What will New Zealand do long term?

[Missingsockswheresotheygo]

What do people think will happen in New Zealand long term?

I initially thought they were in the best position but now I'm not so sure.

A vaccine won't eradicate the virus it will only suppress it to manageable levels (I think?)

But with their population having no immunity will it not just wreak havoc the minute they open their borders?

Hey OP, have you sat down to think what will WE be do long term? We are drowning in our own mess with no end in sight but happy to criticise others who are having a better time than us? So jealous of them.

@mackers1

Will a vaccine really be a silver bullet? The flu vaccine doesn't offer guaranteed protection and flu still kills thousands of people every year. We will have no idea how effectively a covid vaccine will work- or even what the uptake will be for it. From what I've learnt, vaccinations provide immunity but you have to have a relatively strong immune system for it to work. So, the vulnerable will have to rely on the younger population being vaccinated to provide the immunity to them as the vaccinations will not be so effective for them. Makes community (herd) immunity sound like a better option, doesn't it?

Except there are already cases of reinfection, so it does not look like herd immunity would be an option, even if we were to ignore the vast loss of life and health involved in attempting to achieve it.

If a vaccine and therapeutics don't significantly improve the situation, then I think the future is looking very grim.

@Missingsockswheresotheygo

What do people think will happen in New Zealand long term?

I initially thought they were in the best position but now I'm not so sure.

A vaccine won't eradicate the virus it will only suppress it to manageable levels (I think?)

But with their population having no immunity will it not just wreak havoc the minute they open their borders?

The % of people with Covid antibodies in the US which has had a huge number of cases is only around 7%. It takes a very long time for natural herd immunity to develop and there’s a lot of cost in terms of sickness and death to get there.

@mac12

They will thrive. Healthy population = healthy economy. They will trade & travel with fellow zerocovid nations in pan-Pacific region, which includes China, Thailand, Vietnam etc They will have pick of immigration - high net wealth individuals, highly skilled Workers, creators & innovators from across the world who wish to live in a normally functioning democratic society without onerous restrictions. Their economy won’t have drag of circulating illness, chronic burden of long term ill-health & high taxation. Well done them.

This.

Vaccines are being developed, better treatments too.

They won't have any long-term disabled Long Covid patients to care for, and by the time they open up we may well know more about it and how to prevent and/or treat it.

I also wonder - having seen quite how crappily so many people in other countries, for example the UK, are behaving they'll probably think good riddance. Who'd want us coming in? Moaning, whingeing In Denial Brits. I'm quite sure they'll manage just fine without us travelling over.

I’m in Sydney and how we have dealt with it here has been so good to date. We have an excellent track and trace scheme so even when we had a rise in cases, they were tracked and contacts isolated and we have now had no community infection for a couple of days and very low numbers before that.
Australia is also a more rule following country than the U.K., so I think people here have very much accepted that we have some restrictions (travel) but we are prepared to put up with that to have day to day life basically as normal. I’m not sure whether it’s a more rule following country actually or whether the people are just more pragmatic that they understand that some freedoms will be curtailed to protect other freedoms. It’s interesting, a different mindset to the U.K. somehow.
I suspect that we will open our borders slowly, firstly to countries with minimal cases, and they will have to have a test before they get here and maybe a test 7 days after arriving, or maybe a shorter quarantine firstly? Then they will just have to rely on the strength of the test and trace system we have. It’s very easy to get tested and I guess they could expand that even more.
Maybe there will be a system where every traveller has to be tested on arrival, a week later and then two weeks after that.
It’s hard, I grant you. I want to be able to travel as all my family are in the U.K., but equally I don’t want life to be like it is in the U.K. with the virus running wild and so many restrictions.

New Zealand produces healthy food which is being exported all around the world - demand is through the roof as our already premium customers realise that they want food that is fresh and covid free. We don't really need all that low-value tourism as much as we thought we did. We have our pick of immigrants - all Covid has done has made our little slice of paradise look even more attractive to people wishing to move here. I think shutting the border was one of the best things to happen to this country. We were getting ourselves into a pickle allowing too many people in.

Zero new cases today. Zero. Do you know how freeing that is.

I disagree. With closed borders they will become more and more isolated and insular. Pan Pacific trade with China, really?

Um, New Zealand entered into a free trade agreement with China in 2008, and with it came a unique competitive advantage. The free trade agreement was a first between China and any first world country. New Zealand goods exports to China have quadrupled since the free trade agreement was signed and entered into force in 2008. China is now New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

As a kiwi currently living in Sydney I think they did the right thing.
The health system would not have coped and they took action to deal with the immediate impact of covid by limiting entry. So much has already been learned about covid that the initial protection has already benefited them.
I'm curious to see how they will shift from the sprint mode to marathon mode and selfishly hope a trans Tasman bubble is eventually a possibility. Having said that I'm incredibly relieved that my family there can live pretty much normal lives as we can here in Sydney.
Track and trace is able to work due to low numbers, the health and quarantine systems can cope with the numbers etc.
I think it will also force a lot of companies to re-think their approaches, to adapt and stay afloat- something which is quite a kiwi attribute (did you see the innovative ways of delivering coffee through the windows?).
Those that are willing to adapt will do well in this time I think.
NZ is also quite self sufficient and while borders are closed trade can and does still continue, particularly for export.

