What will New Zealand do long term?

[Missingsockswheresotheygo]

What do people think will happen in New Zealand long term?

I initially thought they were in the best position but now I'm not so sure.

A vaccine won't eradicate the virus it will only suppress it to manageable levels (I think?)

But with their population having no immunity will it not just wreak havoc the minute they open their borders?

h) but Australia acted decisively, closed borders, got a track and trace app going in weeks, had hundreds of test centres, bought up masses of PPE and that, combined with reall
We are still having probs with track and trace as are other countries I believe . I wonder how yours worked so well? Something to do with a single internet co. and ppe ? Trade deal with China or just smaller population so easier to get required amount. I'm not querying your post @Ozgirl75 just wondering why it was straightforward - only GermNy seemed to get to grips quickly this side of the world.

@Straven123 I don’t really know why it worked so well. I think it was probably because we could start it really early so the numbers were low.
So in July/August this year we had the beginnings of another breakout which spread from Melbourne, but it has been brought under control now. I think this was because the numbers still weren’t huge.
Back in March/April because we slammed the border shut, we were left with a pretty small number of cases, a few hundred at most. So they could be traced easily, plus people desperately wanted it to work so they did tend to follow the rules and isolate (in general).
The U.K., on the other hand, let all those people go skiing in Italy, the place of a massive outbreak, then didn’t isolate them when they got back, and by the time they started trying to trace them, the numbers were already too far gone to do anything about it.
I’m no expert though, so I don’t know. Other things help here like the fact that our major cities are really far apart, most people live moderately close to where they work. Also we were told by March that we should work from home, should avoid public transport etc.
Our school was quarantining its children coming back from China in January. So basically we just did things before they got bad, instead of waiting until they were really bad and then trying to fix it.

Plus one thing I think helped hugely was that we have a huge number of people who come from China originally here, so we were taking the news of an outbreak seriously from day 1.

@LemonTT

I don’t think there is any point asking NZers to critique their country. They are convinced they are exceptional and can do no wrong.

I have extended family in NZ, but I'm British and live in the UK. To my great regret. Years back I was planning to move to NZ. I met my partner and ended up staying here (he now wishes we'd both gone).

NZ are brilliant. I'd take Jacinda over our government any day of the week.

brushandmop

I am in NZ but am from UK. My Kiwi partner and I have most of our family in the UK including both elderly parents.

A huge amount of people in NZ were born overseas. Unless a vaccine is found and we are able to open the borders within the next year, it is going to become untenable that we continue to live here.

Whilst I was happy with the initial response by the government, there has been no thought given to anyone who needs to be able to travel due to family overseas. NZ has been welcoming immigrants for decades but soon no one will want to come here if they can never leave. $7000 to quarantine after an overseas visit plus 2 weeks managed isolation is not possible.

We may be virtually Covid free but people are suffering. We had a trip home in July cancelled and now my mother is ill. It's nice to wake up and have the freedoms on a day to day scale but long term the worry is enormous.

^This. I worry about the same thing, but the other way round. I’m in the UK with parents about to turn 90 in NZ and all my family there. I have work and kids here so can’t do the quarantine thing and feel very anxious about how long this will go on for.

NZers will revel in spectacular scenery smuggery forever more.... but maybe not starting before 2022 or whenever an effective vaccine has been rolled out throughout most of world.

I think they will form travel bubbles with low COVID nations in e Asia and Aus.

I think life there will be more normal than here.

They're entitled to feel smug but no one knows how things will pan out. Everyone's in the 'who knows what the future holds' boat.

Less smug and more grateful.

Tourism bypassed farming (dairy) as our main industry in 2018/19.

Maybe so, but dairy isn't the only type of farming we have in NZ. Tbh I'm pleased that we are having a break from overseas tourists - there were far too many of them and they were ruining beautiful parts of the country.

I thought I read that tourism accounted for 9% of the total NZ economy. So yes, a not inconsiderate chunk but they wont lose all of it if the population has to holiday at home. And that still leaves the vast majority of the economy functioning, unlike in the UK where so many sectors are damaged.

