What will New Zealand do long term?

[Missingsockswheresotheygo]

What do people think will happen in New Zealand long term?

I initially thought they were in the best position but now I'm not so sure.

A vaccine won't eradicate the virus it will only suppress it to manageable levels (I think?)

But with their population having no immunity will it not just wreak havoc the minute they open their borders?

I think they'll vaccinate then live happily ever after. If the vaccine means the virus is no longer killing people then the problem goes away doesnt it?

@porcupineinwaiting Are they planning to keep their borders closed until a vaccine is rolled out?

They will have to become reasonably self sufficient it will be a long time before there is a vaccine good enough to help a country used to zero cases! We will be pleased to see a fifty percent drop in cases but they need something more than that.

Same plan as us in Oz I think. We keep the doors locked until there is a vaccine.

We vaccinate the population and then we open up.

Once Melbourne is under control there are talks of NZ/Oz/Pacific Island travel.

We can also make everything we need as can NZ. Though obviously we like travellers/their money/products from overseas as well.

Don't worry about us dow here. We are fine.

There seems to be doubt that a vaccine will be terribly effective. They’ll have to open up. I live on the iom, we are Covid free, but borders are very strictly controlled. We can’t do that forever.

@EhUp well I dont actually know but I'd assume so, yes.

We have no effective immunity either.

A vaccine will mimic far better immunity than if they'd had the a bout of the virus.

I think they'll wait for that, open up and emerge without the death toll.

Although I don't think that's what a lot of people want to see... They don't want to see it working out for NZ because it means we got it wrong.b they want to see NZ in a bit of a pickle.

Personally I applaud them.

@Woundedadmiral

We have no effective immunity either.

A vaccine will mimic far better immunity than if they'd had the a bout of the virus.

I think they'll wait for that, open up and emerge without the death toll.

Do you have a source for the claim that having had the virus gives 'no effective immunity'?

I don't get how they can possibly keep their borders closed until a vaccine comes, but then they are a totally different country to us in many ways, so maybe they can?

@Woundedadmiral no not at all. At first I was really angry with our government because I wished they'd gone down the NZ route. I remember people saying close the borders, and there was some travel expert on TV saying how we can't do that or we will have a recession. Encouraging people to book cheap Easter breaks. Now look at us.

Then with the first lockdown I thought we'd suppress it so low that there'd be hardly any cases or even get rid of it. Now look.

I'm now not convinced that a vaccine is going to be the huge success we all hope. As in that we will still have a Covid death toll every year, just not as bad.

I wonder about our borders too. I g was r people talking as though there'll be free travel next year but I'm not sure.

This isn't a competition.

There'll be good and bad in what we all do.

There are huge unknowns, like why the death rate in Manaus, Brazil, was so very high; whereas despite overwhelming levels of cases in Kabul, the deaths were so much lower.

@Woundedadmiral spot on.

They could totally keep their borders closed until next April at least (by which time we should know if a vaccine is imminent). We could have/could do the same, we just choose not to.

They will thrive. Healthy population = healthy economy. They will trade & travel with fellow zerocovid nations in pan-Pacific region, which includes China, Thailand, Vietnam etc They will have pick of immigration - high net wealth individuals, highly skilled Workers, creators & innovators from across the world who wish to live in a normally functioning democratic society without onerous restrictions.
Their economy won’t have drag of circulating illness, chronic burden of long term ill-health & high taxation.
Well done them.

@Miljea I didn't say it was a competition.

Well seems like we have a recession anyway, open borders or no. Personally I suspect the economy would be in better shape if we'd suppressed COVID and continued at near normal with no foreign travel.

Will a vaccine really be a silver bullet? The flu vaccine doesn't offer guaranteed protection and flu still kills thousands of people every year. We will have no idea how effectively a covid vaccine will work- or even what the uptake will be for it. From what I've learnt, vaccinations provide immunity but you have to have a relatively strong immune system for it to work. So, the vulnerable will have to rely on the younger population being vaccinated to provide the immunity to them as the vaccinations will not be so effective for them. Makes community (herd) immunity sound like a better option, doesn't it?

That's what I mean. The travel expert was saying we'd have a recession if we closed the borders. But we will anyway. Recession + huge death toll + lockdown possibly multiple lockdowns, businesses destroyed. So what was the point?

Vaccinate and open borders

Overall probably lower economic hit than us

And there’s no long term immunity because it’s a coronavirus. There are already proven cases of reinfection, some of which have resulted in more severe illness on second go. And the more we let the virus spread, the more likely we will see mutations that will put the virus out of the range of what antibodies we have - with consequences for vaccine development. Our increased exposure & death have brought us v limited protection & at what cost?
Zero COVID is by far the smartest, cheapest & most humane response.

@mac12

They will thrive. Healthy population = healthy economy. They will trade & travel with fellow zerocovid nations in pan-Pacific region, which includes China, Thailand, Vietnam etc They will have pick of immigration - high net wealth individuals, highly skilled Workers, creators & innovators from across the world who wish to live in a normally functioning democratic society without onerous restrictions. Their economy won’t have drag of circulating illness, chronic burden of long term ill-health & high taxation. Well done them.

I disagree. With closed borders they will become more and more isolated and insular. Pan Pacific trade with China, really?

@Woundedadmiral

Although I don't think that's what a lot of people want to see... They don't want to see it working out for NZ because it means we got it wrong.b they want to see NZ in a bit of a pickle.

Personally I applaud them.

This

@AllAussieAdventures said it best.

@AriettyHomily - China is already one of NZ's top trading partners.

After a vaccine is created, then covid will be like flu.

Before all this started, all us vulnerable people knew we were vulnerable, to colds, to flu, to pneumonia etc. We took precautions, and relied on a certain amount of herd immunity.

Covid will be no different.

It's not all about a vaccine. New treatments are emerging all the time - once we reach the stage where Covid can be reasonably easily and effectively treated, restrictions can be reduced. If it gets to the stage where it's no more likely to lead to hospitalisations and deaths than the flu is, we can basically go back to normal.

In all likelihood they’re going to have a normal Christmas and festive people while we have the miserable rule of six, schools in disarray and hospitality under threat.