Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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@coffeeabdteav

The percentages add up to approx 64 percent on that Norhern MPs slide.

So the remaining percentage would be work places and education?

No - the percentages aren't exclusive, as many people will have done more than one of those things in the past few days - shopped, and eaten out, and gone to the pub.

In secondary they sent a whole class and more recently where i live.
It depends upon the contacts.

The PHE report just states 352 outbreaks in 'educational settings' . Did it used to break those down or was that a different report?

It certainly shows the biggest rise in the 10 - 19 age group.

Actually - if they are doing it by "% of exposures" (as the PHE graph does) then they would be additional, sorry. I leapt to the conclusion it was % of cases, which may not be correct.

If the numbers next to the % are the raw numbers though, it's from a tiny sample.

@Piggywaspushed

The PHE report just states 352 outbreaks in 'educational settings' . Did it used to break those down or was that a different report?

It certainly shows the biggest rise in the 10 - 19 age group.

P18 shows it by types of setting. Although again that is number of outbreaks, not cases.

Sorry - my comment re primary vs secondary was taken from another thread on school outbreaks which I will try to find and link to!

Sorry if I wasn't clear patricia . I meant did it not used to say primary school/ secondary and HE somewhere?

*The percentages add up to approx 64 percent on that Norhern MPs slide.

So the remaining percentage would be work places and education?*

We don't know what that slide source of data is, I previously assumed it to be the ARI data, but I'm now not so sure (it would explain very low household etc. despite being the overwhelming majority of cases) and the missing education and care homes (as a resident) would explain the missing stats.

But with the week 41 report out, it may not tally up, even if it's a week later data, as they are still showing lower pubs etc. for that week. But it could be. The real point is this data should be published and explained not in half a screen shot from a zoom call, it's shit.

However the week 40 ARI numbers are better I think (@Piggywaspushed's pdf), care home outbreaks not growing, and you would hope all of those are being caught and investigated as an ARI.

@Piggywaspushed

Sorry if I wasn't clear patricia . I meant did it not used to say primary school/ secondary and HE somewhere?

Yes - it does - page Page 18 shows that!

@BigChocFrenzy

If for some reason it became known next year that vaccines would not be available for years, then I suspect the strategy would indeed become herd immunity, not years of SD & local lockdowns

How would herd immunity be established?

I think I am looking a t a different thing from you then as my page 18 is different! thank you!

Patricia why is the higher education settings so low with all of the university outbreaks?

In fact patricia isn't that form another week? We are now week 41?

Interestingly, the PHE report also shows that whilst incidence/100,000 in the 10-19 age group is up markedly, percentage positivity for community testing is much less so; it's actually quite flat in the 10-19 Males Pillar 2, and up a bit for Females.

Which suggests that much of the growth in actual numbers is down to increased testing of that age group (makes sense) rather than massive growth in infection (though of course it's only measuring up to the end of week 39,which I think will be sept 27)

@Piggywaspushed

In fact patricia isn't that form another week? We are now week 41?

This is the latest report, which covers week 39, which is to Sept 27 - so won't have the last 10 days carnage …..!

Because there are significantly more outbreaks in schools than in universities but a) the media isn't covering them and b) they are, of course, smaller numbers involved at each separate setting.

No, we got this today

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925324/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_W41_FINAL.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1KTWLRE8245JLZTstdXYJuKouto7_-vDsaaSJ1PzI1cqjfFecQ5BZQo18

Referring back to the point that people tested are more likely to be infected than the general public,

an indicator of this is the much higher % positivity in pillar 2 (general public) than in pillar 1 (regular testing NHS & care staff),
males nearly 9% vs 2%

in the new PHE surveillance report for 28 Sept - 4 Oct

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/925324/WeeklyyFluanddCOVID-19reportt_W41FINAL.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1KTWLRE8245JLZTstdXYJuKouto77_-vDsaaSJ1PzI1cqjfFecQ5BZQo18

The bar chart shows the number of outbreaks not the number of infections
In manchester, there have been around 1,200 infections from 1 university, so that appears as a single outbreak on a chart.
Whereas there might be 50 primary schools who account for a total of 100 cases (the latter sentence is a guesstimate) so that appears as 50 outbreaks on the chart

It would be far more useful if the age groups correlated with schooling - so age 5-10, 11-17, 18-21 etc as I suspect a massive proportion of the 10-19 group will be first year university students

[quote Piggywaspushed]No, we got this today

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925324/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_W41_FINAL.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1KTWLRE8245JLZTstdXYJuKouto7_-vDsaaSJ1PzI1cqjfFecQ5BZQo18[/quote]
snap ;-) sorry, I was a bit behind!

"How would herd immunity be established?"

this is entirely theoretical, because the consequences in a densely populated country are too grim:

By giving up SD and accepting tens of thousands of deaths in the UK, especially when the health servcies get overwhelmed
Immunity would wear off after a year or two, rinse and repeat
Babies would be born too, so adding more small people who are not immune

Hence I just don't believe there is much danger there won't be a vaccine next year - vast global resources are going into avoiding that scenario

The Chinese and Russina ones are already being used, so I don't see why Western vaccines won't be ready early next year

Looking at cases by age groups ... is unhelpful to distinguish between school kids & uni students,
as age groups are 10-19 and 20-29

Age 10-19 has the highest infections, but how many are 18-19 ?
Age 20-29 are the next highest, but how many are 20-21/22 ?

Those age groupings - how to keep people on SM debating.

Could be so much more useful

@ceeveebee

It would be far more useful if the age groups correlated with schooling - so age 5-10, 11-17, 18-21 etc as I suspect a massive proportion of the 10-19 group will be first year university students

Yes, I wonder why they wouldn't do that...