Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

You know what stuff it. I don't give a fuck what other people want the thread to be.

If they don't understand what data is and what its limitations are screw it.

I'm going to post and piss everyone off if thats what it takes to ram the point home.

@RedToothBrush

The data is meaningless WITHOUT context though

Do people not understand how data works??

I thought data geeks should know this better than anyone!!!

Clearly I was wrong. But this is part of the problem and why we end up in messes like this.

.... It is about the balance, red How far do we go into analysis and what % of threads remains data

My inbox is filling up again with those who want more data, not just speculation, to be blunt

I know we can't satisfy everyone, but we need the balance

I don't give one at this point.

I'm going rogue.

There is economic data and impact on younger groups research for example.

It is not completely devoid?

We should all post what we think important, red but there will also be a lot of data posts and graphs about deaths & hospitalisations
in a "daily numbers" series

@BigChocFrenzy

We should all post what we think important, red but there will also be a lot of data posts and graphs about deaths & hospitalisations in a "daily numbers" series

Hmm cos I haven't done that. And I didn't spend hours doing that the other day.

But nope, no one wants context to what those hospitalisations MEAN or how the data is not necessarily what it professes to be.

Give me strength.

@MarshaBradyo

There is economic data and impact on younger groups research for example.

It is not completely devoid?

... Economic data tends to be much more in the past than deaths etc

I've posted links on historical studies of recessions, including effects on young workers and children

The ONS roundup (link in UK part of OP) contains a painfully brief view:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

and under "miscell" in the OP, we have the mobility and footfall info

However, current data is really inadequate

red I have just tried to answer your earlier post about what you see about the concentration on deaths & hospitalisations

I have never criticised what you post, but I post nearly always about the daily numbers

There is room for both

@BigChocFrenzy

red I have just tried to answer your earlier post about what you see about the concentration on deaths & hospitalisations

I have never criticised what you post, but I post nearly always about the daily numbers

There is room for both

I’d like both for sure

Sorry but if people are looking to the data to give them a simplist narrative of 'that area is bad' quick get the restrictions in NOW. Which some are, and you know they are thats hugely problematic.

The numbers aren't everything if we don't understand how good and depolitised those numbers are.

Unfortunately its pretty obvious that the numbers are being politicised and manipulated - hell look at the way Jonathan Van Tam was asked to look at Manchester yesterday!!!

This thread can not continue to bury its head in the sand over that going forward. Whether people like it or not!

This is a data thread, it was set up to discuss and keep to the data. There are many many other threads to discuss politics or setting the world to rights. None of us have much influence on that until the next election unless you are proposing rioting.

The sense of desperation doesnt only belong in Manchester, it exists everywhere that people are losing their livelihood and that occurs even in tier 1. In my community those with money are supporting local businesses where they can - shopping local, donating money or food to the local animal rescue centres and to other charities, buying takeaways from the local restaurants. There are still many people not covered by that and relying on savings or benefit payments. There is a lot less socialising going on indoors - however unhappy that makes people they have largely stuck to it because they dont want to see even more local businesses forced to close.

I have no way of knowing what is going on in Manchester or Liverpool that makes it so very different. The restrictions are working here, they have worked in other places. If they dont work in Manchester than maybe you need the sort of lockdowns now taking place in Wales. But you also need the parts of the country that can stay open to do so or there will be no money for anyone.

You can do what you like, red, but your actions here are counterproductive.

I’d like both for sure
plus 1

@alreadytaken

This is a data thread, it was set up to discuss and keep to the data. There are many many other threads to discuss politics or setting the world to rights. None of us have much influence on that until the next election unless you are proposing rioting.

The sense of desperation doesnt only belong in Manchester, it exists everywhere that people are losing their livelihood and that occurs even in tier 1. In my community those with money are supporting local businesses where they can - shopping local, donating money or food to the local animal rescue centres and to other charities, buying takeaways from the local restaurants. There are still many people not covered by that and relying on savings or benefit payments. There is a lot less socialising going on indoors - however unhappy that makes people they have largely stuck to it because they dont want to see even more local businesses forced to close.

I have no way of knowing what is going on in Manchester or Liverpool that makes it so very different. The restrictions are working here, they have worked in other places. If they dont work in Manchester than maybe you need the sort of lockdowns now taking place in Wales. But you also need the parts of the country that can stay open to do so or there will be no money for anyone.

You can do what you like, red, but your actions here are counterproductive.

