Are schools the reason for the surge?

[NebularNerd]

Thousands of people mixing daily with no social distancing.

Children pass the virus on, as BJ has said recently (despite previously saying otherwise).

Surely even if other measures are put in place, the numbers will continue to rise?

Are schools behind the surge?

I think the government has schools on one of the scales and the economy on the other. If the economy crashes we are all in a world of pain. So workers need to be in work and not having to stay at home because they need to look after their kids because schools have shut. But then it is also impossible to socially distance in schools, or obey the recommendations which are, interestingly, peppered with the phrase "where possible". I think the government has chosen the economy over the risk of COVID being spread in schools. It's a lose-lose either way whilst we're in the midst of it, and maybe they think that the outcome on the other side when we emerge from this will be sunnier if we protect the economy now.

I suppose I'm saying that the schools being open will surely add to the number of cases! But closing schools will also lead to a fairly bleak time. Recession isn't pretty.

Yes it's mostly down to schools in my opinion, children do not present like adults or are asymptomatic in some cases. They are spreading it to adults, who are spreading it because all the pubs etc are open.

I don’t think it’s just schools. I think a big element will be socialising and people being less careful but also getting fed-up.

I do think though that September represented a big change. It wasn’t just schools that went back but activities and more people started working on offices again once there was childcare. My daughter has gone from small bubble childcare with no activities to 30 in a class, swimming and ballet lessons, husband has been back to the office, I’ve been doing baby classes. Suddenly our interactions as a family rose massively in September and while school was a contributing factor (ie childcare) it wasn’t the only thing.

We're in a low(ish) incidence area generally but still have 20+ schools full or partially closed due to confirmed cases.

There's no way it won't spread through the schools once it's in AND there were no tests available hardly anywhere this week.! 60% availability in my area (see The Times yesterday for the national map) So there WILL be more people in the community with it than we know - and schools are communities.

Of course, the rise is not all down to schools - it's partly too early - but some of it IS parents being lax the couple of weeks beforehand (so many kids telling me they've been having sleepovers in the holidays) because Boris told them kids can't spread it and will be safe in school. So, that's an indirect causation.

Can't be a coincidence that we have large numbers of people coming back from holidays in Europe, people going to the office and children going back to school...and a spike in cases.

No they aren't. Getting people stuffed back into offices, restaurants, pubs and going abroad on holiday is the cause.

No I think it's the pubs and restaurants, people in airports/flying and people mixing without distancing.
There's only been a few cases in my area and only one in a school. There are bound to be some cases in schools - it's a big chunk of the population - but I don't think it's the main reason for increase in cases overall.

I’m not convinced it is schools. I agree it is plausible, but have they had outbreaks at school where 10 people who have not seen much of each other outside, all got it?

@Timeforanotherusername

And I have excluded Scotland when I say schools are back for 3 weeks.

Scottish schools went back mid August and funnily enough the 1st couple of weeks had kids off with colds similar to England, but the actual virus does not seem to have spread like wildfire through schools.

This is also worth looking at

No doubt schools are playing a part but with & eating out more so:

Stephen Reicher @ReicherStephen

Todays National Statistics make for very interesting reading.
They confirm the argument that infections are spiking not so much because the public are behaving badly but because they are following bad policy set by the government...

93% of people report wearing facemasks,
81% say they are avoiding physical contact with others,
only 13% of people say they have socialised with more than 10 people
and only 14% of people say they have socialised with more than 2 households.

Most people are following the rules.

By contrast, the proprtion of people working at work has risen to some 60%
while the numbers working from home has halved to some 20%

• even though figures suggest that half of all workplaces are not socially distanced.

Similarly the number of people going out, drinking out and eating out ('to help out') has risen sharply -
eating out from some 10% to nearly 40%.
It has dropped in the last week, but remains much higher than before.

In sum, the numbers getting exposed to infection because they are doing what the Government is telling them to do
vastly outweighs the number being exposed by breaking COVID restrictions.
And yet the Government blames the public for the situation we are now in.

Schools haven’t been open long enough and it was creeping up before then. Obviously they are now going to be a source of contact in communities.

