Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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[quote Hmmph]BBC again about unemployment. I heard this on the radio earlier and I must say I am very surprised that it’s only the highest level for 3 years. I was expecting the highest level since 1940s. Three years isn’t too bad surely?

“The UK unemployment rate has surged to its highest level in over three years as the pandemic continues to hit jobs.
The unemployment rate grew to 4.5% in the three months to August, compared with 4.1% in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile redundancies rose to their highest level since 2009, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.”

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54520521[/quote]
There are many more to come. Husband’s firm but lots on notice of potential redundancy as soon as gov said furlough was ending end Oct. They all find out if redundant end of Oct, assume many in same boat

@BigChocFrenzy Very impressive re Germany. I assume that they had the same kind of approach to other illnesses pre-Covid?

[quote Hmmph]@BigChocFrenzy Very impressive re Germany. I assume that they had the same kind of approach to other illnesses pre-Covid?[/quote]
...
The health system normally has no expectation of waiting lists, rationing or postcode lottery

Home visits are normally very rare though for the able-bodied, but the health authorities deduced early on that a novel virus needed extra health checks and the O2 checks in particular turned out to be vital

Not just for the elderly - a 29-year-old gym rat who is a Brit expat / migrant wrote how he had a home visit which found his low blood O2 and whipped him off to hospital, when he hadn't felt particularly bad
Low O2 is often not noticed by the patient until after they have developed serious symptoms

We should all get oxometers.

We should learn from German health care after this.
Both my dc at different schools have had covid cases in their bubbles. I'm in low ish risk area.

However, we pay for a gold standard health service: 12% of GDP

Health - and education - have been maintained at a good level for decades, no cuts
There is an unwritten "social contract" that all the main parties follow, which keeps consistency in investment

This is because the voters want this level of services and vote to pay for them

I did buy an oximeter after seeing it on here back in April or whenever

A fair few did

Big choc do you mean it's simply been lifted out of party politics?

I wish they would simply do that here. Ring fence them away from politics. Ensure the same level of funding. People say the tories have undercut hospitals here but I remember towards the end of labour decade my two local hospitals were on their knees.

Everyone was terrified of ending up in one. The endless horror stories about them..

@Regulus

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-54528807

Kier Starmer calls for circuit breaker lockdown.

Will this decrease the chance of Boris ordering one? Politically seeming to decide after the opposition would seem weak.

Starmer called for it because he knows Johnson has no where to go but looking like he's made an appalling mistake which will cause NHS meltdown or he will have to conceed to an eventual second lockdown or circut breaker. The advice and the data mean Johnson has painted himself in a corner and Starmer (politically astutely) realises this. Starmer is in a win - win position on this because Johnson is so heavily reliant on restrictions in the absence of good track and trace and he's simply half arsed that as its only going to slow the problem at best rather than stop it.

Reality is on collision course for Johnson. And which ever unfortunate souls get caight up in it.

Marsha I mean generally in the UK. I have one as dd has resp issues but not sure where it is!!

@TheSunIsStillShining

What's the point of a circuit breaker now? Nothing changed. I recall doing the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of stupidity (attributed to Einstein).

And again the wording. circuit breaker. don't kill granny. school closures. social distancing.

In other languages:
limited opening hours. physical distancing. online learning.

mostly clear and non-emotive.

Jim Pickard @pickardje two Sage advisers say 2-week UK lockdown could save between 3,000 and 107,000 lives

t.co/oTT71dYXL5 via @financialtimes

yep it’s a massive range of outcomes and that in itself is fascinating - shows the limits to the predictive powers of even the Sage gurus

My opinion has been that each (developed) country needed an early lockdown when the virus was novel,

both to get cases down in an emergency situation

and to gain time to:
. flatten the curve so the health services were not overwhelmed
. build up health service capacity and infection control systems
. build up effective mass testing, track & trace systems
. develop treatment methods
. learn which SD measures are most effective, for cost-efficient targeting

When a country / government wasted the first lockdown time, it is very difficult to justify and gain public acceptance & high compliance for a 2nd one,
especially in regions that have been under stricter restrictions than the rest of the country for months already

• lockdown fatigue

Some countries that have managed well so far might need & choose 2 weeks added onto the Xmas / NY break.
Easier to get agreement for that if the public think the authorities have done a competent job

Agree Starmer has nothing to lose in calling for a circuit breaker. If it isn't needed, everybody will be so pleased they won't think about it, if it is needed then he's asked for it. Anyone with a relative dying in coming months (and there will be deaths regardless of what's done) can be encouraged to say Boris killed Grandpa because he didn't do a circuit breaker. The economy, job losses and kids out of school are the government's fault, so that's fine.

