Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

RedToothBrush, sorry I assumed it was clear I want to support the north and any people who are struggling. I thought it was pretty clear that I was acknowledging northern sacrifices.

To be honest if that is your attitude maybe I won't bother again.

Actions are needed not words to demonstrate the point that the north is not the sacrifice to the government's incompetence.

How can we help? What do you need from us? (I live in a Midlands town that seem to be being ignored.)

I'm really saddened by the turn this thread has taken. It was an oasis of sanity and calm in a crazy world. I feel like fucking off and not coming back at the moment tbh.

And the problem is people aren't sticking together. They're just not.

I share Red's frustrations. We're in an area that's now over 100 per 100k of the population. My DD1 has been brilliant all year, but now schools are back 'as normal' and all her friends are having sleepovers and doing loads of clubs (to the point I almost gave in and let her until DH said a firm 'no') and she's fed up, feels excluded and is jealous and is now complaining EVERY DAY (despite the fact coronavirus is ramping up) that we - her parents - are 'paranoid' about coronavirus. She just want things to be normal and she sees her friends lives back to normal.

The extra restrictions were brought in to Manchester when rates there were significantly LESS than they are here now. And yet, many people (not all) are pretty much acting as they were in February here (it's not surprising our rates are going up so fast). We're still in Tier 1.

Article showing rates in Greater Manchester in August onwards
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/how-greater-manchesters-coronavirus-infection-19094007

How is that fair?

People in Tier 1 do need to be changing their behaviour now. Tier 1 levels have levels far above what caused local restrictions in the summer. We're heading into winter when the NHS is always under strain anyway. Schools are back with no additional measures. Clubs back. People heading indoors. Shielding discontinued. It makes no sense.

Does anyone actually know if they are trying to improve the trace system and if so how? This seems to be the key to getting things under control in the longer term and everyone acknowledges it’s not working properly. All I hear from the govt is how the test capacity is increasing and how many tests they’re doing, which is all well and good, but they’ve known about the tracing problems for weeks and weeks so you’d think improvements should be targeted to make a real difference in how effective it is by now after this time. I think this is the thing they really need to show is working better. And where is Dido Harding? She was out at the briefings when it was first being set up but seems to have gone very quiet. I, for one, would like to see her at a briefing explaining how they are working to improve things. And if they aren’t working to improve things why on Earth are we still using them to do the job.

@ancientgran

RedToothBrush, sorry I assumed it was clear I want to support the north and any people who are struggling. I thought it was pretty clear that I was acknowledging northern sacrifices.

To be honest if that is your attitude maybe I won't bother again.

Sorry, I'm frustrated. There are people who mean well, but still don't get the point about there being a massive communication problem with Westminster and this feeling of complete abandonment up here that needs action not platitudes. Problems need to be acknowledged by everyone outside the North and thats just not happening. The strength of feeling is reflective of that and just how much there is this sense of the north must 'try harder' rather than looking at whats happening and finding where its actually all going wrong and actually offering solutions and help.

Please understand the desparation that is very real up here.

I've been thinking about what I can do to hold the government to account and direct my frustration to the right place.

Personally, I'm going to be writing to my MP and asking why our area is Tier 1 with rates far higher than caused Manchester restrictions in August. I may copy my email to the local paper.

Red what do think will happen, is it your impression that a higher amount (than the £22m) will be decided upon?

It must be so tough to be in the midst of it.

@HoldingTight

Actions are needed not words to demonstrate the point that the north is not the sacrifice to the government's incompetence.

How can we help? What do you need from us? (I live in a Midlands town that seem to be being ignored.)

I'm really saddened by the turn this thread has taken. It was an oasis of sanity and calm in a crazy world. I feel like fucking off and not coming back at the moment tbh.

I know far too many people who want to fuck off by jumping off cliffs right now.

I think it's always difficult to split data from emotion as every bit of data has an actual effect on real life. I then worry when data is devoid of emotion, the daily deaths is a good example of that, if it's 50 deaths today we would be pleased. Because we are seeing the deaths as data (drop from 200+ yesterday) but that's 50 families struggling with bereavement, the reality of this data.

RedToothBrush I don't know what I can do, I do annoy my Tory MP by sending him e mails with my views and to be fair he does reply and I think he gets it but he is new, 2019 intake, so I don't suppose he has much influence.

I've also done a monthly donation to a children's charity that is hopefully doing things to help, I'm donating 25% of my private pension and have worked out I can do it for a year and then I'll have to review.

I'm not trying to say "look at me and what I'm doing" I just want you to know it isn't always just words but I honestly don't know what else I can do other than to keep telling family/people I know to remember this in 2024 and make sure they vote wisely.

If you, or anyone else, can give us some guidance on what we can do I would be grateful.

There are on line pettions, can't remember what it is called. Is it worth starting something like that or is there one already that we could sign.

I honestly feel helpless but am up for helping but please don't jump off cliffs.

@IloveJKRowling

I've been thinking about what I can do to hold the government to account and direct my frustration to the right place.

Personally, I'm going to be writing to my MP and asking why our area is Tier 1 with rates far higher than caused Manchester restrictions in August. I may copy my email to the local paper.

Copy your email to me if you like, I am thinking of writing to my MP again and that sounds like a good angle

Seriously though. Everyone on this thread is obsessed by the data on covid and its health effects.

Thats fair enough, but its also not enough. At this point solely looking at that isn't enough. We've missed the opportunity to take an approach led by that alone. That ship has sailed. I think theres a few too many people who need to wake up to that.

We need to be monitoring other factors more closely too relating to the bigger picture about what is going on and the impact its having.

