Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Links added to OP:
NHS England Daily deaths

Request to posters giving a link:
. Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
. Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Cheers

thanks

Because people need something to cheer them up - Oxford vaccine looking good

riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/miscellaneous/covid-19/five-thousand-brazilians-have-been-administered-oxford-vaccine-with-no-severe-side-effects/

What is even more indefensible, is that normal testing, ie: the thousands of every day testing of bloods, etc is not done that way. Each and every test is a single data file, which is transferred digitally and directly by a very clever system, which sends the data direct to your consultant, and your doctor automatically. No consolidation of data, no middle man.

Deloitte's have a lot to answer for. I suspect they were given the contract in a hurry (what's new), and as they are not specialists in NHS data handling, bunged something together with PHE which is not up to the job.

I mainly lurk on these threads but thank you, they're really helpful.

Thank you @alreadytaken ! Good news! 🤞

From last thread, I think knowing what went wrong does matter. It let's us know exactly the competence if the people running the data. There is a big difference between something that could be reasonably foreseen and a freak occurrence.

@Baaaahhhhh

What is even more indefensible, is that normal testing, ie: the thousands of every day testing of bloods, etc is not done that way. Each and every test is a single data file, which is transferred digitally and directly by a very clever system, which sends the data direct to your consultant, and your doctor automatically. No consolidation of data, no middle man.

Deloitte's have a lot to answer for. I suspect they were given the contract in a hurry (what's new), and as they are not specialists in NHS data handling, bunged something together with PHE which is not up to the job.

That actually is only half true. I've worked on UK GP system (running on DOS if that means anything to anyone in the 21st century :)) and there is a reporting/aggregation level. The key difference is the timeliness of data of course.

I'll refrain from too much software talk from now on (well, try anyway)

Just looking at when it apparently broke, I'm wondering if there's a limit on 10000 cases/day and they meant to change it long before they reached that point and forgot.

Concerning (?) from Kate Bingham, head of the government’s UK vaccine taskforce

"Ms Bingham said vaccination policy would be aimed at those “most at risk” and noted that vaccinating healthy people, who are much less likely to have severe outcomes from Covid-19, “could cause them some freak harm”, potentially tipping the scales in terms of the risk-benefit analysis."

www.ft.com/content/d2e00128-7889-4d5d-84a3-43e51355a751
(paywall)

I thought this was the point of many months of trials to avoid this. I'm either confused or lack some knowledge piece.

697 new cases in Scotland, 8 more in hospital (taking it to 218), no increase in ICU and deaths.

More localised data being added to the dashboard too, which is good.

WRT local leaders having accurate info, Liverpool appears to cast doubt on that. Liverpool’s mayor Joe Anderson tweeted Saturday lunchtime that Liverpool was at 322/100,000.

Graph from the echo with the updated tests show it should have been over 400/100,000 and going up not levelling off

well I didnt say every area was getting local data, just that I suspected some were.

Stockholm are looking at waste water and it isnt looking good for them. www.dn.se/sthlm/avloppsvattnet-visar-att-coronaviruset-okar-kraftigt-i-stockholm/

as for vaccination - we wont know about the 1 in a million (or 1 in 500,00) side effects until there are much bigger trials. For the vulnerable 1 in a million risks are worth taking, for children who are not clinically vulnerable maybe not.

Thankyou for these threads :)

@TheSunIsStillShining
There is another thread on this - general view seems to be that she was slightly misunderstood but agree it’s worrying

WG press conference fairly reassuring just now with Vaughan Gething, Health minister. Evidently there is an effective collaborative approach between Govt and LAs in Wales. Also it is LA staff (and shoe leather) involved in T&T.
Local lockdowns in Caerphilly and Newport bringing case numbers down but not yet to levels where restrictions will be lifted.
Comments re schools also reassuring, 8/10 Welsh schools have had no recorded cases.

Thanks!

@Frazzled2207
I don't have access to behind paywall and didn't bother yet looking it up elsewhere. But good? to hear that it's the journalists that are confused primarily :)

Interview with Prof Sarah Gilbert in The Biologist magazine this month re the Oxford vaccine.
(Sorry cannot link as am RSB Member and get magazine as hard copy).
Explains why they have been able to get quickly to this point in time in terms of development and trials. Fact based and reassuring.

My last comment (hopefully) on the software
It would have been much better if the clown had not opened his mouth.
"What happened here was that some of the data got truncated and it was lost."
well, how did you find it then?
does he even know what truncated means? Def: "In mathematics and computer science, truncation is limiting the number of digits right of the decimal point."

Asked how many people might not have had a prompt warning, he replied:
"I can’t give you those figures. ..."
I can: 16k. all the lost cases most probably. It wasn't that hard to figure out.

I am sorry for the slight rant, but this is not "shambles" or incompetency. This is now much more than that and the fact that no attorneys/lawyers/judges/MPs are calling this out makes me sick. every frekking piece of this gov and surroundings are complicit idiots who forgot the meaning of being a civil servant and serving the community/country/people.

@blodynmawr

Interview with Prof Sarah Gilbert in The Biologist magazine this month re the Oxford vaccine. (Sorry cannot link as am RSB Member and get magazine as hard copy). Explains why they have been able to get quickly to this point in time in terms of development and trials. Fact based and reassuring.

Could you take a photo and post it? It's behind a paywall as well.

I've watched/read everything I could find that has come from Sarah Gilbert directly and I think she has come across as honest, realistic and sensible throughout. I have great faith that the Oxford vaccine is genuinely being put through its paces and whatever the outcome is we will be able to rely on it.

I can