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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

1000 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 18:06

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
81
CulturallyAppropriatedName · 21/10/2020 13:27

"the restrictions are working here; they have worked in other places"

Yes because no one has told you that, but for ten days in July after schools finished, that you are not allowed to visit your family and haven't been allowed to since March. You aren't allowed to go with your two best mates for a beer - not even sitting in the beer garden- and haven't been allowed to since March, apart from those 10 days in July, unless you can sit outside in the park. You can't even go round to your sister's house and sit far apart in her garden to have a cup of tea. People are thinking fuck it because they have done this since July and it clearly hasn't reduced the numbers because alongside these privations from family and friend contacts, the government has wanted people in their workplaces and eating out (with their own household) and allowed them to go abroad and not properly quarantined them.

Here in the North West people ARE now rebelling - not all, by any means - because they perceive that the measures we have been subject to have been economically biased when people just want to be allowed to visit their grandkids or hug their Mum. Given the choice of going back to work in their office and see their colleagues each day or being allowed to visit their brother and nephews, most people would prefer to have stayed working at home whenever this is possible and stay off the buses and the supermarket to buy lunch, but be allowed to see their mum. The government has emphasised a "return to business" - to offices, public transport, etc - that feels lacking in compassion and nonsensical. I understand the theoretical science - that people are more likely to social distance at work, employers are meant to make the workplace covid compliant etc - but they forgot that people need their social networks and it is cruel, genuinely cruel, to expect people to sacrifice contact with loved ones for months and months and months whilst being expected to travel to work in an office.

And even now they still aren't saying "avoid your workplace and public transport, work from home everyone, but go see your mum, sit in her garden and take her some flowers". Instead they are saying, " Mix with even fewer of those people you love. You have all been stupid and not done it properly and look where you are. We are going to tighten this up even more. " And to cap it all off mist of the country is now at levels WAY above the figures we were at when these restrictions were placed, but they haven't been given these same privations. People haven't seen their elderly parents for at least 7 months. Of course compliance us worse than in areas where they have been able to mix all through the Summer holidays and just now are having these same restrictions imposed.

People aren't being stupid. They are being human. Humans are social animals and we need the contact of those we love. They need to find a way to allow for this AND keep the economy going.

MRex · 21/10/2020 13:28

We can all skip over posts and go to the bits that interest us

Actually, we can't, it's impossible to spot data in this situation. We are living through difficult times where there are negative impacts on people all over the country, it does not excuse posters being so rude as to suggest that nobody has any critical thought nor has knowledge and experience that hasn't come from this one thread, moot that there is no capability to put the lengthy chat elsewhere. It's frankly bizarre to suggest that data on mobility, deprivation, mental health, hospitalisations and other NHS treatment, compliance etc are irrelevant in comparison with one person's opinions.
I'm out, those determined to turn it into a chat thread - well done, enjoy shouting in the data free echo chamber you're creating.
@BigChocFrenzy - you might as well just leave the links off the next thread, apparently interest in data is "simplist narrative", whatever that's supposed to mean. (Actually a simplist should be someone who gathers herbs, so it could mean anything.)

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 13:31

FATE "University of Nottingham showing a proportional increase in staff cases"

So the expected spread from students to staff, despite much isolation of students, as some f2f teaching is unavoidable.

It illustrates the much greater problems of isolating the vulnerable in society

Does anyone have info about age demographics in Uni staff ?
Or hospitalisation ?
SInce they are more likely to have PhDs, I'd expect it to skew older than school teachers ?
In my Post-doc research fellowship in the early 1980s, I noted the numbers of senior staff in their 60s and even older

Noticeable that Van-Tam - like public health in Germany from March - was warning about high risks to over-60
It really isn't just the "old" in the sense of very frail, but those with normally 20-30 years ahead

OP posts:
MarshaBradyo · 21/10/2020 13:32

It's frankly bizarre to suggest that data on mobility, deprivation, mental health, hospitalisations and other NHS treatment, compliance etc are irrelevant

No they are not irrelevant at all. I agree with you hence suggesting data of this kind can be included.

