Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@MarshaBradyo
Where's the money going to come from if we continue as we are?

No we can't get what's already wasted back but what we can do is stop wasting any more.

And every little does help. Of course it's a drop in the ocean but it all adds up. So we can start by dropping the proposed payrise for MPs.

[quote QueenOllie]Saw this posted earlier
Lancashire still arguing about tier 3...
[[https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/lancashire-sets-out-funding-demands-19099464.amp?twitterimpression=true]][/quote]
This is the main issue with greater restrictions

‘LDRS said local authority leaders wanted a ministerial commitment to a multi-million pound funding package first.

County Cllr Driver says that such support – to temper the worst effects of Tier 3 restrictions and enable better enforcement of them – is vital.’

Anyone ie Sage or Keir can state we need lockdown but times that figure by everyone asking for the same and more. Tier 3 isn’t that severe.

@cologne4711
If it would have minimal effect and there's little demand for flights, then it's a win win. Easy measures to take. Nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Flights might have been 90% reduced but we still had 100s of 1000s of international travellers coming through our airports during our semi lockdown. No tests, no restrictions, no (proper) quarantine. People headed off straight from the airports onto public transport - trains, buses, and taxis. They continue to do this.

Spain had a stricter lockdown than us. Much good it did them
It worked well. Until they opened their borders. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't us that brought it back there.

@PrayingandHoping
Yes perhaps some in the east of England might prefer to be excluded from a national approach. Then again others would welcome it. I have friends in that part of the country. They are very much in support of a national policy. Their words are 'its low here - and we want to keep it that way'.

ShitFuckOh Have you asked school how they suggest you bring in your DS ?
It's not that you can ask anyone else to take him in the circumstances

Maybe you could take your 3-yr-old in the car - if well enough - and then DS gets out alone and walks 10 yards or whatever to a teacher in a mask, if he is too young to go in alone

It strikes me as the numbers being argued for by Lancashire are really not that large on the scale of the size of the county (and the problem it is facing!) - details in the lancs live post from Queen Ollie, when we can find billions for non existent PPE companies and Serco etc, a few million to help support the schools seems totally fine by me!

Shit

I would write to your mp.
And the papers.
It's a conundrum.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

It strikes me as the numbers being argued for by Lancashire are really not that large on the scale of the size of the county (and the problem it is facing!) - details in the lancs live post from Queen Ollie, when we can find billions for non existent PPE companies and Serco etc, a few million to help support the schools seems totally fine by me!

No it’s not that large considering but it is yet even more each time tier 3 negotiations happen.

It’s more what it would cost to do the circuit breaker.

I've heard rumour (but that's all it is) that Manchester and Lancashire will be tier 3 and it's not supported by local leaders but enforced by government

Give the south more restrictions if u like, like tier 2. But a total lockdown? No

In the north we were locked down in March when only London had a significant problem. Swings and roundabouts come to mind. I’m not pro a national lockdown, but this argument is unreasonable imo.

I can't fathom why they are forcing dc in school.

Because the most “at risk” children from a normal safeguarding perspective won’t come in / be sent in if attendance isn’t forced. We cannot have a situation where those most children most at risk of abuse or exploitation are kept at home with nobody checking on them. Perhaps the compromise would be ECV children exempt from school, but only with a medical certificate.

Buying us time, keeping NHS sane...

This is a major sticking point for me. Buying time for what? A vaccine that may never come? A functioning test and trace system which they categorically failed to get up in running in the previous 6 months? Keeping the nhs sane is a little hollow for those of use who have received appalling care (with long term implications) or lost loved ones due to appalling care over the last few months. Tell me what would be different this time, or is it just another sticking plaster? Trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of madness (or science 😁).

I've been experimental with the "experimental" UK dashboard

Postcode is a useful new feature
It accepts English, Welsh & NI postcodes, but not Scottish

The first one wasn't a true lockdown. Lots of not really essential shops and services remained open.

The first "not a true lockdown" was highly effective at pushing R under 1 and demonstrated COVID could be contained without super draconian measures. We didn't need to follow Spain with their blanket stay-at-home requirements for children (which, in my personal opinion, were completely barbaric). In fact, we could have had fewer restrictions (e.g. there was no reason to close down garden centres but we didn't know that back in March).