I thought we've all been expecting it for these last 2 weeks of October to catch half-term, or did I have the conversation with you lot on my dreams. My 5p is on Starmer having been informed there is to be a snap 2-week circuit breaker called this weekend to coincide with as many half terms as possible. So much more fun to say "I told him he had to do it", who can blame him.

@Autumngoldleaf

Big choc do you mean it's simply been lifted out of party politics?

I wish they would simply do that here. Ring fence them away from politics. Ensure the same level of funding. People say the tories have undercut hospitals here but I remember towards the end of labour decade my two local hospitals were on their knees.

Everyone was terrified of ending up in one. The endless horror stories about them..

... Not exactly The SPD would probably invest more than Merkel's CDU if they were the larger party However, as govt is always coalitions, it is more a change in emphasis

There is a political consensus that standards & investment in health & education must be maintained, not cut
So there is not the famine / feast cycle of UK politics

2 weeks added on to the October half-term is a feasible idea
but
if so, they must announce it soon, as I presume schools would appreciate a headsup !

@RedToothBrush
yes I know your right, but if we think ahead it looks like we will have these circuit breakers - then back to "normal" fudging the issue - then another one is needed. And blame/political game will commence with no regard to human life whatsoever.

My personal view is that Starmer* should not be using this as a political point scoring exercise but actually stand up in parliament, demant the 12bn back from serco/deloitte and demand a proper strategy to be presented.

The opposition (as small as they are) are the only ones with actual power. I can growl as much as I want, I have no legal or other means to have any actual effect on the gov.

*it looks like he is no better than any of them. Doesn't care about anything else but his own little pocket/power/whatever makes him tick.

Announcing it now also helps people to try and carry on... With 2 dc at separate schools both getting a hit in their year groups today, it feels like the noose is closing.

@BigChocFrenzy

2 weeks added on to the October half-term is a feasible idea but if so, they must announce it soon, as I presume schools would appreciate a headsup !

It will be announced at 2am on the Monday it will start. What else should we expect?

I think the circuit breakers proposed don't have schools closing for additional time, just timed with half term so they will be closed for some of it (a reasonable number of schools have 2 weeks anyway here). Still notice would be good as people will have holidays planned

"stand up in parliament, demant the 12bn back from serco/deloitte and demand a proper strategy to be presented."

That would be scoring political points
As would demanding the money back from openly crony contracts
As would demanding someone qualified instead of Dido Harding

When a government has been very unprofessional, it is difficult to demand they correct their mistakes without sounding party political

The opposition (as small as they are) are the only ones with actual power
The media has as much, if not more power.

@ancientgran
I'm pleased I managed to brighten up what sounds like a truly shit day. I hope all is sorted now with the power cut and leaks?

Who takes the hit on the holidays planned?

Is it mostly holiday companies, insurance or individuals? The first two will be straining a lot, first might be close to bust in some cases. Or government pick up bill adding to our future woes .

I thought the idea was 3 weeks, which would be the minimum needed for a lockdown to work

• since essential workers etc would continue to go out, use public transport

children of keyworkers would have to be in school, people would continue to grocery shop (and MNers would continue to go out for single bars of choc)

So schools would need to add on at least 1 week's hols; possibly 2 weeks for some

I don't see how it's party political.
I've seen people from both sides of the political debate crying 'we can't afford it' every time an effective containment measure is suggested. The money is very clearly there. It's just being thrown down the toilet.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/13/keir-starmer-urges-pm-to-impose-circuit-breaker-lockdown-on-england

Implies Starmer is proposing schools stay open at least...

@MarshaBradyo

Who takes the hit on the holidays planned?

Is it mostly holiday companies, insurance or individuals? The first two will be straining a lot, first might be close to bust in some cases. Or government pick up bill adding to our future woes .

... Whatever measures are planned, imo holidays abroad should be stopped until spring

Controversial I know, but I disagreed with them being allowed this summer
I'd have mothballed - and financed - that sector to save the rest of the economy

No surprise:
Track & trace in Germany indicated for several weeks that the 2nd wave here mainly came from returning holidaymakers and the infections that spread out all over the country from them
The cost of the 2nd wave imo dwarfs the cost of mothballing 1 sector