I don't know what will happen long term but I'm pretty happy to be here.

Even if in the future something happens and Covid gets out of control in NZ we are much better prepared than in March. For example, we have learnt that steroid treatments reduce death by a third in severely ill patients. That knowledge could save a lot of people.

Yes the economic reports from Q2 look terrible but that is the quarter we spent in lockdown. Subsequent reports might be much better.

I don't know how long borders will be shut but another 2-3 years like this doesn't bother me - and yes, I have had to change major life plans including significant time abroad.

I'm in Western Australia. We've had no community transmission since April. The only people here who have COVID have come from outside the WA border, which is shut. They are all in quarantine or hospital. Life here is safe and normal, and my god everyone really appreciates it! Our premier wants the state border to stay shut until it is safe to open, so I assume internal borders will start coming down once Victoria is safe. I can't see International travel happening for a long time, until a vaccine is rolled out. This means I have no idea when (or even if) I will see my mum again, but I fully support the shut border, as it is keeping us safe. Everyone I know id watching what is happening In Europe is absolute horror, I am so worried for my friends and family and feel like we had a very lucky escape. As for what happens long term, well who knows? But I know which country I'd rather be in right now.

What will any country do long term? Shut their borders and try to live as normally as possible? Or flip in and out of lockdown until their economy is totally fucked?

Western Australia is very isolated from everywhere, even the rest of Australia - I don't know of anywhere in Europe you could compare it to. Maybe an island like Shetland.

New Zealand acted in March to buy itself a month to try to get the hospitals to a point to cope with what was coming. What we did was just spectacularly effective. It is a problem to know what is for the best from here but I for one am glad that the problem we face means that we have only lost 25 Kiwis to this point. We have bought time, and with time comes worldwide knowledge and the chance of an effective enough vaccine.

I live in a tourist town in NZ and work in hospo. Everyone assumed that we would be hit hard with the borders shut but its absolutely booming. In general, NZers travel and holiday a lot. With the borders closed everyone is travelling within the country. We temporarily went back to alert level 2 for a few weeks which impacted us slightly with limits on function sizes and seated service but its all back to normal. I desperately miss my family back in the UK but I know that my future will be a lot worse if I go back.

The major thing for now is the general election next month. Whatever happens politically we still have Ashley Bloomfield the Director General of Health whose colleagues call “measured, methodical, calm and sensible". That’ll do me for the moment.

I think shutting the border was one of the best things to happen to this country. We were getting ourselves into a pickle allowing too many people in.

I totally agree with you on this @Guineapigbridge

I'm a dual Australia/ New Zealand citizen with family on both sides of the ditch.
I think they've done the right thing completely, and once we get Victoria and NSW under control I hope Australia follows them.
Being islands is a beneficial thing.
We've already learned the hard way with Victoria here, that bouncing out of lockdown too early, 'cracking on', and then having to return to it is far worse economically. No one wants to see that happen again.
It does remain to be seen if our moronic Federal government catches on, but our state premiers are standing firm and there is large public support for keeping international borders shut. I think the Feds will have to toe the line.
Without community transmission the only cases come from overseas, which is no advertisement for opening borders at all, and with compulsory quarantines and mandatory testing it can be controlled.

We'll be fine without the Northern Hemisphere.

I've been seeing chatter today about the Aus NZ travel bubble again, not sure when but it's on the table

@Woundedadmiral

Although I don't think that's what a lot of people want to see... They don't want to see it working out for NZ because it means we got it wrong.b they want to see NZ in a bit of a pickle.

Personally I applaud them.

I agree quite a few people seem keen to see NZ fail.

Sadly the UK people were completely let down by government, who made choices and are still making choices to let the virus spread. Ardern chose to try to keep deaths low.

I hope NZ do ok.

The borders btw are not shut but there is quarantine.

The borders btw are not shut but there is quarantine
The NZ Government's own website states that the borders are closed

www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/covid-19/border-closures-and-exceptions

[quote StarCat2020]The borders btw are not shut but there is quarantine
The NZ Government's own website states that the borders are closed

www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/covid-19/border-closures-and-exceptions[/quote]
I thought people from NZ could leave/return? Apols if wrong.

I thought it was just tourism affected.

"Only a small number of people can travel to New Zealand, such as New Zealand citizens and people with a critical purpose to travel. You may need to request to travel first."

Australia is vast - I don't think comparing it to the UK is helpful. Or just another excuse to whinge about Boris.

NZ are fortunate in that they are a self sufficient island & have used it to their advantage.

Only ‘problem’ I could foresee is if covid proliferates around the rest of the globe and there is no effective vaccine in the medium/longer term.

Their younger backpacker generation etc might get p*ssed off if the rest of the world have reopened borders by then & ‘took it on the chin’