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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

1000 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 18:06

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
81
OP posts:
Newjez · 21/10/2020 04:12

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I really don't think this is the winter second wave.

I think this is just the uni students going back.

I think the winter wave we are yet to look forward to. I really think we need to get our shit together by then, or by Jan things could really start to become unpleasant.

NeurotrashWarrior · 21/10/2020 06:59

Newjez, now I know more about my local area's data, Newcastle, the orange line in that graph below represents those with a Gp address in the area, so doesnt include the new student cases.

Hard to tell which way we will go. The heat map didn't fill me with much confidence yesterday.

We had the restrictions cultrally describes brought in on the 18th sept and it looks like there's an impact, but if Manchester are struggling with those restrictions being in place all summer, yes I'm concerned things could to spiral further, especially with the cold weather. (Torrential rain for a week last week too.)

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
NeurotrashWarrior · 21/10/2020 07:00

Long Covid: Who is more likely to get it? www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54622059

I've found this quite concerning especially regarding the higher numbers of women catching it. A woman with asthma I know has long Covid and is still struggling. Definitely not overweight.

MarshaBradyo · 21/10/2020 07:16

'But do I think right now it is appropriate to insist on those similar hard measures in, for example, the South West of England or Kent, where levels of the disease are very, very much lower than in the North of England - the national firebreak you talked about? No, I don't think that is right.

'I don't think that is consistent with the epidemiological picture that we are seeing.'

Imposing the harshest restrictions needed in areas such as Liverpool and Manchester on low-infection places such as Cornwall and East Anglia would be 'inappropriate', he added.

From that DM link, I thought the title indicated something else for a mo.

MarshaBradyo · 21/10/2020 07:20

I can see how hard it would be GM. For so long. In London we were hit hard in March / April but psychologically seeing lower charts now does help.

UntamedShrew · 21/10/2020 07:47

Please don’t let this government’s incompetence and contempt for its people be seen as anything bigger. We share your fury. I’m in London but have family in Leicester and Manchester, including my mum. I’ve cried too about not being able to sit in her garden, or play with my nephews. I’ve not suffered the lack of contact you all have, but I empathise. I honestly suspect they forgot what restrictions you were all under and I’m outraged.

Culturallyappropriatedname I totally see and understand your anger. But I worry that if it’s directed at people who live elsewhere, if you see us as not having a fucking clue, it dilutes the anger we should all feel to this hopeless lack of leadership, and divides our society even further.

Sorry no data here, but I’m off now to click send on the emails I wrote to MPs in the middle of the night when too angry and sad to sleep. Sending very un-londony hugs to anyone waking up feeling despair.

HoldingTight · 21/10/2020 08:07

Divide and rule is alive and well - just as Cummings and his cabal intended. Good post UntamedShrew. Thank you.

SeekingAnswers3 · 21/10/2020 08:59

@HoldingTight most certainly.

They’ve got us bickering amongst ourselves rather than making them accountable for their many, many failings.

EducatingArti · 21/10/2020 09:05

@BigChocFrenzy

The lockdown in March was necessary for a "novel" coronavirus not just to "flatten the curve"

but to give time for the government to build up mass testing, track & trace, so that life could return to as much normality as possible
with maybe 2-3 week local lockdowns over Autumn & winter

However, the govt wasted that time, gave jobs & contracts to cronies and never developed a proper strategy

So many people are pissed off, poorer, exhausted mentally and have mostly very little trust in this governent's abilities or morals
That goes especially for areas like GM that have been under restrictions for months

People aren't stupid; they know it's all a massive cockup and that they are suffering for little purpose

Exactly this !!
RedToothBrush · 21/10/2020 09:11

Telling us to not get sucked into divide and rule is all well and good when your not the area thats simply desperate and people keep ignoring this because it suits their interests and their wallets.

The problem isnt the 'bickering' as you put it. Its the willingness to hang out parts of the country to rot rather than accepting responsibility to help them. The whole issue centres around how people have rather conveniently 'forgotten' how long restrictions have been in place in parts of the country and how people have sucked it up and complied far more than has been asked for elsewhere. And yet they are still tarnished with this crap about being selfish for not just following the restrictions. Like how the fuck does that work?

Do you really think its the fault of people in Manchester for 'bickering' as you put it - to try to draw attention to their problems. Or is it down to willful ignorance and lack of caring so long as we dont have restrictions and pay to support Manchester here from people everywhere else in the country?

Really go think about what you've said and who is enabling the government to shit on the North, because yes it does require the rest of the country to be willing to turn a blind eye for this 'bickering' to be occuring.

'Bickering' ffs. Thats just another word to try and silence people about the problem. I'm sick of it.

IloveJKRowling · 21/10/2020 09:20

Yes BigChoc's analysis is spot on.

They've wasted so much money too with their crony contracts - millions and millions wasted to no good effect that could have been put into local public health, building really good test and trace, and into schools.