Anyway MRrex I appreciate your, and BigChoc data and analysis. It is calm and useful. And others. So I hope you’re not out.

sashagabadon · 21/10/2020 13:33

I have been following this thread since maybe April when it was London (my home town) that was under the cosh. I liked it then precisely because it felt calm and was focused on the data and I was less interested in the analysis ( which I think can be subjective anyway and can be found elsewhere ).
I would prefer this thread stays a mainly data thread as it has been for months until about September when it seemed to change it’s focus (schools related I think) but it is not my thread so not for me to say and I can of course scroll past

CulturallyAppropriatedName · 21/10/2020 13:34

And the data is super important, I find the tracking of cases, breakthroughs and info incredibly helpful and have followed these threads for months. The problem is the data says households mixing is the problem so they keep pushing back on that without taking account of the fact that, at some point, people are going to say "you know what, I need to see my sister more than I need to keep these rules"; and that is where data PLUS psychology is so vital.

TheSunIsStillShining · 21/10/2020 13:35

On the social sciences part.
I'd like to see a proper study with control group involved on this:
"The Censuswide survey of 2,000 UK 16- to 25-year-olds also found that almost half of those in learning worried that missing out on education would set them back for the rest of their life, with more than a third feeling their education had “gone to waste”." (www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/21/figures-lay-bare-toll-of-pandemic-on-uk-childrens-mental-health)

  1. What if we told children that this is an opportunity to go beyond curriculum and let teachers help kids on finding their own way? What if we kept banging on how positive this was and how they can take control of their learning? The power of words are immense, why use it to make everyone feel worse?
  1. What do we adults expect? Every bloody news outlet is doomin' about "rest of their lives"... Let's be realistic. Let's talk about it with proper data backing it up. A survey of 2000 kids is neither representative, nor valid really.

Anne Longfield, the children’s commissioner for England, said the Guardian findings were “powerful” and “really concerning”.
Interesting maybe, but how can a few days/weeks of reporting be concerning to the only one person who is supposed to be in charge? Did it really have to be a newspaper to tug at tearducts for her to realise that there will be a problem?

  1. Talking about kids aged 7-24 is stupid and populistic (or following an agenda). A 7 year old misses 1-2 first years*: yes, it might take time to catch up, but nothing life impacting necessarily. The impact this shitshow has on 10 year olds and 23 are vastly different, also non- comparable. A uni student missing pub crawls, but getting lectures online is no way en par with a 10 year old being on/off school and loosing the will to learn.

A survey of 61 secondary school children from Place2Be, a charity that offers counselling in schools, shows self-harm reports rose 77%, from 48 to 85 students, and suicide ideation increased by 81%, to 76, over the last two months.
On Red's point: this is data, but the context explains the huge bias that's built into it and why it is the most un-useful piece of numbers.

In general I do think that there is a huge toll on kids of almost every age. So not saying that there is not a problem now and won't be issues later. Just want it to be studied, researched properly. And for someone high enough to actually think about the small changes in comms that could alleviate some of the milder issues before they become real deep-rooted problems.

*Anecdote: My son started school in Yr2 as we moved at that time. He was in kindergarden before where they did not learn to read/write. Here, by yr2 most kids know how to read/write, so my son was behind by a min. of 1 year. In 3 months he learnt both. Yes, we have an impact that is visible even now, but it could have been prevented, but was not. He has terrible handwriting.

EducatingArti · 21/10/2020 13:40

@BigChocFrenzy

FATE "University of Nottingham showing a proportional increase in staff cases"

So the expected spread from students to staff, despite much isolation of students, as some f2f teaching is unavoidable.

It illustrates the much greater problems of isolating the vulnerable in society

Does anyone have info about age demographics in Uni staff ?
Or hospitalisation ?
SInce they are more likely to have PhDs, I'd expect it to skew older than school teachers ?
In my Post-doc research fellowship in the early 1980s, I noted the numbers of senior staff in their 60s and even older

Noticeable that Van-Tam - like public health in Germany from March - was warning about high risks to over-60
It really isn't just the "old" in the sense of very frail, but those with normally 20-30 years ahead

No data but from working in a university I'd say similar age spread to schools. There are lots of young post-docs and then people of different ages as they progress up the academic career ladder. There are also a huge number of admin and support staff that again can vary in age. There may be a greater number of older than 65 in a university compared with a school as retirees come back to teach part-time or professors are really into their research and don't retire at usual age.
ancientgran · 21/10/2020 13:42