@August20

A lot of people say that the country will need to open up for travel purposes but is it possible that we have seen the end of the golden age of travel? Travel between UK-NZ used to take weeks, maybe it will again. I thought airlines might go under due to climate change concerns eventually if clean energy couldn't be achieved, maybe this is the catalyst instead.

I don't say this to be alarmist in anyway, it's just a possibility that occurred to me.

I tend to agree with you here. I am very doubtful that international travel will return to the levels it was pre- pandemic for a number of years if ever.

New Zealand and Australian in particular need to get to work on repatriating the number of citizens stuck overseas who can't get affordable flights back, because right now that situation is a disaster. Australia alone has over 30,000 people unable to return, through lack of flights and government caps relating to what we can manage in quarantine.
For those who migrated to NZ and Australia from the UK and elsewhere I understand that distance has now become insurmountable, and families are separated and I have no solution for this but strongly doubt things will change in a hurry for this reason alone, till their countries of origin get a better handle on controlling the pandemic or people are prepared to pay for quarantine periods should they wish to leave and then return.

Taiwan too is an example that should be looked at with their higher population numbers and no cases. There are a number of Asian countries doing well , probably from their more direct experiences with SARS and MERS . Their populations are more compliant, and more understanding of the risks in public health emergency situations, and the roles the public must play in containment.

It seems that the countries who moved fast, shut their borders,stopped air travel and a lot of internal movement, compulsorily quarantined arrivals in facilities- not leaving it up to the individuals own sense of responsibility, and had coherent, consistent messaging to the public have generally seem to have done better - for now.

The limits for repatriating people were to enable our quarantine systems to cope. There is a limited number of places for them to go. It also enables our track and trace to stay on top of it because it's helping to keep the case numbers low.
I think one of the key differences really is the testing. In NSW our rates are really low at the moment- 4 days without a local case and two in hotel isolation reported for Tuesday. Despite the low numbers the focus on getting tested remains, even for a sniffle. Kids in daycare with cough? Test. Scratchy throat? Test. The turnaround is fast too. It's keeping us ahead of the game and then the track and tracers actually have a chance. I really feel for the places with such limitations on testing because I don't understand how they can get ahead of it without having decent testing capacity
Interestingly NZ has just added a hotel quarantine booking form to its arrival process which you must show before you depart. I wonder if this is putting some necessary steps in place in order for travel bubbles to work. There is also been talk again of a trans-Tasman bubble before Christmas but the key word is "could".

It was great to see on the news today the idea that home isolation might be used for returning people from places with minimal cases, like Japan and South Korea.

@Ozgirl75

It was great to see on the news today the idea that home isolation might be used for returning people from places with minimal cases, like Japan and South Korea.

This is a big step, NZ showed even with great caution it can return.

What is driving the decision do you think?

I think it’s probably driven by a couple of things. We’ve shown in NSW that we can have a low level of cases and it not get out of hand with track and trace and loads of testing.
Secondly I think it’s driven by a desire to get tourism up and running again, albeit on a slow footing initially, to start getting back to normal again. Plus presumably to limit the numbers in quarantine and get flights going again.

Also Aus has never aimed for the “zero cases” idea that NZ has, which gives them more flexibility.

At first I was really angry with our government because I wished they'd gone down the NZ route.

If every country in the world had had the ambition, determination and leadership to take the NZ option covid could have been extinguished completely. I hope world leaders take note, learn and are ready for the next new virus.

With regard to where we are now, even if no effective vaccine or treatment are discovered, at least the NZ strategy have given them some thinking and planning time.

I bet NZ are in a much better position than us both economically and public health, and will do better long term because of the path they took.
Well done JA especially (as I understand it , NZers may correct) she in government with the hard right who were dead against this path.

@KenDodd

I bet NZ are in a much better position than us both economically and public health, and will do better long term because of the path they took. Well done JA especially (as I understand it , NZers may correct) she in government with the hard right who were dead against this path.

NZ First aren't the hard right. They're not big on immigration, but they're huge on freebies for their key demographic (those of retirement age).

Act are the hard right.

