Are schools the reason for the surge?

[NebularNerd]

Thousands of people mixing daily with no social distancing.

Children pass the virus on, as BJ has said recently (despite previously saying otherwise).

Surely even if other measures are put in place, the numbers will continue to rise?

Are schools behind the surge?

Contributing factor to community spread.

So, if low community rates, schools less affected. High community rates, schools more affected. That's what PHE told my school when we were getting advice on our risk assessment and opening plans.

We have high % of community living in multigeneration households. This was added as a factor when we were deciding on bubble size and staggered drop offs/pick ups. More important to avoid more households mixing. No cases in my school, but cases in other schools in my city.

What we're seeing is absence due to anxious parents - probably due to multigenerational living arrangements - so inadvertently are getting smaller classes, so less household mixing.

Cases have been rising since august so I don't see how you can blame schools. I live in wales my dd didnt go back till the 9th Sept. My nephew lives in england and he didn't go back until the 6th. My sister works in a school and they went back on the 3rd. None of these would link up to the surge of cases. My sister and nephew live in a lockdown area so I imagine in that area the cases are because of community transmission.
I am not concerned about schools leading to an increase. I am much more concerned about university's. My dd school is doing it's best, class bubbles, staggered arrival and pick up times for each bubble, staggered break times. Playground has actually being separated into areas to make it easier etc. I am yet to see anything from the local uni about how they are going to manage to do social distancing on the arrival weekend.

Looking at the age of the new cases (highest is 20-24 age group) I’d guess it’s pubs/socialising rather than schools.

I thought it was 17-24, which includes sixth formers.

20-24 year olds don't just socialise! Most go to work.

My area has no positive case. School open and no increased cases. So, I don't think you can simply blame it all on school opening. If there is a virus, it will just find the ways to spread, school is one of the place. The person who spread in school got it somewhere.

No.. Too early and has anyone forgotten that the biggest spread is in people in their 20s? So less likely to have school-aged children.

People socialising indoors with family and friends and going to pubs.

Obviously things are spreading in schools but as PP said, if community transmission had been lower, so would schools.

They never should have opened pubs (at least not indoors) and kept socialising to outdoors only - should have thought ahead and prioritised education.

Some schools are keeping positive cases very quiet and out of the media. In my area I know of two schools with a positive case who have kept it quiet, not told parents and have with the guidance of PHE not closed bubbles. In one case, staff were told there has been no contact between a teacher and any student or other staff member. How can this possibly be true??

I don’t think it’s schools to be honest. Schools are very defined populations and whilst transmission in school is impossible to stop, once cases have been identified contact tracing is easy.

Exactly. Yes there have been positive cases in schools and bubbles closing etc but there haven't been many actual outbreaks where it has spread rapidly through the school and then all those kids have taken it home, has there? Because of the bubble system and contact tracing within the school. Plus they have only been back a couple of weeks.

It's because of lockdown easing. It was inevitable that this would happen. And it's going to be so much harder now, because we are coming into winter and people already have compliancy fatigue from the first lockdown.

Actually that’s the case for England but not Scotland. The non labled chart with fewer categories is Scotland here

ginny, I don't disagree that unis are a concern, having been saying so for ages, but I think the unis themselves are trying measures : the bars and facilities are often closed, the halls have visitor limits, the student drop off on arrival is one adult only with limits on time slots. Lectures are mainly online (it is student and political pressure in a lot of cases that is creating in person teaching!). there are one way systems and one in one out toilets on campuses and hand gel everywhere. Students will still socialise but at least limits should be in place where they can be.

I personally think it was rishi’s eat out scheme that has sparked this increase, obviously schools going back full time contributes but what can you do? We can’t stop educating children until a vaccine arrives!

That is far more helpful than England greyish. Does therefore show a lot of cases in the older teen age group though!

I think as PP, schools reflect the community. In the next couple of weeks though that's going to become circular as schools reflect, possibly bring the virus in, spread and then take it back to the community.

My school have had 3 confirmed cases now, but parents wouldn't know unless their child was sitting within 2m of the infected child on the seating plan.

Said children weren't in any of my classes because I haven't been informed who they are (only staff affected have and they have been asked not to share names with other staff)

This seems to be a petri dish to me. I may well have come into contact with those children just not on the tt. But I don't know.

Locally to me, cases were in single figures throughout August. In fact we had several days at 0 cases.

Now we are at over 80 between middle of August and middle of September. The reason being there was a breakout at a construction site where 70 people have been tested as positive. All mixing together - no distancing - passing it to one another. A bit like a school.

Problem being of course that before they were tested, they were shopping and socialising and no doubt sending their kids back to school. The construction site is also a reflection of the community and probably a decent comparison of what might happen in similar circumstances in a school with equally poor measures of distancing (not all schools, I understand that - but some!)

The person who spread in school got it somewhere

That is not the question : the question is how far schools enable spread. The jury is out at the moment.

Schools are also workplaces. There are several cases of spread amongst staff. There may well be asymptomatic children and teachers within these settings. Contact tracing isn't actually working to establish the zero case in schools, even in larger outbreaks.

Yes. Community and family transmission initially, but the child then spreads it in school, so it then transmits like wildfire, as schools are pétri dishes for germs, even when extra hygiene measures are in place. Other children then take it home to families and their families get ill. Yes.

I can't believe there are still people in denial about it spreading in schools. It's ridiculous. Of course it is spreading in schools.

I don't think so... because there are still so few cases in schools. In my council there are about 60 schools and there's only been 3 confirmed cases in them- that's for staff and pupils.

No. In my area, which has been on the government watch list for high cases, the schools went back late and the rise in cases had started before that.
There's been a positive case in one of my DC bubbles. They all isolated of course but no other child in the class or teacher has caught it (most were tested.) If the school environment was so perfect for spreading then why aren't they all catching it? I've heard only of single cases in schools so far.

If you look at the latest PHE data it has tests by age range.

It also really helpfully has tests of other communicable diseases. Rhinovirus has gone through the absolute roof in children. Many, many of these kids are getting tests for Covid because it's really hard for parents to know what their child is suffering from.

Yet Covid rates in children have not gone through the roof.

@Dorual

I can't believe there are still people in denial about it spreading in schools. It's ridiculous. Of course it is spreading in schools.

Where is the denial? People here are suggesting that it could be spreading in schools but they have not been back long enough for us to know for sure.

The OP asked if schools were the reasons for the surge.

Surely it’s not helpful in your part if you are putting the blame on schools when the evidence is there that the surge started before schools went back.

We can only be days led so on a few weeks time it should be clearer.

data led

"They all isolated of course but no other child in the class or teacher has caught it (most were tested.) "

That seems unusual in that in the vast majority of cases pupils are told to self isolate and a test is pointless unless they go on to develop symptoms.

Plus of course lots of people with symptoms can end up just self isolating as tests are hard to come by.

It will be hard to tell if coronavirus is spreading in schools with the testing system in such a mess.

From The Guardian:
‘The ONS figures also confirm that, in the week that schools returned in England, cases appear to be have risen most among primary-school-age children and adults under the age of 35.’

Surely testing was supposed to spot and stop, asymptomatic cases?

I'm sure schools particularly secondary and FE are massively helping to fuel the spread because bubbles are massive, sd is not possible, masks in corridors, are all placebos, better than nothing, but my dd is in a 200 strong bubble, then that connects to her how many people in the community? Including teachers? All breathing in each others breath...

I know a school with half a dozen cases so it must be the school right? No! They had all been out partying together before they went back.

However schools have been a source of infection between staff who are not social distancing from each other like they should.