What will New Zealand do long term?

[Missingsockswheresotheygo]

What do people think will happen in New Zealand long term?

I initially thought they were in the best position but now I'm not so sure.

A vaccine won't eradicate the virus it will only suppress it to manageable levels (I think?)

But with their population having no immunity will it not just wreak havoc the minute they open their borders?

Can I just be devil's advocate and ask what happens in NZ and Australia if no effective vaccine is ever developed? Then what?

There pretty much already is a vaccine. China has said they're ready with theirs.
And if you don't fancy the Chinese vaccine, the others are all showing successful results in their late stage trials.
It's almost certainly just a matter of when rather than if.

There's also work progressing well on treatments.

It's going to happen - but just suppose you were right. To be honest so what? They can manage just fine without us. Lots of other countries have taken effective measures to contain Covid. New Zealand would only need to keep out infected places like the UK. They'll survive without us.

I keep reading NZ don’t need us. But I presume they’d quite like a vaccine if we make one.

@Theradioison

Can I just be devil's advocate and ask what happens in NZ and Australia if no effective vaccine is ever developed? Then what?

If the rest if the world is doing ok but Aus/NZ borders remain closed? Some young people will begin to seek to leave again. Many immigrants will need to leave if they want regular access to family. Border closure can't be a permanent solution due to the large immigrant population, separated from family, as well as all the Kiwis separted from family (those with family abroad...and those living abroad).

Jacinda Ardern will take this election easily, but if we're still having this conversation in 3 years then she's in big trouble for a 3rd term.

Emigrating and still being able to visit family is a very recent luxury. In not too distant memory people emigrated and that was it.
And, many people still have to. A close schoolfriend came here as a a refugee. Her family had to leave their home country and it was too dangerous for them to return. They kept in touch by phone and letter.

And lots of people still today can't afford to visit family abroad. They deal with it.
A family friend lives over here and her sister is in Australia. She can afford to visit but both are elderly and not in the best health. They stay in touch by internet and phone.

I'm sure New Zealand will survive if UK emigrants return here. We're not special. They'll survive just fine without us. They can recruit new immigrants (if they need anyone) from clean countries - much of Asia, for example - who've effectively dealt with Covid.

Dunno what the plan is if no vaccine. We may decide to go for trying to control the spread slowly.

For now though extreme suppression is working well.

I woke up with a scratchy throat yesterday morning. Ducked down to my local drive through Covid testing centre. Home by 9:30am, home to isolate until results. Results back by 14:30 (negative happily), on the bus on the way to work right now. Was my day off so no matter. But there is also now financial assistance for if you can't work while waiting for test etc...

It isn't perfect, nothing will be pefect and what works in one place won't work in another. It is good enough.

But as I said upthread our government have done a good job with this. The messaging is clear, the support is adequate and we are back to a sort of normal (well my days are).

Even Morrison isn't pissing me off too much right now.

That is a really good point, @SheepandCow. I’ve totally taken the possibility of being the other side of the world in 30ish hours for granted. Whereas my mum took six weeks on a ship.

@Theradioison

Can I just be devil's advocate and ask what happens in NZ and Australia if no effective vaccine is ever developed? Then what?

Both NZ and Oz are transitioning from the sprint phase (shut the borders, ramp up the health system, put processes in place) to the marathon phase (consider options and long term repercussions of any decisions). The actions taken in the first phase allow them to do this without panic and at a more leisurely pace. In Oz the state borders are staring to open. There is consideration around bringing in international students again but with discussion around how this work and what would be involved. I think one of the northern states brought in workers from Vanuatu for fruit picking. So the borders are being heavily managed but there are considerations for exceptions. There is also been increasing talk over the last few days of the trans Tasman bubble with NZ/Aus. and it's looking like that would be with small initial steps like Christchurch to WA, rather than fully opening and having a mad rush. This would allow both sides to work through teething problems at a much smaller scale and with lesser impact than opening a Sydney to Auckland route. It's forcing both sides to work through it logically and in a (hopefully) sustainable way. And while there may be a recession in both NZ and Aus the low infection rates are allowing the majority to go about their days in close to normal way- a luxury I am incredibly grateful for! My friends businesses are operating, our local shops are doing well, my dd is in daycare, our schools are operating, my workplace is considering how we incorporate wfh on long term basis without losing the culture etc. so I think they will begin to open just in a very cautious and measured way.

I think that's it spottygymbag, the early decisions bought us the luxury of time to get things in place so now we can hammer out the details.

There were stuff ups for sure but it was mostly handled well. Good dose of luck as well I am sure!

Vaccines are expected to be available from early 2021. Even relatively poor protection from a vaccine will still slow the spread of the disease. Because the spread will be slowed, it will be easier to stop the virus from overwhelming the health system.

@AllAussieAdventures yes I agree with the luck side of it too. We could see it happening further away and had just that little bit more time.
Most people I know both in Oz and NZ are glad the borders were closed and are enjoying their freedoms. Even the Vic outbreak is coming under control and many lessons have been learned! (Although NZ's national leader recently seemed to want to plump for private management of quarantine hotels).

To clarify national leader= leader of the National Party, not Jacinda.

If there was no vaccine, ever? Who knows - presumably a slow managed opening of borders with restricted numbers and close monitoring. Employment in those fields rather than in tourism I guess. Short quarantines and mass testing.
If it was really restricted, they obviously would lose some of their immigrants, depending on how the rest of the world was doing. Anecdotally, I’m seeing children from our school heading back to china as they were used to travelling back and forth multiple times a year, or having one parent in China and one in Aus, then travelling during holidays. Already lost 3 children from one son’s class.
But hopefully that won’t happen, we will have a slow and measured opening and then a vaccine. Fingers crossed!

Also, tourism in Australia hasn’t been as affected as people feared. I mean, it is bad, but obviously all of us stuck here are going on holiday here instead of going overseas, and also as we can’t do these expensive overseas holidays, we have more money to spend here.
I went up to the Hunter region which is about 2 hours north of Sydney and is know for its wineries. They said that the Sydney tourists have well made up for the lack of overseas tourists, and also because overseas ones tend to come, do wine tasting and then leave, they don’t spend as much as Sydney people who come and buy cases of wine that they can take home.
Only a snapshot but I imagine this is replicated in other parts of the country.

I agree @Ozgirl75, I’m in SA and have visited places here and spent money instead of going to other parts of Australia.

our already premium customers realise that they want food that is fresh and covid free
What is covid free food when it's at home?

@AllAussieAdventures

Dunno what the plan is if no vaccine. We may decide to go for trying to control the spread slowly.

For now though extreme suppression is working well.

I woke up with a scratchy throat yesterday morning. Ducked down to my local drive through Covid testing centre. Home by 9:30am, home to isolate until results. Results back by 14:30 (negative happily), on the bus on the way to work right now. Was my day off so no matter. But there is also now financial assistance for if you can't work while waiting for test etc...

It isn't perfect, nothing will be pefect and what works in one place won't work in another. It is good enough.

But as I said upthread our government have done a good job with this. The messaging is clear, the support is adequate and we are back to a sort of normal (well my days are).

Even Morrison isn't pissing me off too much right now.

Sounds so flipping great compared to the utter shit going on in the UK. And NZ and Australia are coming out of their winter now - we are just going into ours and our winter will be absolutely horrendous, so much worse, mostly due to the government's different management of it.

It would have been possible to close borders except for freight - presumably NZ have been importing food and other freight throughout (similar climate to here). NZ kept their airports open for passengers transferring between flights, which is the argument people give for the UK being a special case as a transport hub. Perfectly possible to keep this area of aviation going without the free-for-all chicken-pox-style virus party the UK was between Feb and June.
It is so sad to be stuck in the awful UK situation while much of the rest of the world is much less awful, even with the restrictions that they do have.

I hope other world leaders take note of what NZ has done and learn from it. I don't think covid is actually that bad but one day, there could very possibly be a new virus that's as infectious as measles and as deadly as ebola, eradicate should absolutely be the first goal, it should have been with covid. Much better a massive over reaction to any new virus than to find ourselves where we are now (or worse) for one thing, it would be cheaper.

Next time I think countries will be swifter re travel and borders.

The WHO didn’t help I wonder if they’ll learn too on this.

I hope so.
As I understand it the WHO advice NOT to shut down air travel was because countries hide and deny new diseases (remember how we were about BSE), it was to make it easier for a country to raise a red flag without financial consequences. Also, the WHO is funded by countries, it only has the teeth we let it have.

I think mandatory quarantine and borders even between areas within a country would help. Because then low incidence areas with good testing can get back up and running.

They would need to think hard about cross-border living, working though. It is do-able. Europe put in borders between countries where people often commute or do their shopping. But in UK I don’t think people will want it.

Interesting comment @KenDodd about BSE. In NZ people who were in the UK when BSE was a new issue still can’t give blood.

@MarshaBradyo

Next time I think countries will be swifter re travel and borders.

The WHO didn’t help I wonder if they’ll learn too on this.

Does this second wave count as 'next time'? The government aren't showing any signs of closing the borders apart from essential travel, transfers and freight. Bet in local lockdown areas people are still allowed to fly off on holiday and back again. Bet in next national lockdown (in whatever form that will be), people are still allowed to fly off on holiday and back again. Bet the airlines/airport are still the ones tasked with enforcing quarantine forms etc, even though it is not in their own interest to do so. This government will never learn.

"Clean" countries? Fucking hell, do people realise the narratives they are dicing with when they invoke this kind of language?