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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

975 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 21:52

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
45
BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2020 18:09

Stats for above (if you read German):

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html?nn=13490888

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2020 18:10

Better link and download pdf

www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html?

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2020 18:22

IMF forecasts

UK GDP fall will be 9.8% by EOY
Italy & Spain even worse, India too

For 2021, UK forecast is only a partial recovery of 5.9%, so the economy would still be smaller than 2019
However, I don't see if they included the likely effect of v hard Brexit / No Deal on top of Covid Hmm

Global economy predicted to contract by 4.4%, followed by rebound of 5.2% in 2021,
so a deep but short V-shaped ~3 year recession remains likely globally and in many Western countries

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54522844

The IMF warns that the global recovery is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread.

Research the agency published last week suggested that the downturn was only partly attributable to lockdown restrictions on activity imposed by governments.

Much of it reflected voluntary social distancing by people reluctant to do things that expose them to increased risk of infection.

The implication of that is that a complete recovery needs more decisive progress in tackling the virus, such as a vaccine.

The report says that most economies will suffer lasting damage.
There is likely to be what it calls "a major setback to living standards relative to what was expected before the pandemic".
The IMF warns that extreme poverty is likely to rise for the first time in more than twenty years.

Inequality is also likely to increase, the report says.

The crisis has particularly affected women, people with precarious employment, and those with relatively lower educational attainment.

OP posts:
NeurotrashWarrior · 13/10/2020 18:35

Figures in special needs schools are even lower, at 82% attendance, and in state-funded alternative provision, such as for pupils who might have been excluded from mainstream schools, attendance is 60%.

Covid secondary school disruption getting worse in England www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54524291

Hmmph · 13/10/2020 18:37

Schools data on BBC today

“There are 21% of secondary schools counted as not fully open - up from 18% the previous week and 8% in mid-September.”

But attendance at secondary is up 1% to 87%

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54524291

Hmmph · 13/10/2020 18:41

BBC again about unemployment. I heard this on the radio earlier and I must say I am very surprised that it’s only the highest level for 3 years. I was expecting the highest level since 1940s. Three years isn’t too bad surely?

“The UK unemployment rate has surged to its highest level in over three years as the pandemic continues to hit jobs.
The unemployment rate grew to 4.5% in the three months to August, compared with 4.1% in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile redundancies rose to their highest level since 2009, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.”

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54520521

SheepandCow · 13/10/2020 18:42

I notice the middle-aged often seem overlooked. Loads of reports focus on (cases, but particularly deaths) 'the over 70s' and then the 'under 40s'. Little mention or focus on the 40-70 age group.

Germany was treating at a much earlier stage than the UK. Hence one reason (amongst several) for our (UK) much higher death rate than Germany.

I should imagine access to icu beds makes a difference in death rates. More younger people (under 70) are at risk of dying in the UK because of this, presumably.

Prokupatuscrakedatus · 13/10/2020 18:52

BCF
Universities are not back yet.
And will be largely online unlesss necessary (lab work etc) - masks and SD regulations apply.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2020 18:57

Thx, Prokup I hadn't realised they go back this late
but I had heard teaching would be online except for practicals

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2020 18:59

Prokup Do you have any link / school stats for Germany ?
Apart from the early rush of several closures when schools reopened, things seem to have died down
No classes sent home in my village, but with pop 8k that tells us little

OP posts:
ancientgran · 13/10/2020 19:11

SheepandCow I'm unreasonably pleased to be classed with the middle aged. After the day from hell, power cut so freezing house and no hot food or even a coffee and a water leak, I needed the boost.

Prokupatuscrakedatus · 13/10/2020 19:11

I'll search around.

(DS school has two isolations among pupils but no cases and two shielding teachers and Berlin guidelines for schools have been updated for after autumn break.)

FingonTheValiant · 13/10/2020 19:14

French cases still looking much lower than before 12993 today. But 117 deaths.

FingonTheValiant · 13/10/2020 19:15

Macron addressing the nation tomorrow night.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2020 19:18

@SheepandCow

I notice the middle-aged often seem overlooked. Loads of reports focus on (cases, but particularly deaths) 'the over 70s' and then the 'under 40s'. Little mention or focus on the 40-70 age group.

Germany was treating at a much earlier stage than the UK. Hence one reason (amongst several) for our (UK) much higher death rate than Germany.

