What will New Zealand do long term?

[Missingsockswheresotheygo]

What do people think will happen in New Zealand long term?

I initially thought they were in the best position but now I'm not so sure.

A vaccine won't eradicate the virus it will only suppress it to manageable levels (I think?)

But with their population having no immunity will it not just wreak havoc the minute they open their borders?

@FourTeaFallOut

"Clean" countries? Fucking hell, do people realise the narratives they are dicing with when they invoke this kind of language?

I know all this clean / infected rhetoric is gross.

Disconnect I think it’s too late. You need very low numbers. Now we can walk the economic / health tightrope.

@FourTeaFallOut

"Clean" countries? Fucking hell, do people realise the narratives they are dicing with when they invoke this kind of language?

UNCLEAN UNCLEAN! shrieks and shakes hands violently

@MarshaBradyo

Disconnect I think it’s too late. You need very low numbers. Now we can walk the economic / health tightrope.

Wasn't too late in June or July - that was the UK's second chance after March. Instead the government went the opposite direction and lockdown low levels are now gone. So our government already had second chance to get it right and screwed up a second time...

I’m not sure on comparative figures for actual cases in community. July v NZ for example.

But also I’m very aware of other side of coin - economic damage so I can see the pressure in opposite direction.

Of course stopping it very early is better economically but most of the European countries are battling with this balance in the same way as we are. The path through it is fairly similar once you miss very early interruption (not sure any of us could have made that early date)

Given it was in this country prior to the WHO saying it hadn’t left China I think any opportunity we had of going down the full lockdown/close borders was gone.

Equally we are only a few miles from France and even if we shut all travel we still have people in dinghys coming in under their own steam

@KenDodd

I hope other world leaders take note of what NZ has done and learn from it. I don't think covid is actually that bad but one day, there could very possibly be a new virus that's as infectious as measles and as deadly as ebola, eradicate should absolutely be the first goal, it should have been with covid. Much better a massive over reaction to any new virus than to find ourselves where we are now (or worse) for one thing, it would be cheaper.

We tend to focus (understandably) on transmissibility and virulence but surely the factor which makes this pandemic so difficult to control is the high numbers of asymptomatic carriers Is it not the asymptomatic carriers which make it so so difficult to eradicate?

I don't think the UK is unique in having asymptomatic cases, other countries have to tackle that problem too.
But our response has been clearly poor both in terms of health (no. of cases and no. of deaths per capita) and worse in terms of the economy (worst recession in 100 years).

@Oliversmumsarmy

Given it was in this country prior to the WHO saying it hadn’t left China I think any opportunity we had of going down the full lockdown/close borders was gone.

Equally we are only a few miles from France and even if we shut all travel we still have people in dinghys coming in under their own steam

It was also in New Zealand and Australia. They have a lot of Chinese students, business travellers, and tourists for a start. They had a cruise ship outbreak too.

The difference is they took (effective) action to deal with and contain the spread. Strict initial lockdown, then kept borders tightly restricted once lockdown eased.

It's entirely within our control who enters the country. That's the case for any country. In fact, we were one of only a few countries in the world who didn't adopt some form of border restriction and/or proper quarantine.

Countries across mainland Europe - with their land borders - managed to restrict borders. The USA and Canada too.

The migrants arriving on dingies could be intercepted and properly quarantined (as we could have done with any essential travel). It's all in our control.

The migrants arriving on dingies could be intercepted and properly quarantined (as we could have done with any essential travel). It's all in our control.

The government have investigated this possibility (the Aussie-style housing of refugees offshore) but there is fierce opposition to it.

Basically, if the borders cannot be secured, zero COVID is impossible. We have to pick our poison. 🤷‍♀️

@FourTeaFallOut

"Clean" countries? Fucking hell, do people realise the narratives they are dicing with when they invoke this kind of language?

What narrative? Are you getting offended on behalf of a virus? I don't think Covid cares how we describe it.

If you're outraged about the wording, you'd better have a word with the NHS.
They've designated non Covid wards and hospitals as the 'clean' areas/hospitals.

It's a simple fact. Currently, whilst we're failing to contain Covid, we - the UK - are an infected country. Countries like New Zealand, Australia, Germany, and many in Asia, are clean (non inflected) countries.

A few days later, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a strict national lockdown when it only had 102 cases and zero deaths.

That was March 26

Also when we locked down, our cases would have been much higher of course, but I wonder which date in U.K. was comparable.

@PicsInRed

The migrants arriving on dingies could be intercepted and properly quarantined (as we could have done with any essential travel). It's all in our control.

The government have investigated this possibility (the Aussie-style housing of refugees offshore) but there is fierce opposition to it.

Basically, if the borders cannot be secured, zero COVID is impossible. We have to pick our poison. 🤷‍♀️

I mean quarantine them here in the UK. Like Australia and New Zealand are doing for their essential travellers. Taken by coach with ppe to quarantine hotels/accomodation. Test, track, and trace.

I mean quarantine them here in the UK. Like Australia and New Zealand are doing for their essential travellers. Taken by coach with ppe to quarantine hotels/accomodation. Test, track, and trace.