The restrictions are working here, they have worked in other places. If they dont work in Manchester than maybe you need the sort of lockdowns now taking place in Wales. BCF it is comments like this, the implications that it is Manchesters fault. When someone is having a bad time there is no need to rub salt in the wound. Perhaps that wasn't how it was meant but can't you see that is hurtful and unnecessary.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 13:43

@MRex

We can all skip over posts and go to the bits that interest us

Actually, we can't, it's impossible to spot data in this situation. We are living through difficult times where there are negative impacts on people all over the country, it does not excuse posters being so rude as to suggest that nobody has any critical thought nor has knowledge and experience that hasn't come from this one thread, moot that there is no capability to put the lengthy chat elsewhere. It's frankly bizarre to suggest that data on mobility, deprivation, mental health, hospitalisations and other NHS treatment, compliance etc are irrelevant in comparison with one person's opinions.
I'm out, those determined to turn it into a chat thread - well done, enjoy shouting in the data free echo chamber you're creating.
@BigChocFrenzy - you might as well just leave the links off the next thread, apparently interest in data is "simplist narrative", whatever that's supposed to mean. (Actually a simplist should be someone who gathers herbs, so it could mean anything.)

... @MRex Please stay

These threads have gone off track a few times, understandable when some pp are obviously suffering,
but we do then revert to more data, if people keep posting that

OP posts:
OrangeLeavesYellowLeaves · 21/10/2020 13:46

Ancientgran that's your interpretation.

I took a totally different one!
Just goes to show.

EducatingArti · 21/10/2020 13:48

I think it may not be so much that the restrictions are "working" in lower rate areas but that they got to a much lower point during lockdown than eg the NW. Rates are still increasing in many lower prevalence areas, just not very fast at the moment! But then, as we know this is the nature of exponential growth. Tiny changes for ages, then suddenly...

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 13:51

"BCF it is comments like this, the implications that it is Manchesters fault."

We can and should correct any such impression (which I don't think was meant)
Manchester - and Burnham - are NOT the ones turning a public health crisis into a social and economic crisis and a crisis of democracy

The faults come from a disgracefully incompetent, bullying and arrogant government that have given key public health jobs to unqualified cronies,
spaffed umpteen billions on contracts to incompetent firms and then - because not their cronies ? - withholding money from near-broke areas of the country

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 13:59

@EducatingArti

I think it may not be so much that the restrictions are "working" in lower rate areas but that they got to a much lower point during lockdown than eg the NW. Rates are still increasing in many lower prevalence areas, just not very fast at the moment! But then, as we know this is the nature of exponential growth. Tiny changes for ages, then suddenly...
... Also the underlying levels and how quickly they increase are related to factors that may be higher in the NW urban areas than some others:

. Higher levels of longterm deprivation
. Lower % of jobs with full / high sick pay, hence less ability to survive financially if isolating
. higher % of public-facing jobs & fewer WfH
. Higher number of very high risk plans / jobs - food processing ?

Missing out on those key summer months, to meet up with family and chill, meant it has been all one long grind
Maybe it would have been better to accept those levels for say a 2 months summer breather and then clamp own again ?
I just don't know

OP posts:
Shitfuckoh · 21/10/2020 13:59

Eek, I feel a bit awkward posting this now but just wondering if there's any way of finding out test & trace figures?
We heard a lot in the summer about how many people/contacts they had managed to 'trace' & what percentage they were unable to reach. but I haven't seen any data on it recently.

HoldingTight · 21/10/2020 14:06

@Shitfuckoh

Eek, I feel a bit awkward posting this now but just wondering if there's any way of finding out test & trace figures? We heard a lot in the summer about how many people/contacts they had managed to 'trace' & what percentage they were unable to reach. but I haven't seen any data on it recently.

I believe this is the most recent report. (I hope it's what you were after) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/926830/TesttandTraceeWeek19.pdf

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 14:07

@Shitfuckoh

Eek, I feel a bit awkward posting this now but just wondering if there's any way of finding out test & trace figures? We heard a lot in the summer about how many people/contacts they had managed to 'trace' & what percentage they were unable to reach. but I haven't seen any data on it recently.
... In the UK section of the OP, this link gives weekly reports with quite a lot of data on NHS t&t

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports

e.g. latest report is to 7 October:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/926830/TesttandTraceeWeek19.pdf

"The median distance to in-person testing sites (pillar 2) for booked tests between 1 October and 7 October has decreased to 3.3 miles from 3.7 miles in the previous week.

