Are schools the reason for the surge?

[NebularNerd]

Thousands of people mixing daily with no social distancing.

Children pass the virus on, as BJ has said recently (despite previously saying otherwise).

Surely even if other measures are put in place, the numbers will continue to rise?

Are schools behind the surge?

Certainly that or a massive coincidence.

Every parent I know with school age kids are saying that there are kids in their D.C. school have tested positive. Year groups being sent home locally and one whole school.

I think the numbers were creeping up a bit anyway but they seem to have rocketed now. I don’t know if anyone can say for sure one way or another. Too early to analyse and trace clusters I guess.

I'm sure that schools are a part of it, yes. It stands to reason. Lots of people in enclosed spaces, often poorly ventilated and usually with very little possibility of social distancing.

Yes, they're a part of it. However nobody will admit to that so it's easier to blame everyone else.

Parents have been more able to return to the workplace and travel across town, shop, eat lunch out. Those parents still WFH are now able to socialise twice daily in the playground with little adherence to social distancing if they are that way inclined. It is part of the puzzle.

No, the government decision not to fund the proper protection for people in schools is the problem.

Of course they are. Been back a few weeks now, thousands of people in unventilated spaces with no PPE. Schools are germ hotspots and children spread germs like wildfire.

You didn’t believe Boris when he told you kids can’t catch or spread Covid and that schools were Covid secure did you?

It’s a huge transmission point-loads of parents in one place, loads of staff without masks, hundreds and thousands of kids with no masks and no social distancing.

More importantly-no testing.

I suspect the ‘circuit break’ style lockdown they are talking about is going to do very little to reduce the numbers of infections. Closing schools will though.

Yes definitely schools are going to be a hot spot for transmission, although it’s also down to people meeting up either indoors or outdoors and not socially distancing.

Govt can’t close schools because of the impact on the economy, hence why the restrictions on social gatherings and households have been applied.

It’s a real pickle because to stem the spread of this infection requires people to work together - but sadly too many people have too conflicting views for this to be achieved so it’s just going to go round and round in circles. Best case scenario is keep numbers low enough to not overwhelm health services

Yes.
Children in small spaces. Adults trying to keep their distance as much as they can but it’s not always possible. Poor cleaning (I’m watching to see how many weeks the two dead flies stay on the window sill).
But it’ll be blamed on one man not self isolating after a holiday properly.

@potatoofftheblock

No, the government decision not to fund the proper protection for people in schools is the problem.

Agree. I'm not blaming schools at all. I am blaming the government for handling this do badly purely to score political points. I'm a teacher and I posted about my concerns over the summer. Now it seems I'm sadly being proven right. 🤷‍♀️

There was always going to be a surge. The way to keep the surge slower was an extremely effective test and trace system and the government knew it wasn't fit for purpose when they lifted all the restrictions. Now we're getting exactly the results that were expected.

No, I don't think so. If they were we would be seeing huge increases everywhere in the country but the vast majority of cases are still in hot spot areas.

In my LA in the SE we have 6.5 cases/100,000 over the last 7 days and so far no signs of an increase. We regularly have days with zero new cases. The SW is also still seeing very low case numbers.

Cases in schools reflect cases in the community in my view, not the other way around.

Well that’s odd, I’m in the SW and I know of multiple school/year closures due to Covid. Including that of my own children. Low prevalence area, still plenty if Covid in the schools.

I don't think so. If it was down to schools, the curve in Scotland would be a few weeks ahead of England, as their schools went back sooner, which doesn't seem to be the case. Also, the beginning of the surge predates the schools going back.

No they're not. My local area has 8 cases per 100k. No school in the borough had sent year groups home. It's very much business as usual here.

I think it’s because the weather in August was rubbish and people started socialising indoors in each other’s homes again. Schools can’t be helping but like others have said you’d expect Scotland to be ahead and a more uniform increase across the country.

I am not aware of a single school affected in my area, and am yet to come across anyone who has tested positive.

The key question with schools is not "are there any children testing positive in schools" but "is Covid spreading between pupils in schools". It may be that it is but I don't think we have evidence for that yet.

Cases started to rise before schools went back, it seems likely to me that community spread is driving the rise and schools are incidental.

Our school has 1 positive case and didn't close the bubble.
A different school near here has 2 positive cases and sent one year group home.

Schools are dangerous IMO. I would prefer my secondary age dc on remote learning, whether that is live lessons or sent work.

Our state secondary school are doing brilliantly with staggered starts, breaks and leaving. Kids move classrooms infrequently and masks to be worn in all communal areas (we are in the SW so not a requirement). Regular Hand washing and sanitising reminders.

Yes, there is likely to be in school transmission but I agree it's more of a reflection of what is going on in the local community rather than the cause of it.

Why then has this massive, massive increase coincided with schools opening?

Why isn't it schools?

Genuine question.

I'm in the North East in lock down again, whilst at the same time in close contact with 700+ people per week at work as a teacher, with no social distancing or PPE, so I'm struggling to compute what's going on at the moment...

Schools have been back for maybe two weeks? Max? It would take much longer than that for a real change to be seen if schools were the driver. The virus has an average incubation period of 5 days. The seeds for these increases were sown weeks ago, well before schools went back.

If everything had ticked along followed by a slow rise in mid/late October that would be more indicative of schools driving the increase in my view.

Yup.

Cases have gradually been increasing since reaching the lowest point in June. The sudden jump occurred on the 6th of September. I'm sure it's just coincidence though

There has been a big increase in my area in the last couple of weeks but no positive cases in schools that I have heard of - nothing in local news about bubbles being sent home. It seems to be working age mostly young adults at the moment.

People as a whole simply don't care that much anymore. That's why the massive rise. Most things have reopened and most people aren't being diligent. Couple that with a terrible test and trace and you get a big rise.

People will only start to care again if it gets bad enough that they can see themselves there is a real impact