Instead they've chosen to enrich their mates while everything else goes to shit.

It's hard not to conclude they are deliberately running the country into the ground. Also agree with PP - we must direct our anger at those responsible not at each other. They've used this strategy too successfully for too long.

EducatingArti · 21/10/2020 09:22

@UntamedShrew

Please don’t let this government’s incompetence and contempt for its people be seen as anything bigger. We share your fury. I’m in London but have family in Leicester and Manchester, including my mum. I’ve cried too about not being able to sit in her garden, or play with my nephews. I’ve not suffered the lack of contact you all have, but I empathise. I honestly suspect they forgot what restrictions you were all under and I’m outraged.

Culturallyappropriatedname I totally see and understand your anger. But I worry that if it’s directed at people who live elsewhere, if you see us as not having a fucking clue, it dilutes the anger we should all feel to this hopeless lack of leadership, and divides our society even further.

Sorry no data here, but I’m off now to click send on the emails I wrote to MPs in the middle of the night when too angry and sad to sleep. Sending very un-londony hugs to anyone waking up feeling despair.

Thank you so much for this Untamedshrew. I guess things have got quite heated here even on a data thread I'm finding it hard because I subconsciously was hoping that someone in government would eventually do something sensible and step in and make some good decisions but I really don't think this is going to happen. It is like watching a car crash in slow motion but not being able to do anything about it. Sorry - as you were. Back to the data.
IloveJKRowling · 21/10/2020 09:25

Although I do agree with Red we should call out people who criticise Manchester etc. Criticise the government.

Why isn't test and trace working sufficiently well that rates have gone down in those areas under restrictions since July? Why haven't they pumped money into local public health in those areas enough to help solve the problem? Why have schools gone back without extra staff and extra space? If anywhere needs to follow the scientific consensus about the extra measures needed for schools to reopen its the NE and NW.

Why aren't we angry that they can't even get numbers down in an area under restrictions? But no, bung another 250m contract to Serco so they can fail to solve the problem all over again in a newly incompetent way.

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2020 09:25

Interesting article today from the ft on tone deafness in Westminster who are ignoring information from outside their own direct channels.

www.ft.com/content/05bcdeed-ce2d-4009-a3bc-cf9bb71c43d5
Will coronavirus break the UK?
Covid-19 has already driven a greater wedge between the four nations, testing the boundaries of power. But could it push them even further apart?

It was a planeload of tourists returning from Greece that perhaps did most to expose the strain Covid-19 has put on the UK and the uneasy balance of power between its four nations. Sixteen of those flying into Cardiff airport on August 25 from Zante tested positive for coronavirus, forcing all 193 passengers to self-isolate.

For the Welsh government in Cardiff, the conclusion was clear-cut: Zante was a coronavirus hotspot and urgently needed to be added to the list of destinations requiring quarantine.

Vaughan Gething, the Welsh health minister, contacted UK government officials in London. Like Scotland, which had already imposed a quarantine on Greece, Wales had the right to impose its own public health measures but wanted to maintain a united front. This view was shared by Mark Drakeford, Wales’s first minister, who admitted to being “surprised” that London had left Wales the power to diverge on this. Hehad assumed the government would act under border security law rather than public health legislation.

“My view was that unless there was a very good reason why we feel we should depart from what the UK government was doing, we should stick with the decisions that they made,” says Mr Gething.

But what followed tested that theory to destruction. Delays, unanswered requests to central government and finally an incident that seemed to sum up the fraying edges of the four nations of the UK.

The crunch point for Mr Gething came on September 3. The British government did not see the need to quarantine travel from the whole of Greece and was still resisting the idea of quarantining individual regions. Before taking any decision, Mr Gething sent a letter with his arguments and agreed to wait for a meeting with the transport secretary that was arranged for 6pm that evening — but at 5pm the UK government announced it was keeping Greece off the quarantine list for England anyway. “We didn’t get a response to our letter,” Mr Gething recalls. “And then the UK made its decision an hour before we were due to meet.”

Enraged, surprised and baffled, Wales then acted unilaterally, adding Zante to its own quarantine list the next day. The following week the UK government followed suit for England

The article is a long read and this is just part of it...

It just highlights the complete inability and lack of willingness to work with people outside Westminster and this utter arrogance in not listening to anyone else.

Its appalling.

MarshaBradyo · 21/10/2020 09:27

Listening to R4 Nandy and Jenrick I wasn’t sure if £60m was on the table still - differing accounts

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2020 09:29

@IloveJKRowling

Although I do agree with Red we should call out people who criticise Manchester etc. Criticise the government.

Why isn't test and trace working sufficiently well that rates have gone down in those areas under restrictions since July? Why haven't they pumped money into local public health in those areas enough to help solve the problem? Why have schools gone back without extra staff and extra space? If anywhere needs to follow the scientific consensus about the extra measures needed for schools to reopen its the NE and NW.