People have just been mixing more and we’ve been reasonably lax in allowing people to go abroad and back over the summer so may have more people infected with slightly different strains than the one we had circulating In the UK. I really think we should have limited all international travel this year a lot more than we have.

I also think people are exhausted with it and fed up with social distancing etc so some aren’t being so careful now as they were before. I presume that’s why there’s a harder stance about fines etc coming in now. Many people are past the point of obeying to do the right thing.

Rural area of school and, my kids have been back at both primary and secondary since beginning August with no increase in cases or self isolating pupils/teachers. There is a small pocket in a town about 20 miles away found amongst the local football team but other than that the last small pocket was back in June. They seem to be squashing them easily enough and we have had very few cases/deaths throughout hopefully it continues this way.

I work in community nursing and remember being terrified in March that we would be nursing loads of people with it palliatively, thankfully we never had a single person on our case load

Just thinking about a new lock down makes me gibber a bit, but if the schools stay open it’ll at least be bearable.

*scotland that should say

I’m in a very low virus level area 7schools I know of are affected and that’s after 2weeks. Schools are a driving factor but there are many others. Witty said back in August we had reached our limit in opening up but what did the government do-continue to open up without modifying anything else.

It was obvious cases would rise in September and if it wasn’t to anyone they are obviously living on a wing and prayer. At least 2/3 weeks before the government should have used a bit of foresight. The test and trace system far from up to scratch so other measures should have been rolled back to lower the infection rate eg extra measures in pubs/restaurants like a curfew, reducing the amount of contacts you can see, countries such as Zante on the no-go list. The messaging from the government should be explicit the more people you see the more likely to catch/pass on Covid.

Schools are simply the latest in a long line of reasons why the rates are increasing, not the sole cause. Rates have been rising since early July, coinciding with the slow relaxing of measures in June. Rates through mid-end August with the general increased mixing from summer holidays either at home or abroad, and rates through late Aug-early Sept with EOTHO, summer holiday returns and, by this point, serious levels of compliance fatigue. Personally I don't think we've even begun to see the true extent of the rise from school returns yet, it'll get far worse imo. As more parents are full-time in the workplace, travelling to work, as universities pour back in the next few weeks, the amount of general mixing is still rocketing.

There is no way out of this where a lot more people don't die. Or become seriously ill. Effective mass immunisation is still probably 6-12 months away, we'll be in and out of varying lockdowns for six months minimum.

@Hollyhead

I think it’s because the weather in August was rubbish and people started socialising indoors in each other’s homes again. Schools can’t be helping but like others have said you’d expect Scotland to be ahead and a more uniform increase across the country.

This is interesting - I read this and thought 'What? The weather was amazing all August!'. But that's because I live in SE England where the weather was amazing, and we, along with the majority of the SE have low incidence (8 per 100,000). So yes, this could well be the reason why there is a north-south divide in cases.

I agree with PP that the surge is too early to be down to schools reopening, I fear the increases due to that are still to come in the next couple of weeks.

There's lots of SocDis at DC schools.
But just wait for university students to return. Pfft.

I honestly believe the only reason the numbers are so high is because so many parents/children/teachers are getting tested so they can be back at work/school. I don’t think the actual numbers are any higher than they have been throughout July/August, it’s just more people are testing (which they are as there are no tests available where as in August there were plenty). Clearly if you do more tests, there is a greater chance of getting a positive result?

No, I think it was pubs and restaurants. It was ok at first when people were disciplined but it’s not like that now, people are just acting like it’s normal. Then school started and it went boom. It looks like schools but it’s not, it’s mainly lack of care from a disinterested public and a rubbish government.

Sole cause? No. Contributory factor after BJ told everyone to go on holiday, leave their local areas for days out, eat out and only worry about the economy are the cause.

The cause is, as far as I'm concerned solely down to the inept of BJ and focus on the economy.

Everyone out of their local areas. Then add in schools. Incendiary device.

Could be one reason, but the main source of infection is mixing between households at present.

At my ds's school he is year 11. No bubbles closed this term so far. Two cases in year 8 though. That's all.

I'm in se and rate is below 5/100,000 locally. I will be annoyed at additional restrictions because locally we have all been careful