Its no longer a question about where restrictions are needed and how well they are working. There is a real black and white thing going on with many posters who are particularly keen on data which isn't helpful. Its becoming blinkered slightly to the reality of what is happening on the ground and thats the fundamental flaw of data.

Data can only tell you what is recorded. But absence of evidence is a really important thing that data analysist should be really keen on and really focused on as much as the data they have.

The criticism of algorithyms is how they fail to recognise problems on a smaller level and only focus on the broadest sense of the problem. They don't look down at lower level stuff. And they don't explore where the cracks in data are and what that reveals.

I do think that there is a real danger of this thread losing sight of where this crisis is now headed and what that means. The behavioural science is now MASSIVELY at play and I don't think there is a huge amount of thinking about how thats affecting things because the data sets are almost too dry and one dimensional. And the economics are really starting to bite and I do feel like there is too little focus on that.

There is a lack of thinking about one set of data and how another set of data sits with it in terms of causation and correlation.

Just looking at daily numbers going up and where with absoluetely no context about whats going on in those areas isn't helpful.

Just THINK.

I'm fine and closeted and insulated from all this. But thats not reflective of what is happening the second I open my door or interact with anyone in person or in my local community. The level of desparation is real and needs some way or sense of being measured as its as important at this point as what covid does to your body.

Some data about schools

• out of 8.3 million school pupils, 400,000 lost time in class last week.

• 50,000 children with confirmed or suspected covid

• 60 schools closed completely last week, with 12,000 pupils off.

This was a 50% increase from the week before.

• According to this article, attendance went down to 86% last week.

www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-400-000-children-in-england-off-school-in-one-week/ar-BB1adFeU?ocid=msedgntp

Seriously though. Everyone on this thread is obsessed by the data on covid and its health effects

Entirely agree, so not everyone.

But yes other metrics can’t be overlooked. Sage recognised this with report on young people, thankfully.
Then economic reality with people losing jobs, livelihoods and homes.

Even if this thread gets skewed the government will be viewing the impact of all areas. They don’t care what we argue about. They are not trying to get us to disagree, it’s neither here nor there.

It’s scarce resources in a long term crisis and it’s always going to be a tough balance.

And yes behavioural science is part of it. U.K. is good at this, we have good thinking on it from well regarded people. It was said people would get fatigued, and they are. It’s hard to see a way round it though.

This is where the worlds of quantitative and qualitative data collide. I value the ‘anecdata’ enormously. Thank you to those who widen the debate. For (not the first time) I hope someone in government with real power is reading this thread.

It’s scarce resources in a long term crisis and it’s always going to be a tough balance.

It's not scarce resources when they're paying their chums at a hefty profit, though is it?

12bn on test and trace for bugger all of practical use.

(and I haven't forgotten the magic money tree they found for the deal with the DUP)

I think it should be illegal to make a profit at all (or certainly above a certain very low %) from any contract with the government during the pandemic. Will be adding this to my MP's letter.

Also, MPs should have a pay freeze or pay cut (ideally the latter - performance related pay).

And I think the vast sums being funnelled into the pockets of chums has a huge impact on behaviour.

It's 'us' and 'them'. (see also Dominic Cummings, Stanley Johnson, children at Eton with their private test and trace etc etc)

I think it should be illegal to make a profit at all (or certainly above a certain very low %) from any contract with the government during the pandemic

It's very, very difficult to make money from government contracts, especially NHS ones. Many private companies "no bid" due to impossibly low margins.

MPs should have a pay freeze. One of the better recent decisions by Bojo, recommendation from the pay board has been rejected, and MP's will not get the salary uplift.

@RedToothBrush

We need to be monitoring other factors more closely too relating to the bigger picture about what is going on and the impact its having
This^
Data is necessary to make decisions, however, behind every stat be it cases hospitalisation or deaths is a real person. These restrictions & stats like you say, do not show the impact to people living under them nor the effect on their families from them.

Great respect to you Red and others on this thread who see further into this than data.

Data leads. But context and ommision of data are also crucial to understanding what data actually means.

"I do think that there is a real danger of this thread losing sight of where this crisis is now headed and what that means."

red That has always been an issue with threads entitled "Daily numbers, graphs, analysis"

A lot of people just lurk to see the daily numbers & trends, mostly wrt health & death, with brief explanations;
some are data geeks;
others like you want want to delve into analysing the longer term political, social and economic implications for the country

I hope we can continue to satisfy all of these wishes, but we've raised the question before of splitting the threads:

keeping this "daily numbers" series for the short term and brief analyses
and
another set - which would be like a non-Brexit version of your Westministenders - that has much less data, as it's not available, but analyses the medium and longterm in a far wider context

The data is meaningless WITHOUT context though

Do people not understand how data works??

I thought data geeks should know this better than anyone!!!

Clearly I was wrong. But this is part of the problem and why we end up in messes like this.

In the shorter term numbers, we also take data from abroad
e.g. Looking at the USA

btw, I wonder if there will suddenly be a huge jump in numbers there if Biden wins & takes office in January,
or whether the CDC have managed to hold odd Trump's gang and keep the numbers honest and representative

CDC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity
USA 26 January 26 -3 October 3

Almost 300k excess deaths
US population 330 million

Age group 75 - 84 had about 95,000 deaths, which is ~or 21.5% above normal.

The biggest relative increase was in age group 25 - 44, with 26.5%, was in people aged 25 to 44.
Also large increases among some ethnic minorities.

Deaths among under-25s dropped slightly.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

"As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported in the United States;

however, this might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality.
.....
Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020,
with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19.

The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons."

Also see 13 (!) CDC excess death dashboards with varying parameters:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm