Are schools the reason for the surge?

[NebularNerd]

Thousands of people mixing daily with no social distancing.

Children pass the virus on, as BJ has said recently (despite previously saying otherwise).

Surely even if other measures are put in place, the numbers will continue to rise?

Are schools behind the surge?

Italian schools only went back last Monday and they were already having a surge then.

It’s because schools opened in the wrong way. Every country that opened schools fully saw this rise. Countries who opened with distancing didn’t.

Blame the government, the mail, the militant parents’ groups and everyone who campaigned for full schools as usual.

The rise in cases and hospitalisation is their fault. As is the thousands of kids isolating and suffering disrupted education right now.

@Keepdistance @2X4B523P

But you would need far more than 3 cycles to be seeing the sorts of numbers that we are seeing. You would need to be seeing whole classes testing positive with clear transmission between pupils not 1 or 2 children here or there.

I'm not actually against the idea that schools are a possible location of spread for Covid, I think it's entirely possible it will transpire that it's an issue, but the timing of this increase just don"t work. If it had happened 4/6 weeks after schools opened I'd say the connection seemed more probable. As things stand the timings make it less likely that schools are driving community spread and more likely that the community spread is driving cases in schools in my view.

My kids school seem to think their one way system of walk in at the front entrance and leave at the back (which involves passing through the very small area of the outside of reception to yr2 classes full of these kids' waiting parents) is magnificent. There's another way parents can leave via a big wide open gate yet they decide we should walk through this built up area instead.

It's no wonder covid has spread so quickly since the kids went back with dim ideas like this.

It’s difficult for me to believe it’s only schools or keeping schools shut prevents it if so then why were their such surges in Spain and France (and Florida and other states) over the summer when schools were shut (Spain had reached 10,000 cases a day before schools opened)

I think an argument favoured here that we just need to shut schools and all be fine ignores that we are not seeing evidence for that globally.

There seems to be very little in the mainstream press re schools affected but we know from independent sources many are already. That’s without the cases where parents claim it’s just a cold, those that can’t get a test and where bubbles aren’t closed.

Germs have always spread rapidly through schools, surely it’s giving the virus exactly what it wants by putting so many back together with no protections in place.

In my area I know of three secondary schools and two primary schools have cases but they tend to be one or two children each.

In the same area there are four working men’s clubs responsible for 15-18 cases each. Yet our local lockdown has both schools and pubs open while you can’t visit your grandparents in the next street.

No they are not. We know that for two reasons. First the timing is wrong. The surge started right at the end of August and it takes 5 days from date of infection to test positive. This is of course when people will have come back from holiday.

A second piece of evidence is when they do track and trace for the local surges they don’t find it came from schools.

It’s much more likely that it came from people not socially mixing any more and some from people coming back from holiday.

I think the govt should have banned travel to high risk countries rather than this 14 day quarantine thing which A lot people aren’t complying with.

It doesn’t fit the agenda of many to say that the rise in cases began before schools went back.

It is clear that schools being open will affect the R rate.

But they have been open for max 3 weeks. The exponential rise started then.

What is clear is the lack of available testing will cause issues because positive cases will not be identified early allowing spread?

It just seems strange that so many want schools to close so they can socialise.

It’s much more likely that it came from people not socially mixing any more and some from people coming back from holiday.

I meant not socially distancing of course.

It’s a perfect storm of testing not set up for thr amount of people needing to test, schools returning with minimal measures in place, people getting complacent and lax about behaviour and thinking it’s gone away, everyone told to go back to work, returning holidaymakers, weather getting chillier so more inside socialising, everything opening up and life becoming much more normal so old habits slipping back. I think school measures of the bubble system could be effective if community transmission is relatively low and testing is working. As transmission increases and we don’t have a hold on testing it’s really really not looking good.

And I have excluded Scotland when I say schools are back for 3 weeks.

Scottish schools went back mid August and funnily enough the 1st couple of weeks had kids off with colds similar to England, but the actual virus does not seem to have spread like wildfire through schools.

Oh, and now universities are all heading back, which really won’t help matters.

@Sunshinegirl82

I am not aware of a single school affected in my area, and am yet to come across anyone who has tested positive.

The key question with schools is not "are there any children testing positive in schools" but "is Covid spreading between pupils in schools". It may be that it is but I don't think we have evidence for that yet.

Cases started to rise before schools went back, it seems likely to me that community spread is driving the rise and schools are incidental.

Absolutely

Yes schools will have contributed to this along with calls to eat out and return to the office etc. The Government now accepts that children can transmit and that Covid is associated with aerosol transmission but still allowed classes of 30 crammed into poorly ventilated classrooms with no masks. It was never going to end well...

If we want schools to stay open for longer with reduced spread then we are going to have to mask up whether we like it or not...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907587/s0643-nervtag-emg-role-aerosol-transmission-covid-19-sage-48.pdf

More importantly-no testing

Rubbish, school children who go to Eton (and other top schools) got tested before school started and as we are all in this together, testing for ALL children has taken place, i feel sure of this :)

Schools are very defined populations and whilst transmission in school is impossible to stop, once cases have been identified contact tracing is easy

No more so than in the workplace and that has proven to be a failure, with results taking too long and limited testing.
Italy already has a 30 minute rolled out.

Everything done is introduced too little, too late (making self isolation a legal requirement or help for those on low incomes, £250 pw is not enough) its a bottle of wine for Sunak.
These things should have been done months ago.

Cases started to rise before schools went back, it seems likely to me that community spread is driving the rise and schools are incidental

Asymptomatic children going home and spreading CV to adults contributing to "community spread" ?

Lost count of the number of coughs and colds my DD used to give me, when she was at school.

Like someone above days, if it were schools alone, you'd expect to see the same rate of rise across all counties. Some counties had a fall in cases this past week.

@FlamingoAndJohn

Yes. Children in small spaces. Adults trying to keep their distance as much as they can but it’s not always possible. Poor cleaning (I’m watching to see how many weeks the two dead flies stay on the window sill). But it’ll be blamed on one man not self isolating after a holiday properly.

Move the flies yourself. That is pretty grim to 'watch' them. Surely better ways of taking note of poor cleaning?

No schools in my are closed SE but a real hit on the testing system as every child with a cold needed one to be back in the classroom.
Schools reopening I think is one of many factors- lots of people back at work, commuting, busy bars and restaurants.

Schools should never have been fully reopened but there needs to be some f2f time for ALL children. The choice of certain year groups last time was a show pony for non parents.
Around our way many bars, restaurants and cafes were rammed - groups of less than 6 but sitting back to back!

• Holidays abroad.

• Large gatherings ie protests, football parades, beaches etc.

• People not social distancing when they meet with friends and family.

• So many people saying it's all over or a hoax because the numbers of cases and death rate was low (clearly unable to understand what lockdown achieved and that cases take a while to start to build up again after successfully getting to a low level. Even now people are still saying that there's not many people dying as for some inexplicable reason they still can't comprehend it takes a while from catching it to actually dying from it!)

• People returning to work and not distancing- every shop I go into has staff far too close together and many don't wear masks.

• Teens and those in their 20s meeting up as usual.

That all got the sparks going and now the cases are sadly properly taking hold. Hospital admissions are rising so death rates will also rise. I generally think about 1% of the daily recorded cases will die so we'll soon be up to about 40+ a day. That will steadily increase if cases continue to rise and when we hit 100+ a day those that keep saying but no one is dying might finally shut up.

Schools will add to it and Universities definitely will. However, it had already started before the children went back

No.

Tracks back to August. Eat out to help out, foreign holidays, pubs, socialising indoors, people back at work and using public transport / going about their normal lives.

Purely anecdotal evidence but I don't think it's schools (yet!)

I think it's the people not quarantining from abroad
People having parties - friend Had a 40th 3 weeks ago and invited 40'odd people. I was incredibly supposed at least 20 I know of said yes.

Basic rules not being followed. We started ds at rugby 2 weeks ago. Haven't been back as the promised sanitize every 15 mins didn't happen. Not did limiting the group to 20. Too many parents mixing for my liking.

No - or at least, not yet. On Sunday 6th September was when the UK recorded almost 3000 new cases. That was a huge leap, since we’d previously hovered around the 1500s.

A good proportion of those 3000 people contracted the virus five or more days before they started showing symptoms. Then probably didn’t get tested for another 24 hours at least, then another 24-48hrs before they got their results. The rise in infections was definitely bubbling up by mid-August.

Schools hadn’t even been back for a week at that point. Only now will we really start to see their effect on infections.