Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@Autumngoldleaf

Announcing it now also helps people to try and carry on... With 2 dc at separate schools both getting a hit in their year groups today, it feels like the noose is closing.

My 3 year old needs to isolate as of yesterday until mid next week (Nursery returns Wednesday) due to 'close contact' with a positive case there. DC2 can't go to school (the same place as the nursery case) as I can't get him there AND look after the isolating 3 year old. My eldest is currently able to go due to transport but brought a letter home today to say Covid case in that primary school too but not a close contact.

It feels like it's moving in fast now. At this moment in time, I'd welcome a circuit break. I think doing something would enable pupilss have that little bit extra in school because the way it's looking now isn't positive.

"isolation" of returning holidaymakers cannot be effectively enforced due to the numbers

I don't necessarily agree that there wouldn't be public compliance for what would actually be a first proper lockdown. The first one wasn't a true lockdown. Lots of not really essential shops and services remained open - and the biggie was keeping the borders completely unrestricted with no proper quarantine. No lockdown will produce sustainably long-term results under those circumstances.

Selling it to the public also depends largely on the narrative. A constant defeatist inaccurate message that we tried it once and failed (not true because we never tried it) is no good. Of course it undermines the objective. However, explaining the reality - that we'd need a proper lockdown - with restricted borders included - would quite likely work. Explain to people how containing Covid means short-term hardship - but longer-term it's worth it, because we'd then be free to start focusing on economic recovery and return to proper normality. Albeit with no holidays for a year. Not great for the travel industry (but good for the environment) - but then neither is continuing as we have for the last 8-9 months. It would at least save schools, hospitals, offices, bars, pubs, restaurants, gyms, beauty salons, casinos,v theatres, sports and more.

As people say, we tried the not proper lockdown approach - and it failed. Now it's time to try the proper lockdown approach. That's the quickest way back to start on economic recovery and return to normality. The alternative is going on as we have done in this pretty shitty dragged out situation for months and months and months.

I suspect very few people are travelling abroad on jollies right now.

But do wonder if Starmer has shot himself in the foot a bit but suggesting schools stay open (other than half term). I honestly think people might be ok with a two week complete stay at home order. But if schools were going to stay open it might be close to pointless. My personal opinion.

On a different note clearly the elephant in the room for boris is test and trace. There were an interesting article on bbc earlier (can't link) about how they do it better in other countries. Two main themes - in Korea and Japan they have basically blasted through privacy laws which you couldn't do here. But in Germany it's all been about general faith and trust in the government and each other to do the right thing. Here I think a lot of us trust our friends and families to do the right thing but everyone? Doubtful. And very few people I know really trust what the government is doing.

@BigChocFrenzy

"isolation" of returning holidaymakers cannot be effectively enforced due to the numbers

Yes. We need to restrict the borders. No non essential travel.

@MarshaBradyo

Who takes the hit on the holidays planned?

Is it mostly holiday companies, insurance or individuals? The first two will be straining a lot, first might be close to bust in some cases. Or government pick up bill adding to our future woes .

... imo, the individual

Anyone who booked a holiday since late March should have been aware they were gambling it would go ahead
They have spent that money anyway, so it's not a financial loss - they wouldn't have it either if they'd had the holiday

Would a strict two or three week lockdown even with closed borders be sufficient for a return to something close to normality though? I can see the value of it as a way to get a grip of things but I'm not convinced it would do much more than that. I suspect we'd be back here in 6 weeks unless they can get a proper grip on T&T which seems unlikely!

It's will have a lot of kick back in the south if there is a national lockdown. You only have to look at the graphs presented. Yes numbers are going up in the south but it's not the situation that is being experienced in the north.

Not just my opinion here.... this is the opinion of everyone I hear.

Give the south more restrictions if u like, like tier 2. But a total lockdown? No

BigChoc I agree re individual

The biggest problem with short lockdown is paying for it. Every business affected would need the money unless we undo a lot of the care (grants / furlough etc) over last 8 months.

Plus it doesn’t do that much.

It took Melbourne two months two drastically reduced cases with higher restrictions. What’s two to three weeks going to do? A bit then rebound.

@PrayingandHoping
We just tell 'the south' that this time round we'll going to try to shut the door before the horse escapes.

Seriously outside of the media do people really think of whole areas as one homogeneous mass?

I really wish the divisive narrative focusing on different regions would stop. It's the last thing we need when dealing with a virus (that doesn't respect made up by humans boundaries).

We need an united and coherent national approach.

It's will have a lot of kick back in the south if there is a national lockdown

I disagree, there is strong support where I live for short lockdown including schools so that we don't end up like the north. The north is warning us like Italy did in March.

@MarshaBradyo

BigChoc I agree re individual

The biggest problem with short lockdown is paying for it. Every business affected would need the money unless we undo a lot of the care (grants / furlough etc) over last 8 months.

As the Serco/Deloitte/Dido sagas show, the money is clearly there when the government wants to spend it.

We just need to stop wasting it on rubbish and instead direct it where it's actually needed. Losing the defeatist we can't we can't we can't (unless it's Serco/Dido etc) attitude helps too.