I should imagine access to icu beds makes a difference in death rates. More younger people (under 70) are at risk of dying in the UK because of this, presumably.

.... The process in Germany from the start of the first wave was that once someone is tested positive, they usually receive a daily phone call, which is partly to check they are isolating at home, if they need groceries or meds delivered and partly to check health and ask if symptoms are worsening

If symptoms get beyond the "bad cold" stage, then there are regular home visits by health teams in full PPE spacesuits,
who measure blood O2, BP, heart etc

In particular, people with Covid often don't realise their O2 has dropped too low, so these professional checks are important, to whip them off to hospital and start O2 treatment.
During the first wave, hospital specialists were saying how important it was to treat early, to avoid the disease worsening rapidly.

There is massive spare ICU capacity, but most only needed to be treated early with O2 in a non-ICU ward;
also with anti-virals and meds for secondary viruses / bacteria that sometimes hit people weakened by Covid.

  • reminder to everyone to get a flu jab if you haven't yet !
OP posts:
Prokupatuscrakedatus · 13/10/2020 19:18

BCF
You alreaady know this?
www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.38.2001645

ceeveebee · 13/10/2020 19:21

[quote Hmmph]BBC again about unemployment. I heard this on the radio earlier and I must say I am very surprised that it’s only the highest level for 3 years. I was expecting the highest level since 1940s. Three years isn’t too bad surely?

“The UK unemployment rate has surged to its highest level in over three years as the pandemic continues to hit jobs.
The unemployment rate grew to 4.5% in the three months to August, compared with 4.1% in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile redundancies rose to their highest level since 2009, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.”

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54520521[/quote]
I expect there will be more to come as furlough comes to an end.

I can’t find anything more up to date than this, but as of 20 September, around 9% of the workforce was on full or partial furlough. Given that at that date, there were very few businesses that were required to be closed, some of jobs are at risk as the furlough scheme winds to an end and is replaced by the part time job support scheme (where employers have to pay at least 33% of wages plus a 22% top up)

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/latest#business-impact-of-the-coronavirus

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2020 19:22

[quote Prokupatuscrakedatus]BCF
You alreaady know this?
www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.38.2001645[/quote]
...
Yes thx, I already posted that in the studies thread
Unfortunately only goes up to 31 Aug, so some states not even back after summer hols then

OP posts:
FingonTheValiant · 13/10/2020 19:25

Ile de France predict 100% of their ICU beds will be filled with Covid in November. There’s talk of a curfew for Paris (I don’t mean amongst the public, politicians are talking about it on the radio etc).

MarshaBradyo · 13/10/2020 19:32

[quote Hmmph]BBC again about unemployment. I heard this on the radio earlier and I must say I am very surprised that it’s only the highest level for 3 years. I was expecting the highest level since 1940s. Three years isn’t too bad surely?

“The UK unemployment rate has surged to its highest level in over three years as the pandemic continues to hit jobs.
The unemployment rate grew to 4.5% in the three months to August, compared with 4.1% in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile redundancies rose to their highest level since 2009, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.”

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54520521[/quote]
Interesting. I suppose we are still carrying some of it with furlough / grants etc

Oth debt is highest since between wars iirc (on LBC just now)

SheepandCow · 13/10/2020 19:33

@BigChocFrenzy
Germany really sets a gold standard in what to do.

pinkbalconyrailing · 13/10/2020 19:44

netherlands: sickness and death rates are dire.
from tomorrow restaurants, bars, sport clubs for adults will have to close.
no alkohol or soft drugs available for purchase between 8pm and 7am. public consumption also prohibited.
non essential shops must close by 8pm
offices must close unless they provide essential services that cannot be provided from home.

nos.nl/artikel/2352202-van-horeca-tot-sport-dit-zijn-vanaf-morgenavond-de-nieuwe-maatregelen.html

Regulus · 13/10/2020 19:45

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-54528807

Kier Starmer calls for circuit breaker lockdown.

Will this decrease the chance of Boris ordering one? Politically seeming to decide after the opposition would seem weak.

TheSunIsStillShining · 13/10/2020 19:51

What's the point of a circuit breaker now? Nothing changed.
I recall doing the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of stupidity (attributed to Einstein).

And again the wording. circuit breaker. don't kill granny. school closures. social distancing.

In other languages:
limited opening hours. physical distancing. online learning.

mostly clear and non-emotive.