The question is how we find a fine balance of maintaining R under 1 at this time of the year while still running the economy at the maximum potential capacity. Unfortunately, this can only be achieved by trial and error. We might have managed to strike a temporary balance of controlling virus/opening up in July but we (the government, the scientific community, etc) probably underestimated COVID seasonality. People used to say it was seasonal but no-one appreciated the extent. The positivity numbers started spiking on August 24. Whitty's charts from Sep 9 press conference were quite striking - it looked as if the switch had been turned on and the numbers began to balloon.

Circuit breaker may indeed buy us time but it is not a sustainable solution. We need to find the right balance of measures. All the European countries are pretty much in the same boat. The numbers are going up across the board. Some countries (e.g. Germany) are doing much better than others but no-one has so far been able to reverse the trend.

@SheepandCow

Spain had a stricter lockdown than us. Much good it did them It worked well. Until they opened their borders. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't us that brought it back there.

@PrayingandHoping
Yes perhaps some in the east of England might prefer to be excluded from a national approach. Then again others would welcome it. I have friends in that part of the country. They are very much in support of a national policy. Their words are 'its low here - and we want to keep it that way'.

It wasn’t only the borders what affected Spain. The conditions of food pickers , the summer bbqs, the family get togethers , and many more close contact meetings is what has done the damage in Spain.

The first places that had problems after opening borders were Lleida , a marina and ordizia. Non of them known for being touristic places

Winter I agree with you especially re Spain and all of it actually

I think that "finding the right measures" would include transferring track and trace to regional public sector with appropriate funding. A 3 week circuit breaker would give us time to do this.

re letting parents keep children home:

it's a balance of risks, as no option benefits everyone

Yes, the minority at risk of abuse would be at higher risk,
but the great majority of children and parents - plus teachers - would be at lower risk with smaller class size or homeschooling
and in particular those who are ECV

The absolute minimum should be ECV children or those with ECV household member allowed to stay home
Obviously this logically should mean ECV staff / household member too - which may be why the govt won't allow it

It's been allowed for both since school return in Germany (with doctor's certificate)
which imo may be why there seems little wish here for pt school from either staff or parents:
those at highest risk are allowed to stay home

On ECV children, no one was allowed to stay home this term is that right?

Has this changed but only in very high risk areas?

New guidance
Clinically extremely vulnerable children are advised not to attend school, because the risk of exposure to the virus in your area is currently very high.

Your school will make appropriate arrangements for you to be able to continue your education at home.

I'm down south (in a pretty low, but growing area), and I'd say that a fair majority I've spoken to are in favour of a strict lockdown circuit breaker in the hope that we won't increase the numbers and might be okay to have a decent Christmas.

Sorry, I should have included ECV staff or household members in my compromise. It is anecdotal (sorry) but ECV staff where I work would be fine coming in to school (in my high risk area) if appropriate measures were taken. For example, 6th form students in masks or rooms big enough to guarantee 2m from children.

@BigChocFrenzy

I've been experimental with the "experimental" UK dashboard

Postcode is a useful new feature
It accepts English, Welsh & NI postcodes, but not Scottish

It does actually tried it out earlier up we pop.

@MarshaBradyo

On ECV children, no one was allowed to stay home this term is that right?

Has this changed but only in very high risk areas?

New guidance
Clinically extremely vulnerable children are advised not to attend school, because the risk of exposure to the virus in your area is currently very high.

Your school will make appropriate arrangements for you to be able to continue your education at home.

No it hasn't changed, even in high risk areas.

August what do you mean? that is copied and pasted from new shielding guidance.

Do you mean it was always the case?

here

We're almost at the end of the tether... I mean the thread limit.

"It accepts English, Welsh & NI postcodes, but not Scottish"

I kept trying different postcodes for Glasgow, but it refused
I didn't try other Scottish ones though

@TheSunIsStillShining

We're almost at the end of the tether... I mean the thread limit.

... we've only had 925, well this is #926