• 87,918 people were transferred to the contact tracing system between 1 October and 7 October.
This includes approximately 11,000 cases that were delayed from the previous reporting period.
The number of people transferred has been increasing steeply since the end of August with almost 10 times as many people being transferred in the most recent week compared to the end of August.

• Of those transferred to the contact tracing system between 1 October and 7 October, 76.8% were reached and asked to provide information about their contacts.
This has declined since the beginning of September but increased slightly compared to the previous week.

• 216,627 people were identified as coming into close contact with someone who had tested positive between 1 October and 7 October.
Twice as many contacts were identified in the latest week compared with the previous week, continuing the sharp upward trend since the end of August.

For those where communication details were available, 76.9% were reached and asked to self-isolate.
Taking into account all contacts identified, 62.6% were reached."

< one issue seems to be missing / false contact details >

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 14:12

Of those 216,627 in 1st week October, how many have contact details

So 62.6% of "all contacts identified" - which may still omit some with false names
but that leaves > 81,000 potentially infected that week could NOT be contacted

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 14:30

Scotland
1,739 cases
28 deaths

Wales
962 cases
14 deaths

UK, with England & NI, to come later as always.

PHE consolidation - deaths

NW highest region, followed by NE & Yorkshire
Deaths are all age 40+ with age 60+ dominating

(data & tables on age & regions from COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats)

NHS England reported 94 COVID-19 hospital deaths that occurred over 7 dates:

18 = 20th Oct (1d ago)
40 = 19th Oct (2d ago)
12 = 18th Oct (3d ago)
10 = 17th Oct (4d ago)
8 = 16th Oct (5d ago)
4 = 15th Oct (6d ago)
2 = 14th Oct (7d ago)

68 were reported last Wednesday.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
OP posts:
ancientgran · 21/10/2020 14:47

Ancientgran that's your interpretation.

I took a totally different one!

Neither are the point though are they. Red came on here and was clearly upset and some people have been unpleasant and she has gone away more upset.

Is that what anyone wants in these times? The govt are certainly doing well at dividing everybody.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 15:16

Excellent long article in the FT, with history from the beginning to now, data from around the world

Covid-19: The global crisis in data

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/

Looking at the section on UK - England especially:

"establishing the number of Covid-19 victims has been a problem both in the UK and in other countries around the world

By whatever measure the pandemic’s grimmest accounting is computed, the UK’s death toll - and particularly England’s remains among the highest in the world.

By its headline figure, 38,524 people in England have died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test,
but this rises to 42,672 if you extend the cutoff to 60 days, according to the UK’s coronavirus dashboard.

The Office for National Statistics, meanwhile, has tallied 50,642 death certificates mentioning Covid-19 up to October 2, and, if you begin counting on March 6, the day that the 100th positive case was recorded, 56,537 deaths in excess of the averagee^ for the same period in the past five years.
This figure includes deaths from all causes, including Covid-19.

The UK’s experience demonstrates how seemingly precise tallies of the virus’s victims can vary considerably using alternative definitions and administrative processes.
This also explains why national headline death tolls are almost certainly undercounts of the pandemic’s true, but only imprecisely knowable, human cost.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
OP posts:
user1493494961 · 21/10/2020 15:23

I agree with FATEdestiny, I'm also here for the calm analysis.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2020 15:26

Historical excess deaths have Peru and Ecuador at the top

Peru e.g. is coping with a parallel epidemic of Dengue Fever, which illustrates the obvious - how 2 serious epidemics can overwhelm health services
Relevance to us: a reminder to get jabs for flu, the only other likely epidemic atm

However, the UK has among the next highest levels of excess deaths, with Spain, Italy, Belgium comparable

Sweden surprisingly high up too, their first wave puts them much higher than the other Scandi / Nordic countries

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
OP posts:
IloveJKRowling · 21/10/2020 15:33

I think a bit of kindness wouldn't go amiss

No one owns a thread, no one is in a position to dictate to other members, if you think people are being inappropriate then report it but I can't see why people can't talk about data and the very real effects on people and communities

Agree 100% ancientgran. If anyone thinks people are breaking talk guidelines then report to Mumsnet HQ. Beyond that, a bit of kindness would be good.

