more were asymptomatic than symptomatic (but this has not been broken down by staff vs residents, so it’s value is diminished a bit)

www.publichealth.hscni.net/sites/default/files/2020-10/Monthly%20Epidemiological%20Bulletin_week%2042_0.pdf

I don't get the criteria, when it was the watchlist we were on it at 20/100000.
We are now over 100/100000 and our hospital beds being used have shot right up in the last week.
I know we have to save the economy but it seems they are waiting until cases or hospitals and over 65s get over run before they do anything.
Which then it just takes longer to drive cases down.

Germany is discussing a lockdown from next week.

www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/corona-gipfel-kontaktbeschraenkungen-sollen-am-2-november-starten-a-28a70431-4b4e-4dc0-8cf2-4acd260ab7a1

For us (virtually) non-German readers, what would they do about schools? Thanks

Thanks herecomesthsun - so it looks like a worst-case scenario - plan for the worst, hope restrictions achieve the best.

I despair of the media sometimes. Was watching interviews yesterday and today with couple of different people talking about the vaccines in a way that was very easy to understand - how they work, the positives and the negatives, known and unknowns. Really interesting and reassuring.

BBC headlines with "experts say vaccine may not work".

I can't see any details in the article tbh.
but my sister who is a secondary school teacher said they have been advised to be ready to move to online learning from next week.

For us (virtually) non-German readers, what would they do about schools? Thanks

On BBC news at lunchtime, restrictions would not apply to schools. In fact all the countries they reported on are going to try to keep schools open.

Even for older years (14+), @Baaaahhhhh ?

It's going to be worse this time, more deaths

You see, I struggle with this. We are also told that death rates have halved due to better treatment protocols. Now, if they are saying we are going to have xxxx times numbers of people in hospital, I suppose statistically speaking then there would be more deaths, but the hospitalisation rate to infection rate is also lower so far. I can't help feeling they are catastrophising. I hope so.

Yesterday on here the idea was floated that we must have far more infections than is being calculated, even by ONS survey. Because that's the only way to explain the hospitalisation and death rates, iirc.(Although why would the ONS's data be wrong?)

There were ~40k official deaths in the spring & early summer, over half of which occurred in April with >1000 deaths on several days. Say things level off somewhat and we average 300 deaths/day from 1 November to 31 March, that's still 45K total.

@Augustbreeze

Yesterday on here the idea was floated that we must have far more infections than is being calculated, even by ONS survey. Because that's the only way to explain the hospitalisation and death rates, iirc.(Although why would the ONS's data be wrong?)

isn't 53-90k (from ONS figures, probably rising tomorrow) more than enough?

@Baaaahhhhh

It's going to be worse this time, more deaths

You see, I struggle with this. We are also told that death rates have halved due to better treatment protocols. Now, if they are saying we are going to have xxxx times numbers of people in hospital, I suppose statistically speaking then there would be more deaths, but the hospitalisation rate to infection rate is also lower so far. I can't help feeling they are catastrophising. I hope so.

We don't know.

More medical knowledge

but

A large reservoir of people who could get infected

and

A limited number of hospital beds

With winter coming on.

Let's hope flu season, and the weather, are mild.

I definitely wouldn't be surprised if there were a lot more uncounted infections out there. I'm positive and my main symptoms have been dizziness and a very upset stomach. I got tested when I lost taste and smell but if that hadn't have happened I'd have assumed I had a stomach bug. A friend tested positive as part of routine work testing with just a headache, so it makes you wonder!

24701 cases
310 deaths.

the 7-day cases by specimen date graphs, on the new dashboard (bottom of the cases section) come up by area and are really helpful. Show clearly for example that in the NE rates seem to have stabilised.
NW still rising but slower.
WM and London rising very fast.

So the briefings from CMOs usually include survey numbers (take a large sample, test them regularly and extrapolate to the wider UK population.)

This offers another perspective to the figures put together by Testing Disgrace.

RP131 on Twitter's usual graph showing cases by specimen date against a specimen 9 day doubling.

But while north west generally still raising Liverpool that went into tier 3 first seems to be going down quite a bit?

...measures as we know do take some time to work but I do wonder if this could be some early signs tier three restrictions are not completely useless?

@Qasd

But while north west generally still raising Liverpool that went into tier 3 first seems to be going down quite a bit?

...measures as we know do take some time to work but I do wonder if this could be some early signs tier three restrictions are not completely useless?

I have noticed that yes. Although not all parts of Liverpool city region are, Liverpool and Knowsley are coming down quite dramatically. Meanwhile Liverpool mayor was on the news yesterday talking about tier 4 which hopefully it won't come to.

Tier 3 not had much effect at all in Greater Manchester (although the city is coming down) but it's only been a few days. That said we have had some restrictions or other in place since end of July not really sure why anyone expects these to work.

@Frazzled2207

I'm probably being dense but where would I find these graphs? I've clicked into the cases section on the dashboard but can't see graphs by specimen date for regions?