Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@Frazzled2207

10 hospital deaths in england which is on the low side. Zero in Wales and Scotland.

Scotland report later I believe so 1 has been added from yesterday's reporting. Last 4 Mondays hospital deaths reported:

14/9 - 1
21/9 - 10
28/9 - 11
5/10 - 11

So looks nice and stable, however, Tuesdays tell a different story:

15/9 - 16
22/9 - 30
29/9 - 47

Let's hope tomorrow's is lower. Also quite a dramatic increase in all setting deaths over the last couple of weeks:

15/9 - 27
22/9 - 37
29/9 - 71

TheSun. I thought so. So there is an awful lot more children/teenagers with it than assumed.

Sorry, but I won't apply. Got burned by working in a gov agency. (i was an idiot. kicked up a fuss about illegal surveillance. Should have known not to do that.... final kick in the teeth to move country.) So never again.

The no vaccination for under 18s is really bugging me though - there is still ok less than adults but still some children who remain on the CEV list.
Also depending on the vaccine does anyone know if it will be a live vaccine ?
There will be a lot of vulnerable who can’t have the vaccination relying on herd immunity in the same aspect as other vaccinations ?

My big problem with the let the teens get it mentality, that we have no data (very obviously) on how/if/to what extent long covid might be an issue for them.

This looks interesting, but haven't had time to read it yet:
institute.global/sites/default/files/articles/Long-Covid-Reviewing-the-Science-and-Assessing-the-Risk.pdf

@Someonetakemebackto91 yep me too... but that's because I have a baby on that list who was originally shielded but now just outside the new shielding category.

But then.... they haven't done the trials for that age range yet. I completely get behind that it has to be trialled and considered safe.

Ho hum. Perhaps more patience

@EducatingArti
The covid symptom study /zoe app estimates that it has flattened out recently at 15,000 per day. I'm not sure how accurate it is though. I would have thought more than that.

@Frazzled2207

Zoe app estimates on my phone are currently 20641 new cases. It's not been rising fast, but slowly climbing.

[quote Frazzled2207]@EducatingArti
The covid symptom study /zoe app estimates that it has flattened out recently at 15,000 per day. I'm not sure how accurate it is though. I would have thought more than that.[/quote]

I find it hard to believe that our testing centres are picking up 70+% of cases. But I'd be very happy to be wrong!

Thanks Frazzled!

[quote Witchend]@Frazzled2207

Zoe app estimates on my phone are currently 20641 new cases. It's not been rising fast, but slowly climbing.[/quote]

Ah! Cross post That figure looks more believable.

And Witchend

The ZOE app only picks up community cases, so no care homes/ hospital inpatients etc which could explain the numbers.

I guess up to 10x as many if 1/10 symptomatic. But that would be younger people.
I think one study says 1/200 currently infected which would be 340k.
May not seem that far fetched when considering all the clusters theyve found.
If we assume that it is spreading in schools and secondaries have 1k students.

@cathyandclare

The ZOE app only picks up community cases, so no care homes/ hospital inpatients etc which could explain the numbers.

.... Yes, it's important to remember that Zoe is an unrepresentative self-selecting although very large sample, with very few of some more vulnerable groups, such as the age group 75+ or the most deprived quintile (who mostly can't risk time off work to isolate)

@Witchend
fair point I was referring to a tweet I saw earlier which was referring to numbers early last week I think.

.

(May I sneak this in here? It's sort of data...?)

So is the testing spreadsheet ‘fixed’ now and that error presumably won’t happen again?

Also, was there a reason given for Saturday’s figures being delayed?

The continuing sewage surveillance program in Sweden gives a good guide to trends - infections currently rising very fast there - even before people develop symptoms

Like Mrex, I have serious sewage envy

Neurotrash I try not to think of BJ / Hancock tiny parts 🤮

@Redlocks28

So is the testing spreadsheet ‘fixed’ now and that error presumably won’t happen again?

Also, was there a reason given for Saturday’s figures being delayed?

@Redlocks28 I believe the lost tests issue was found very early on Saturday morning so both saturday and sunday numbers were delayed. My guess is they got a lot of them on for saturday and then the rest followed on Sunday. It's not clear if the problem has been fully rectified though I hope so. Hoping for a figure under 10000 today. In normal times they have been made available about 4pm.

I believe the lost tests issue was found very early on Saturday morning

Oh to have been a fly on that wall...

@NeurotrashWarrior

I believe the lost tests issue was found very early on Saturday morning

Oh to have been a fly on that wall...

Could u imagine?? 🤦🏼‍♀️🤣

Love the spreadsheet @NeurotrashWarrior !