I think that those who can still analyse the data from the UK dispassionately without simultaneously feeling angry, despairing and wanting to emigrate are probably in a very lucky position and I suspect there are not many people capable of this who have had real impacts on their real lives.

Demanding that others only talk calmly, without emotion (and for the record Red actually does post a lot of data - and analysis) is equivalent to me demanding that anyone that isn't a UK mum shouldn't post because it's Mumsnet. Both are completely outside of the poster's control and also not in the spirit of the site.

I think there are some very intelligent posters who were contributing a huge amount who have already left. This thread is in danger of becoming an echo chamber that blindly accepts government data to be representative of reality if people who have real life experience of the data gaps stop posting. I think that would be very sad.

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2020 15:41

Bullying = pointing out that data can be politicised and that it needs context and that people who don't like that are missing half the picture. Saying that what someone points out 'this is the only data that matters' this might not actually be the case and perhaps we should look at other data too rather than just taking the 'important data' at complete face value.

The stuff with Van Tam yesterday was like a magician misdirection trick in the sense that I'm inclined to go 'hmm yes, is that the full picture? Perhaps we should look at that as its concerning but maybe we should be looking for other clues too'. Whilst thats important data, which shouldn't be ignored we are getting into ever more complex stuff and I think thats where the problem lies.

After years on here I've worked out that people just don't like inconvient truths pointing out and the easiest way to shut people up is to accuse them of bullying, rather than to address the point that people are making, if its a difficult point.

I've spent years looking at data to do with childbirth and how thats manipulated and presented that is as important as the data itself. When the data becomes difficult, complicated and at time contridictory it sometimes involves putting people in a position which challenges the opinion they've already formed thats uncomfortable and produces anxiety. And really thats what its about. People want to feel safe rather than look at stuff that might be awkward and might alert them to the fact that actually risk is arising from doing 'the right thing' in terms of covid not just covid itself.

Its the whole, 'don't forget to look over your shoulder', type mentality. When other problems creep up behind you, it is unnerving.

Data is not supposed to make you feel purely safe and comfortable. If it is becoming that, you should always use it to question yourself about the extent to which you are using as a safety blanket to hide behind. If its making your feel safe and comfortable and the world outside your window doesn't look too clever in other respects, then its always worth doing a proper reassessment of whats going out there.

I get why people are doing it. Really I do. Its reassuring and it helps you process whats going on. The trouble is I don't feel I don't have the luxury of that in the same way. Not when its one your doorstep.

What annoys me most is when you are accused of all manner of things in sharing that frustration and anxiety. And instead it all about how people in other places are doing thing better / are somehow more morally superior / you should take even more pain that they aren't sharing in. Rather than thinking of it as structurial inequality, bad luck and incompetence thats driven the situation to a point beyond which it can easily be managed. Its this idea of shifting the blame and responsibility which is manifesting in little comments and digs... and after a while that grates and comes to an almightly head because people have failed to acknowledge those problems over a sustained period of time.

Its one lesson I've firmly learned over the last few years. Do not belittle and disregard lived experience. It may not be scientific or measurable nor may it say the things that people intrepret to mean - it still has a value that shouldn't be ignored and it points to all the things that haven't been picked up and measured in data. And thats where you should ask the questions about where data has failed.

Beyond that I do end up wondering if in all the modelling the behaviorial scientists added in government incompentence to the degree thats happening. And on a localised basis. It would be reassuring if they did. I have my doubts given the sheer inpredicatability and voliality of this government and for this reason I do fear we are more into unchartered waters and beyond the limits of predictions about a prolonged crisis than we realise.

We look to data to provide an understandable format about what is happening, to reassure us or to help us criticise. However the sheer magnitude of whats happening and the knock on effects - particularly when you fragment the country into blocks and create borders which don't match the lived lives of people - is exceeding the data purity of deaths and hospitalisation and these issues are growing ever more complex and difficult. The problems are growing and are multi faceted and no longer simply about covid itself.

Thats a difficult thing to confront and be willing / able to process.

Its rather like a data bomb going off in your head with about 6 different competing concerns going on and not having a clue how to unpick it. Of course its anxiety producing. That doesn't mean thats not the point at which this crisis has reached though. Nor does it mean that this is something which we should ignore, dismiss nor frame as people merely being over emotional etc etc.

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