Thanks for putting me right.

Actually @Kendodd I don't remember any political resistance to NZ's lockdown at the end of March, the National party was supportive. NZ First didn't complain about it until after the lockdown and things were looking brighter, then Winston started campaigning for the upcoming election.

There's certainly been a lot of political discussion about the economic effects of lockdown and closing the border, but all political parties seem fairly unanimous on the need to keep covid out for as long as possible.

My best friend lives in Auckland, so we talk most days on WhatsApp about what's happening there. I'm in Jersey, and she used to live here so she knows the island too.

We locked down in March and closed our borders like NZ, Aus, IOM and Guernsey (and others). Unlike the others, we opened our borders (carefully!) again in July, but with testing at the border. I will admit I was sceptical it would work, but to be honest it seems to be the best middle ground.

No, we're not Covid-free any longer (we were). But we're constantly on an average of about 15 'active' cases a day, and have been since the borders opened. No community transmission or outbreaks - all the cases have been identified at the border, or through contact tracing of those cases (our test and trace works well). Schools are all open as normal.

So we've got some freedom to come and go now, life is relatively normal, and we've been able to rescue some of the precious tourism which helps drive our local economy. But numbers travelling are low now the summer's over - mostly locals, but everyone is aware of the risk of bringing it back to the island from the UK now. (The UK used to be all green, but now it's all split up into green, amber and red zones, and all are treated differently at the border).

My friend in NZ thinks the way we're doing it is the right way to go in the longer term while we're waiting for a vaccine. She's worried because of the damage a lack of tourism is doing to the NZ economy. Covid is here to stay, and until there's a vaccine (our MOH seems to think a vaccine of sorts will be here by the spring) and we've got enough advanced orders in to vaccinate the whole island when it's released - that's only 106,000 though, so obviously not the number issues the UK has for vaccines. We've also got enough flu vaccines to give a free one to everyone who should have one anyway, plus everyone over the age of 50. For the first time ever, I'll be having one!

But it does seem to be that the things that make us able to live relatively normally over here are all related to firstly shutting our borders in March, and then testing everyone when we opened them. It's not perfect, and it's never going to lead to zero Covid cases, but we seem to have proven it works 'well enough' to prevent a second build-up of infections such as the UK is seeing now. Guernsey have been much more conservative, more or less still 'closed', and from what a previous poster said, the IOM seems to have chosen that route too.

There's no 'right' way to do it, but I think Jersey's made a pretty good job of balancing everything and still keeping things under control. I feel very safe going about my day as normal. I used to think we should have gone 'full New Zealand', but now I don't think it's the answer to try and lock yourself away until there's a vaccine. But then, we're a small island, not an entire country. Maybe that's where the difference lies in balancing the economics?

I would have thought that if there is no community transmission, the. They just ensure quarantine of people coming in from abroad

They will thrive. Healthy population = healthy economy. They will trade & travel with fellow zerocovid nations in pan-Pacific region, which includes China, Thailand, Vietnam etc They will have pick of immigration - high net wealth individuals, highly skilled Workers, creators & innovators from across the world who wish to live in a normally functioning democratic society without onerous restrictions.
Their economy won’t have drag of circulating illness, chronic burden of long term ill-health & high taxation.
Well done them

But they are not “thriving”

Businesses are going under and long term there won’t be anything to trade with.

They are in one of the worst recessions.
They are not doing well.
There may never be an effective vaccine
Do they keep there borders shut forever.
And when they do open the borders or more than likely people take to the streets to protest about businesses going under and no jobs it will rip through the country and they would have as many deaths as they would have had if they hadn’t closed up in the first place. But they have bankrupted the country in the meantime.

I think we all need to get it at once. That is the way herd immunity works. If we all got it within 6 months and those that needed to isolated then it would be over and done with but it would have to be a worldwide thing.

I am wondering whether the difference between Kabul and Brazil is the air.

Kabul and the African countries tend to have drier air whilst Brazil I always get the impression is a lot more humid.

Never been to Brazil but it might just have a degree of humidity extra that makes the virus thrive.