Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Wow these move fast. Thanks.

Reastie - not only that but the first contact is the “you have covid” text message with no attempt to get contacts at that stage

Thank you very informative.

@Jano69

Place marking, this thread is more valuable than government briefings.

Hear hear!

That Trafford shiny apps site is great, thanks.

On another thread someone accidentally types "stories", which I now use for the party in power. Strange how a fault apparently "inherited" from PHE shows up only in October.

The south west has, after the initial outbreak in Torbay and apart from the outbreak in Swindon, always had a lower rate of infection than most of the country. The east of England has been low for an extended period too. If they are rising now how much of it is down to students in Bath, Bristol, Bournemouth, Exeter, Plymouth?

A new study. Interesting, highlighting that kids are great at spreading.
I guess if it doesn't say pre-print it's been vetted? Anyone know?

And I like this part at the end:
"Data and materials availability: De-identified data and code for replication of the analyses is available from the corresponding author’s GitHub page"

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672

Place marking

This is extracted from a local newspaper, the journalist was most probably one of the lost cases:
“ You’re supposed to receive a call from a contact tracer within a day or two of a positive test, but until 7pm last evening – almost a full week since I was texted my result – I had heard nothing.”

And when he was finally contacted he had three separate call handlers all trying to contact him. Total shambles

altrincham.todaynews.co.uk/2020/10/05/news/coronavirus/my-week-with-covid-and-a-glimpse-into-our-farcical-test-and-trace-system/?fbclid=IwAR3_mWpM1xqp5Nc8DnVfJuXxaZAj2O83PxxMOm-NnTFsEmh98gLHsEVhGZE

@TheSunIsStillShining

A new study. Interesting, highlighting that kids are great at spreading. I guess if it doesn't say pre-print it's been vetted? Anyone know?

And I like this part at the end:
"Data and materials availability: De-identified data and code for replication of the analyses is available from the corresponding author’s GitHub page"

The way I read that is that the under 14s may be good at spreading it amongst themselves, but not particularly to other age groups.

It's also interesting in its support of the superspreader idea -70% of people appeared not to have infected anyone, with 5% of cases responsible for 80% of subsequent infections.

It's worth noting that this study has been the subject (unsurprisingly) of quite a lot of analysis on Twitter, with some criticism about the identification of index vs subsequent cases (as in, the infected close contacts of the young are likely to be exposed to the same sources of infection (as siblings, or at school) so it's very hard to identify who actually infected who).

It does suggest that households are a major factor in infection spread. Which i think has never really been disputed?

During the time of the Indian study schools were closed, so they werent picking up infections there.

Worrying about being in an enclosed vehicle for 6h though that seemed very high

@Timeforanotherusername

It does suggest that households are a major factor in infection spread. Which i think has never really been disputed?

As length of time near someone seems to be a major factor it would be surprising if it wasn't.

Of people I have most contact it's probably:

1. DS because he'll still sit on my knee and next to me in the car, I'll be next to him if he needs help with homework, or reading a story etc.
2. Dh obviously.
3. DD because she'll be in the car with me, at meals with me and occasionally in a teenage way with me want to sit and discuss something.

1. Work colleagues. Mostly we keep face masks on and keep 2m away. So even if I'm in the same room as them the risk will be lower. But at present we're sparcely enough in (still on furlough) then it's unusual to have 5 hours with the same person in the room over a week.
2. People in shops/outside. I try to keep 2m away, will wear a facemask, and is literally just walking past/paying etc.

There would be a huge gap in contact between home and work, so not surprising home would be a major factor.

already its also a very different environment than here. Which does need to be considered too.

@alreadytaken

During the time of the Indian study schools were closed, so they werent picking up infections there.

Yes, I now see that - thanks.

Ops wrong thread.

Haha! I follow this thread and was confused. Which thread is about bad jeans as I think it’d be relevant to me. Thanks!

@NeurotrashWarrior

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

I'm sorry, I know this was posted on the wrong thread but it made me because of it - which is a surprise!

Placeholding

Re the test & trace shambles, is it worth signing this:

weownit.org.uk/save-lives-scrap-serco-now

As always, thank you for the ongoing informative threads & it's nice to see @PatriciaHolm back.

Numerous studies now showing similar infection and transmission by children, see summary by Zoe Hyde on Twitter
twitter.com/drzoehyde/status/1312392762445066243?s=21

@PatriciaHolm

With ref. to our conversation last night *@BigChocFrenzy* - apparently the Irish Cabinet are set to reject the recommendation from their equivalent of the CMO to move to Level 5 (which would have been aggressive given most of the country is on Level 2, with some on Level 3). Apparently they are going to suggest a Country wide move to Level 3.

..... Thanks, Patricia Sounds sensible Level 5 did sound over the top for Ireland's cases & deaths