+1

Noone is asking you to bury your head in the sand or cut posts

I gave an answer to your post about concentration on daily numbers, which seems to have irritated you a lot,
we all post about what we want; you do longterm, politics etc, no problem with that

Personally, I'll continue to post about daily & weekly numbers, because that most interests me
and because the state of chaos until at least the 2024 GE just says to me that the future is fucked with no power to stop it

We can all skip reading the bits we find too geeky / depressing / boring

I think a bit of kindness wouldn't go amiss. Red is clearly struggling with what is a happening in her community in Manchester and that is entirely understandable, many are like me are not having the same level of controls as she is. Numbers are important but people are more important.

I do think some of the replies on here are getting pretty close to bullying. No one owns a thread, no one is in a position to dictate to other members, if you think people are being inappropriate then report it but I can't see why people can't talk about data and the very real effects on people and communities.

Those of us in tier 1 areas should consider ourselves very fortunate.

I've posted on the studies thread a genome tracking study that showed transmission for an (American) university outbreak into a local care home. So much for the idea that you can in some way separate off the vulnerable.

On a positive note I was really pleased to see some positive reporting on care homes this week. One report was a home in Yorkshire I think, where the residents have gone viral on TikTok and another today from Yelverton with residents doing a video of advice for younger people. So refreshing to get away from the workhouse image of care homes.

We can all skip reading the bits we find too geeky / depressing / boring Just like people who just want the data bits can skip anything else. Works both ways.

@ancientgran

I think a bit of kindness wouldn't go amiss. Red is clearly struggling with what is a happening in her community in Manchester and that is entirely understandable, many are like me are not having the same level of controls as she is. Numbers are important but people are more important.

I do think some of the replies on here are getting pretty close to bullying. No one owns a thread, no one is in a position to dictate to other members, if you think people are being inappropriate then report it but I can't see why people can't talk about data and the very real effects on people and communities.

Those of us in tier 1 areas should consider ourselves very fortunate.

... What bullying ? Some of us said in response to red that we'll continue to look at the daily & weekly numbers too, but noone's said stop the analysis on the NW, or the politics etc

Noone should feel they can't vent sometimes about what is happening to their area, or to their family

We can all skip over posts and go to the bits that interest us
These threads move so quickly anyway, plenty to read

Richard@RP131 UK has charts showing the different doubling rates in deaths in England and the regions,

Doubling rate in England is 14 days, with NW at 9 days in contrast to SW which has 14 days

Covid persisting in the gut may be behing the Kawasaki like illness in children and behind long covid. Perhaps sufferers should try probiotics or prebiotic, although it's not easy to change gut bacteria. www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/10/super-antigen-tied-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-children-long-covid/

I like the calm analysis of data on this thread.

It is an oasis away from the FFS-type exasperated hysteria of other threads. The heated debate has a place, I just (selfishly) wish it wasn't here. My anxiety levels cannot cope so I seek threads that steer away from it. I like this thread for its calm presentation and analysis of facts and data.

Frankly, if I wanted more than brief political comment on data, I'd look elsewhere (likewise school/education debate). I deliberately don't want that debate, which is why I'm here.

There needs to be a COVID-19 Political Debate thread.

Anyway. Here's my data for the post. University of Nottingham showing a proportional increase in staff cases.

"Manchester has a centre for Genomic Medicine"

Of particular interest would be investigations into any genetic susceptibility and hence maybe tailoring treatments or approaches
We already know some health conditions are risk factors, but deeper studies would provide more info

Virologists have been saying that children are less susceptible because the Coronaviruese enter a cell via the cell's ACE2 receptor and ACE2 expression is very low in children

I have read that this ACE2 expression is higher for men, pregnant women, smokers, those with high blood pressure, T2 diabetics etc.

That indicates different meds could be more successful for different groups
What else, apart from ACE2, could be affecting susceptibility and progression of the illness

@FATEdestiny

I like the calm analysis of data on this thread.

It is an oasis away from the FFS-type exasperated hysteria of other threads. The heated debate has a place, I just (selfishly) wish it wasn't here. My anxiety levels cannot cope so I seek threads that steer away from it. I like this thread for its calm presentation and analysis of facts and data.

Frankly, if I wanted more than brief political comment on data, I'd look elsewhere (likewise school/education debate). I deliberately don't want that debate, which is why I'm here.

There needs to be a COVID-19 Political Debate thread.

Anyway. Here's my data for the post. University of Nottingham showing a proportional increase in staff cases.

Perfectly put @FATEdestiny