Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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Matt Hancock in the commons just stated that half of those missed cases contacts have now been tracked and traced....

He also stated that a clearer restrictions guidance would be announced in the upcoming days.... so that 3 tier system posted in the last thread? Or something of that nature? We shall see

@EducatingArti the 340K estimate given upthread was for the number of people with it at any one time. So, maybe spread that over the c14 days of infectiousness takes it down to about 24.3K a day.

But I don't really know what am talking about, others will!

Matt Hancock has told the Commons that they knew about this fault in July, and are working on a new system to address the problem. It was a legacy system from PHE?

The Rt Hon Stella Creasy's question (by video link) and subsequent reactions to MH's reply are worth watching if you need a laugh...

@Shitfuckoh

So do we think 12,594 is our new 'average' daily figure? That's obviously lower than yesterday but it's not far off the figures the day before. I'm still quite shocked that we've reached this point so quickly. Yet after the last 2 days of talk regarding high numbers & yesterday being much higher, it doesn't seem to be alarming anyone. Deaths for me are showing as 19.

According to @rp131 on Twitter, some 1,413 of today's cases (13%) in England are from specimen dates 8 or more days ago; normally it's about 30.

So yes there is definitely a level of backdating going on, albeit much smaller than the last couple of days.

@PrayingandHoping

Matt Hancock in the commons just stated that half of those missed cases contacts have now been tracked and traced....

He also stated that a clearer restrictions guidance would be announced in the upcoming days.... so that 3 tier system posted in the last thread? Or something of that nature? We shall see

I wonder if that means they are prioritising tracing cases up to a week old, where there is little point now, over the newest cases where it will make the biggest difference - just so they can say they have been traced.

Groundless cynicism maybe not in the spirit of the thread, but still...

@PrayingandHoping

Matt Hancock in the commons just stated that half of those missed cases contacts have now been tracked and traced....

He also stated that a clearer restrictions guidance would be announced in the upcoming days.... so that 3 tier system posted in the last thread? Or something of that nature? We shall see

Assume my DD is one of those traced in hindsight. A friend with whom she'd had close contact last Monday tested positive on Thursday. DD got text today to tell her to isolate for 14 days from... 28th September.

Luckily, friend had already told her and she was doing the right thing of her own accord. Otherwise, she might merrily have been spreading the virus for a whole week.

With ref. to our conversation last night @BigChocFrenzy - apparently the Irish Cabinet are set to reject the recommendation from their equivalent of the CMO to move to Level 5 (which would have been aggressive given most of the country is on Level 2, with some on Level 3). Apparently they are going to suggest a Country wide move to Level 3.

I didn't think MH said half of the contacts had been traced, but rather that half of the 15,800 odd stray cases had now been re-contacted so as to provide a list of their contacts.

@Augustbreeze the communication is just shocking and that leads people to interpret the rules incorrectly.

My DD's bubble is closed at the moment. We received a letter from the school stating DD must stay at home. That's all we've had. We haven't received anything from any public health authority advising that this is the case and offering FAQs. As a consequence several parents have had their (symptomless) children tested and declared isolation to be over when they have come back negative.

We need some more darker colours to differentiate just how horrendous it is in different parts of Merseyside now.

We are in a league of our own compared to the rest of the country it seems, apart from maybe Manchester. If they are going to launch the traffic light system I assume we’re heading straight to red

Absolutely astonished that there is no trace of apology or humility in matt Hancock’s statement. I actually knew the weasel when I was a teenager

Not sure what happened to the photo

So what is the estimate for the daily number of cases at the April peak?

Depends on the model, it's a lot of guesswork but 100,000 per day was thought to be the best guess for peak infections, although there are huge error bars.

Another related thing is that it seems likely that something went very wrong with protecting care homes as a very high percentage of care homes had outbreaks compared to the implied community transfer that 100k per day provides.

@Frazzled2207
You knew him and you're still surprised he didn't apologise?

@Witchend
I knew him at sixth form so more than 20 years ago. Part of my Friday night pub crowd. We never talked politics but tbh he was a nice chap as far as I could tell.

Different colours are needed; 296 in this area and only 76 next door one way, 156 the other.

Gateshead showing uni halls? But only 48. (Probably the ones right above a Tesco)

I keep hearing (Boris again on Sky news) that cases are local this time whereas last time it was nationwide. I'm sorry if I've missed this but has this been discussed do you agree? Living, working and having three lots of family in different exceptionally low areas I would disagree that it was nationwide in March. In fact with growing ICU rates in my area its now less safe than it was in March full lockdown.

I would very much like to see today’s version of the bar charts by day of sample that we were all looking at yesterday.

We’re they created by Richard on Twitter?

I would disagree that it was nationwide in March

There were deaths everywhere in March, so it was nationwide, however I think there's reasonably good evidence that it was significantly more common in some areas then - London at least double the rate of anywhere else and some parts of London likely higher again.

It also seems to strongly point that the social distancing measures in low population density areas are sufficient to keep community spread very low, so there are certainly places in the country now with very low levels.

I'd say the evidence broadly supports the view that cases are currently unevenly distributed across the country in a way that the serology evidence did not suggest previously -
www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports/sero-surveillance-of-covid-19
Which shows all the regions with similar levels of community exposure, whereas now, the East and The South West of England are looking considerably lower.

English Regions, Scotland, Wales, NI & RoI #covid19 cases per 100,000 residents reported in the last 7 days

England increased from 102.0 cases per 100k yesterday to 115.2 today
mobile.twitter.com/avds/status/1313165523459416072

England: North West, North East, Yorkshire and the Humber are highest, East, South West, South East lowest.

@everythingthelighttouches twitter.com/rp131/status/1313140748758462465?s=21 bar charts are here for analysis of sample date

There were a significant amount of deaths in our local hospital in March.

And lots of chatter locally about people suspecting they had the virus.

That is not the case yet - and we have had very few deaths over the last month.

Cases are rising though but still light blue on map. Just more areas blue.

Place marking, this thread is more valuable than government briefings.

My local council updates the 7 day rates for every English borough every day if anyone finds this useful
trafforddatalab.shinyapps.io/covid-19/

Matt Hancock in the commons just stated that half of those missed cases contacts have now been tracked and traced....

I think he said 51% had been contacted at least twice by T&T. This is different to having been tracked and traced. I have a friend who works for T&T. She said a contact counts as an email or leaving a telephone message. It doesn’t mean they have got in contact and got all their contacts to then trace. This really worries me.