I must admit I think people are on different pages as to what happens with lock down.
For me I see it as a short term solution to a problem that will get worse over the next 5 months until spring.
I think we will have to keep locking down short bursts until spring. Buying us time, keeping NHS sane...

Until that break through. I'm sure a break through will come we just have to bide our time.

@Waveifyouknowme

It's will have a lot of kick back in the south if there is a national lockdown

I disagree, there is strong support where I live for short lockdown including schools so that we don't end up like the north. The north is warning us like Italy did in March.

Wave does that include expectation of extra funding?

Because a lot of it comes down to how much would be reimbursed. A sticking point for tier 3 atm

That's why I thought 3 weeks would be necessary
2 weeks might just bring a brief reduction before cases roar away again

• but it depends how brief !

I don't necessarily agree that there wouldn't be public compliance for what would actually be a first proper lockdown. The first one wasn't a true lockdown. Lots of not really essential shops and services remained open - and the biggie was keeping the borders completely unrestricted with no proper quarantine. No lockdown will produce sustainably long-term results under those circumstances

I don't know how many times I have to explain this on here but there was no need for quarantine because we were locked down anyway and the whole world was in some form of lockdown, some stricter than we were . About 90% of flights weren't operating - the risks were minimal.

As for some shops being open that didn't need to be, which do you mean? I thought it was harsh for garden centres to be closed. I am not sure what other shops were open that shouldn't have been - other than off licences perhaps but in my town they tend to be small grocery shops.

Spain had a stricter lockdown than we did. Much good it did them.

Shitfuckoh, it does feel as if the virus is on our heels doesn't it.

I can't fathom why they are forcing dc in school.

I don't see why parents can't keep them at home if they want.

I'm thinking like in March... Now youngest is off... I may keep older in till Friday... Then keep her off with d and v or something... Until half term.

Dh is working at home that leaves me. I'm in high risk area.

@SheepandCow I meant the regions that are experiencing less issues which includes east of England (this has nothing to do with the historic north south divide).

We split up areas in analysis for a reason.... it may seem harsh but if shoe was on the other foot "the north" would be saying the same thing right now....

I have family in the north west so this does effect me. Yes I live in the south east but actually we as a family would prefer harsher measures in their area now, get the numbers down so we can see them at Christmas (wishful thinking at the moment I expect)

I am very pro working by area

Sheep yes I know you say that but how far do you want to keeping pushing that U.K. dot. Money isn’t endless. So unless you have a plan to get Serco / Deloitte money back it’s pie in the sky. It gets too far fetched and I’d rather keep conversation closer to what’s happening

@MarshaBradyo

Plus it doesn’t do that much.

It took Melbourne two months two drastically reduced cases with higher restrictions. What’s two to three weeks going to do? A bit then rebound.

In the end, better two months than nearly two years. We've done eight - nine months of this dragged out nothing's alright shit. Australia is instead getting on with containing it. They'll be much closer to normal (and in better economic health) by Christmas than us. We go on as we are, we'll be like this in another eight to nine months. It won't get better until we do something about it. In fact, it will only get worse (I'm talking economically). Unless you're a billionaire.

I’m from the north (Merseyside.) living in the south for a v long time. Another lockdown would cause massive economic damage up there especially to lower income families. But then another semi lockdown situation without proper financial support is now causing massive economic damage. People are absolutely going to ignore restrictions and will continue to work illegally to feed their families and pay rent or mortgage if they are not supported to isolate. Also schools- many schools are asking small groups within year groups bubbles to isolate as opposed to entire year groups now. Along with allowing siblings of isolating year groups and bubbles to attend school. Which seems like madness. The only sensible way I can see out of this right now is lockdown but with proper funding all around for all concerned including the masses who fell through the gaps last time. If people can be financially supported they can then make the choice - after all it is a choice- to adhere to the rules and survive.

Regional chart by specimen date (from COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats)

Cases today:

North West: 4510
Yorkshire and The Humber: 2230
East Midlands: 1541
London: 1441
West Midlands: 1086
North East: 1045
South East: 920
South West: 764
East of England: 657

Cases yesterday:

North West: 3981
Yorkshire and The Humber: 1953
East Midlands: 1340
North East: 1150
West Midlands: 938
London: 801
South East: 610
South West: 386
East of England: 381

Saw this posted earlier
Lancashire still arguing about tier 3...
https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/lancashire-sets-out-funding-demands-19099464.amp?twitterimpression=true

@Autumngoldleaf

Shitfuckoh, it does feel as if the virus is on our heels doesn't it.

I can't fathom why they are forcing dc in school.

I don't see why parents can't keep them at home if they want.

I'm thinking like in March... Now youngest is off... I may keep older in till Friday... Then keep her off with d and v or something... Until half term.

Dh is working at home that leaves me. I'm in high risk area.

@Autumngoldleaf It's been recorded that my DC is home learning until the end of isolation period & to be honest, his teacher this year is absolutely fantastic. But the school aren't budging on the fact that it's ''unauthorised absence'' - despite having no option but to keep him home. I can't leave a 3 year old home alone and the 3 year old can't come with us because he has to isolate.

We're in the NE.