Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

they are updating the data now so we'll have it soon
if it's coming at the normal time then that's good news I hope

Radio just said 12.5k new cases.

12594 today

UK today

Cases 12,594
Deaths 33

Wow, a new thread already!!

So what is the estimate for the daily number of cases at the April peak?

Is that number including the extra cases still?

England
Total hospitalised = 2,593

@EducatingArti

So what is the estimate for the daily number of cases at the April peak?

... link in OP to graph with several models, estimating 100-200k cases at peak

Just to go back tot he no vaccines for under 18s. I m very bothered by this as a teacher how will probably be bottom of priority pile for any vaccine , too. Are we really OK with parents of under 18s and the teachers being left open to constant possibility of infection?

Anecdata, but was speaking today to a masters educated, mum friend, lives near Bolton and recognises the seriousness of Covid.

She didn't know whole household had to isolate if one person has symptoms.

She didn't know an alteration in taste was as valid a reason to test as loss of taste.

We desperately need either much better messaging on this, or easier and instant access to individual health advice. Maybe the "influencers" could help....

Allocation of mislaid 15,841 additional positives on the day they should have been reported.
Chart from UK COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats:
(note: lower days are Sun-Mon)

So do we think 12,594 is our new 'average' daily figure?
That's obviously lower than yesterday but it's not far off the figures the day before.
I'm still quite shocked that we've reached this point so quickly. Yet after the last 2 days of talk regarding high numbers & yesterday being much higher, it doesn't seem to be alarming anyone.
Deaths for me are showing as 19.

@Augustbreeze
I have a friend like that too. She said that if one person in her household gets a positive she thinks the rest of the household gets tested too and then carries on as normal as long as they get a negative

@Piggywaspushed
Of course we’re not. I hope the teaching unions kick off big time if this turns out to be the case.

This is the wording on the govt's data site:

"An issue was identified overnight on Friday 2 October in the automated process that transfers positive cases data to PHE. It has now been resolved.

The cases by publish date for 3 and 4 October include 15,841 additional cases with specimen dates between 25 September and 2 October — they are therefore artificially high for England and the UK."

I've seen that the Excel spreadsheet was only not big enough because they stored each case record as a column (limited to 16,000) rather than rows (limited to 1 million).

I'm hoping everyone still received their test results on time for the track and trace to kick in and that the impact was limited to this data bungle. My DD was tested on Sat 26th Sept and we got the (negative) result on the 28th.

I struggle to see how tracing can cover 13K cases a day.

So if 100-200k at peak and a possible 350k now, doesn't that mean we are in serious trouble?

I'm amused to read that they're drafting in extra contact tracers to try and catch up - couldn't they just use the ones interviewed by Panorama, who are mainly sitting around watching Netflix with no cases assigned to them?

@EducatingArti

So if 100-200k at peak and a possible 350k now, doesn't that mean we are in serious trouble?

it was 100k + per day at peak and approx 1-3 million in total.

We're not there.

Not yet.

It does not necessarily bother me that I won't get the vaccine.

And my kids will be delighted.

But I would be very angry if teachers and front line staff didn't get it.

Why else have we been locking ourselves away and stopping ourselves getting the virus.

I think this is a very dangerous message to send out.

Essentially why should I try not catch the virus if I am not going yo be vaccinated.

(I am not going to try and catch it but many would)

Are we really OK with parents of under 18s and the teachers being left open to constant possibility of infection?

Apparently so. I agree Piggy it's awful. If older or ECV parents get really sick (including those who are teachers), particularly single parents, who will look after their kids? Social services?

I'm confused!
So what is a sensible estimate per day now?

From reading the press comments, it appears that the positive cases were told their results, but their close contacts were not told.

If R is 1.5 does that mean that there were potentially 1.5 x 15k people wandering around without knowing they were supposed to be self isolating? Although you would hope that the majority of the close contacts would be household members so should be self isolating anyway, or might have been told to self isolate by the app or by the person who tested positive.
The impact of this spreadsheet error goes way beyond a reporting error if that’s the case.

The DfE did make noises about teachers being key workers and in line for vaccinations and priority testing. These things have not come to pass. I am lucky to be in an area where teachers are offered priority (top secret!) testing but very few teachers are.