Why aren't we angry that they can't even get numbers down in an area under restrictions? But no, bung another 250m contract to Serco so they can fail to solve the problem all over again in a newly incompetent way.

This.

Saying that people in the North are 'bickering' misses the problems that are trying to be highlighted and is part of the 'divide and rule' problem.

These are the questions to be asked.

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2020 09:40

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-54627352
Covid-19: Gyms can reopen in Liverpool City Region

IloveJKRowling · 21/10/2020 09:44

Very damning article from Monbiot in the Guardian about the myriad failures of throwing money at private companies

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/government-covid-contracts-britain-nhs-corporate-executives-test-and-trace

CulturallyAppropriatedName · 21/10/2020 09:51

@UntamedShrew

Please don’t let this government’s incompetence and contempt for its people be seen as anything bigger. We share your fury. I’m in London but have family in Leicester and Manchester, including my mum. I’ve cried too about not being able to sit in her garden, or play with my nephews. I’ve not suffered the lack of contact you all have, but I empathise. I honestly suspect they forgot what restrictions you were all under and I’m outraged.

Culturallyappropriatedname I totally see and understand your anger. But I worry that if it’s directed at people who live elsewhere, if you see us as not having a fucking clue, it dilutes the anger we should all feel to this hopeless lack of leadership, and divides our society even further.

Sorry no data here, but I’m off now to click send on the emails I wrote to MPs in the middle of the night when too angry and sad to sleep. Sending very un-londony hugs to anyone waking up feeling despair.

Fair enough - but I only get irritated by the people saying, effectively, that we are all out partying and enjoying life and mixing and refusing to wear masks, or the ignorant Northerners rhetoric. I am not angry with the rest of the country - bit jealous perhaps!. It would be nice if the government acknowledged the sacrifices we in the North have made, for months, rather than screw us over for political point scoring.
ancientgran · 21/10/2020 09:57

I am so lucky, live in the south west which has had low levels of infection (who knows when that will change) and I have a state and private pension so my finances haven't really changed. I feel for people who have lost their jobs, people on short time, businesses being ruined and I am so aware of how much this is impacting on the north.

What we need going forward is to be united, don't let this govt set one area against another, don't let them set one group against another. Brexit caused enough divisions and now this is just making it worse and it will be the "ordinary" people who will suffer. The rich tories in Westminster will be sitting pretty because they look after each other.

Some areas have had a much harder time with lockdowns, each generation has its challenges but our only hope is to stick together.

Foobydoo · 21/10/2020 10:03

@RedToothBrush

SAGE don't think these restrictions will fix the problem. Thats the scientists take so arguing it will solve the issue is frustrating.

After this long under restrictions the problem has become the breakdown in trust and fatigue in the restrictions. Thats what makes them ineffective. And they get increasing ineffective over time.

Putting in even more restrictive ones, won't necessarily fix the issue either. Precisely because of the increasingly ineffective stuff.

From the word go it was said that we had 'one shot' with a lockdown.

And a lot of this was to do with behavioural science. This isn't just about people 'being selfish'. Its about the fact they NEED other humans and they NEED to go to work. And a lack of trust and resentment has built up.

This isn't reversable and ever tighter restrictions don't break the circle of economic hardship / resentment / increasing lack of trust.

If you've done nothing but work and not 'lived' for months - especially if you have a pretty crappy job you dislike and then you go home to a family situation which is stressful and you can't escape that, it will take a toll.

Psychologically knowing that you can't just see your friends and you have no idea when it will end is hard. I know plenty of people who its breaking.

And then you come on here and see people complaining about being in Tier 1 and rule of 6 for christmas and you think 'wow they are on another planet to half the country'.

If you are a business you may have invested money to be covid safe only for restrictions to hit what little business you might have had left. And you can't plan for the future. You've just got to work out how to pay the bills.

Honestly, its awful.

And fascinating to see the opinions of people who have no clue whatsoever what its like in Manchester and how its affecting people on the ground, and have the nerve to just shout 'just follow the rules' rather arrogantly and ignorantly.

As I say. Its outright offensive tbh.

I second everything you say here. This is the bigger picture that many are not seeing.
RedToothBrush · 21/10/2020 10:09

Some areas have had a much harder time with lockdowns, each generation has its challenges but our only hope is to stick together

I think the point here is that sticking together includes acknowledgement of northern sacrifices and to put money where your mouth is on all this 'sticking together' rhetoric.

Actions are needed not words to demonstrate the point that the north is not the sacrifice to the government's incompetence.

As far as anyone in long term local restrictions is concerned, there is a lot of hot air about sticking together and not a lot else behind it.

OrangeLeavesYellowLeaves · 21/10/2020 10:24

The Zante story does seem to show the lack of responsiveness that to me has been the hallmark of the UK official response since February.

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