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Original poster

What will New Zealand do long term?

205 replies

Missingsockswheresotheygo · 27/09/2020 20:44

What do people think will happen in New Zealand long term?

I initially thought they were in the best position but now I'm not so sure.

A vaccine won't eradicate the virus it will only suppress it to manageable levels (I think?)

But with their population having no immunity will it not just wreak havoc the minute they open their borders?

OP posts:
Lunar567 · 30/09/2020 15:43

It has been proven that lockdowns don't work.
New Zealand government is delusional if they think they can illuminate the virus. They cannot keep closed borders forever.
Their tourism industry is suffering.
Here we are close to immunity and they are far from it.
Sweden got it right. We should do the same.

BlueBlancmange · 30/09/2020 15:50

@Lunar567

It has been proven that lockdowns don't work. New Zealand government is delusional if they think they can illuminate the virus. They cannot keep closed borders forever. Their tourism industry is suffering. Here we are close to immunity and they are far from it. Sweden got it right. We should do the same.
The UK is close to immunity??
Disconnect · 30/09/2020 15:54

@MarshaBradyo

Vaccinate and open borders

Overall probably lower economic hit than us

Yes. Their approach will be much less economic depression than ours simply because apart from aviation and tourism everything else is open. So people still spending, plus people happier, less afraid. People said they couldn't do it, but they have. No-one is starving there, they look much happier and healthier than us.
Oliversmumsarmy · 30/09/2020 15:55

I think more people than we think have already had it.

Oliversmumsarmy · 30/09/2020 15:57

Yes. Their approach will be much less economic depression than ours simply because apart from aviation and tourism everything else is open. So people still spending, plus people happier, less afraid.
People said they couldn't do it, but they have. No-one is starving there, they look much happier and healthier than us

Where are you looking to get this impression

They are in their worst recession. Thousands of businesses are going under.

I don’t think it is exactly great over there

Disconnect · 30/09/2020 15:58

@Oliversmumsarmy

I think more people than we think have already had it.
I wish that was true. But if immunity was as widespread as some suggest, why are whole halls of residence of students getting positive results now. Unfortunately, it takes years to get herd immunity, not months (e.g. Spanish flu) or it take a virus to significantly mutate (e.g. Spanish flu). Coronaviruses don't mutate to the same extent as flu however.
Disconnect · 30/09/2020 15:59

Where are you looking to get this impression They are in their worst recession. Thousands of businesses are going under. I don’t think it is exactly great over there
Yes, they are in recession. So are we! Our recession will be worse though...

Aridane · 30/09/2020 16:09

I think we all need to get it at once

Ah, you’re one of those

KnightsofColumbusThatHurt · 30/09/2020 16:47

I think more people than we think have already had it.

Imperial College did a study where they randomised people to do a home antibody test, and they concluded that around 6% of the UK population had had it by August.

Aridane · 30/09/2020 16:47

So 94% haven’t- a long way then to herd immunity...

MarshaBradyo · 30/09/2020 16:49

I had heard 8% and higher in London, 17 to 20%

We are far from it

Interestingly some NYC boroughs are as high as 70%

MarshaBradyo · 30/09/2020 16:53

I think the bad news for us is that if a vaccine is available in 6 months to a year we have have that period of disruption and economic damage which will be greater than the same period for NZ - if you look at our GDP loss we are greater

On the up side we are closer to creating the vaccine, and hopefully it works then it will be needed, and the southern hemisphere will need it too. Are they doing their own too?

KnightsofColumbusThatHurt · 30/09/2020 16:57

Yep, a long way to go! Most of those people probably had it in March time (that is when I caught it) and then obviously we locked down. The percentage of people who have now had it will obviously be higher again, but it's probably still a long way from any sort of herd immunity. However, I guess any level of immunity in the population will slow transmission down so its got to be better than no immunity at all.

wondersun · 30/09/2020 17:01

@AllAussieAdventures

Same plan as us in Oz I think. We keep the doors locked until there is a vaccine.

We vaccinate the population and then we open up.

Once Melbourne is under control there are talks of NZ/Oz/Pacific Island travel.