There are limited quarantine facilities and therefore now limited permissions to travel to NZ. They now require a pre-booked quarantine voucher in order to be allowed to board your flight to NZ. The issue with refugees in boats is that the number coming is unlimited, therefore unable to be safely and securely managed in the sort of managed facilities NZ operates.

It's a simple fact. Currently, whilst we're failing to contain Covid, we - the UK - are an infected country. Countries like New Zealand, Australia, Germany, and many in Asia, are clean (non inflected) countries.

Germany is not Covid free, it's at about 200 cases a day.

@BlueBlancmange

It's a simple fact. Currently, whilst we're failing to contain Covid, we - the UK - are an infected country. Countries like New Zealand, Australia, Germany, and many in Asia, are clean (non inflected) countries.

Germany is not Covid free, it's at about 200 cases a day.

2000 I mean

A few days later, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a strict national lockdown when it only had 102 cases and zero deaths

That was March 26

We already had Covid here in December. When do you think we should have shut down when at the time China refused to admit there was a problem.

@Oliversmumsarmy

A few days later, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a strict national lockdown when it only had 102 cases and zero deaths

That was March 26

We already had Covid here in December. When do you think we should have shut down when at the time China refused to admit there was a problem.

China refusing to admit a problem was like a child with chocolate smeared around it's face.

It was obvious to anyone with eyes and a brain what was going on. They didn't shutdown and have people in hazmat suits spraying disinfectant in their streets for fun.

@Namenic

I think mandatory quarantine and borders even between areas within a country would help. Because then low incidence areas with good testing can get back up and running.

They would need to think hard about cross-border living, working though. It is do-able. Europe put in borders between countries where people often commute or do their shopping. But in UK I don’t think people will want it.

Interesting you should mention that. Australia has mandatory 2week quarantine between certain states. How it works depends on the state guidelines and where you are coming from but this definitely helped limit the spread in Australia. In NZ they effectively shut off greater Auckland when they had their second outbreak just after the 100 ish days covid free. Limiting and slowing the movement of people again helped them catch up and get ahead of it again.

Woundedadmiral
We have no effective immunity either.

A vaccine will mimic far better immunity than if they'd had the a bout of the virus.

I think they'll wait for that, open up and emerge without the death toll.
Do you have a source for the claim that having had the virus gives 'no effective immunity'?

Well we are in a relatively low case area, yet my neighbour tested positive in April, negative in July and positive again in September which reduces any consideration I had for the herd immunity theory.

SheepandCow what date for full lockdown and closed borders for 102 cases?

You are speaking with hindsight. Remember what was happening back then and how incongruent it would have been.

It was obvious to anyone with eyes and a brain what was going on. They didn't shutdown and have people in hazmat suits spraying disinfectant in their streets for fun

But up to a few weeks ago there was an insistence that Corona hadn't left China or at the very least it wasn’t in the UK till February/March time.

I am sure my whole family had Covid in December. We can trace the link to China.

Even though this virus was all over the news. Even though a lot of people I know had all the symptoms.

None of us connected our illness with Covid till a list of symptoms was in the media months later

If it was so obvious what was going on then who in the UK decided to not go to family at Christmas because they didn’t want to spread/catch Corona

Aus and NZ have the capacity to flick over/increase to manufacturing, keep farming and keep mining, expand investment in other industries. Internal tourism will keep us ticking over for a while yet. so what if borders are shut while we wait out this northern hemi winter and see what plays out... i actually think its given a lot of industry (and govt) a kick up the arse and can see us better for this time. Its forced govt to move and not be restrained by the pitiful election cycle thinking here in Aus. Obviously just having this viewpoint is from a place of exceptional privilige as the virus is now being brought under control and many of us are leading new covid normal lives - lots of hand sanitiser, social distancing but everything else pretty normal.
Many of us are hurt and separated by loved ones by the closed borders but its meant industry has been protected and kids in school - the whole year!
if no vaccine - and even if there is one it will take a year + to roll out, treatments and testing will improve and strategies can be made in how to live with the virus.
im quite interested in how by comparison Jersey, Balliwick of Guernsey etc will contiune to manage with such close proximity/ties with the UK... these places responses were similar to NZ and Aus but dont seem to be spoken about?

@MarshaBradyo

SheepandCow what date for full lockdown and closed borders for 102 cases?

You are speaking with hindsight. Remember what was happening back then and how incongruent it would have been.

I was speaking with foresight in January.

I remember my uttter shock and horror when we didn't do what Australia and New Zealand did.

It might've been here in December. In which case it was also in other countries - including those with usually large numbers of Chinese travellers, I.e. Australia and New Zealand.

Once the situstion was apparent, they took effective measures to deal with it. Unlike us. Instead we've spent the past nine months throwing our hands up insisting 'we can't, we can't, we can't'. We could finally say 'we can' but we won't. We'll continue doing what we're best at - excelling at being whingeing poms. Which means that in three to four months time we'll still be in this mess.

I remember my uttter shock and horror when we didn't do what Australia and New Zealand did.

Which was March not January.

Obviously there’s a glaring difference in numbers if NZ only had 102 in late March no matter your thoughts on large numbers coming in earlier. This included asymptomatic, all cases.

I think your posts are pie in the sky. I have family living normally there too. And it’s nice. But you need to be realistic about numbers rather than denigrate.

Btw have you thought about moving back?