We can also make everything we need as can NZ. Though obviously we like travellers/their money/products from overseas as well.

Don't worry about us dow here. We are fine.

Room for a little one? I think you’ve got it spot on and am envious but also pleased that you’ve shown how it could have been.
RepeatSwan · 30/09/2020 17:02

Here immunity is a pipe dream

RepeatSwan · 30/09/2020 17:06

Herd, not here!

EvilPea · 30/09/2020 17:11

Does anyone know how long immunity lasts after you have had it?

KnightsofColumbusThatHurt · 30/09/2020 17:19

The thing is though, everyone is talking about a vaccine arriving, but that is just it being licensed for use etc. It will take more months to produce enough to vaccinate the entire population, or enough of the population of herd immunity. Its not going to be 'the vaccine in here, and here is enough to vaccinate the whole population' all in one go.

I don't really know why everyone is so bothered what Australia and New Zealand have done anyway - they are completely different countries to the UK in many, many ways and what works for them would be unlikely to work in the same way anyway. Jacinda Ardern seems like a good leader but she is a good leader of her country.

We all know Boris is an incompetent arse, but neither do I necessarily think he should be looking to NZ for an example of what to do in the UK.

MarshaBradyo · 30/09/2020 17:21

I’ve always been interested in what date we would have had to close borders in same way as NZ to get same effect. Early Feb? When that Brighton guy came in? Because our appetite for closure was about zero then

MarshaBradyo · 30/09/2020 17:21

And the WHO were telling countries not to, although Taiwan did and then did well

KnightsofColumbusThatHurt · 30/09/2020 17:23

Does anyone know how long immunity lasts after you have had it?

They don't know yet, but someone I know had it in March and still has a high enough antibody level to donate plasma now. I think they think 6 months to a year. But once people have had it its no longer a 'novel virus' and humans do have a recognition of it I think?

The reason that we have to have a flu vaccine each year is because of different strains isn't it, not because our own immunity runs out? I don't know how that works with regards to Covid?

eaglejulesk · 30/09/2020 21:41

Where are you looking to get this impression They are in their worst recession. Thousands of businesses are going under. I don’t think it is exactly great over there

Yes, they are in recession. So are we! Our recession will be worse though...

NZ was in a pretty good way financially before covid hit. As for recession, indeed it will be worse in the UK.

@Oliversmumsarmy - where on earth are you getting your information from? Your writings bear no resemblance to the NZ I see about me on a daily basis. Things really are pretty much as normal here, other than the borders being shut. Everything is going on as usual in my town - new buildings being constructed, everyone out and about, the cafes and restaurants are as full as ever, people are shopping. You seem to be very doom and gloom about a country which (I assume) you don't even live in.

I have a couple of friends who are originally from the UK, and they are very pleased to be living here right now!

Disconnect · 30/09/2020 21:45

where on earth are you getting your information from? Your writings bear no resemblance to the NZ I see about me on a daily basis. Things really are pretty much as normal here, other than the borders being shut. Everything is going on as usual in my town - new buildings being constructed, everyone out and about, the cafes and restaurants are as full as ever, people are shopping. You seem to be very doom and gloom about a country which (I assume) you don't even live in. I have a couple of friends who are originally from the UK, and they are very pleased to be living here right now
Sounds absolutely wonderful. The UK is pretty hellish compared to this Sad. I know which country got it right in Feb/March IMO.

Disconnect · 30/09/2020 21:47

@MarshaBradyo

I’ve always been interested in what date we would have had to close borders in same way as NZ to get same effect. Early Feb? When that Brighton guy came in? Because our appetite for closure was about zero then
Not mine - I would have supported border closure then, but I didn't have a half-term break booked. Some people could see the problems with everyone going off skiing/city-breaking/winter-sunning to covid hotspots.
MarshaBradyo · 30/09/2020 21:53

Disconnect True there was the half term returners and some were already thinking about that not being a good idea.

In terms of comparable numbers to NZ I wonder if it would have to have been before then, plus they didn’t just do borders but did lockdown like us.

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