Are schools the reason for the surge?

[NebularNerd]

Thousands of people mixing daily with no social distancing.

Children pass the virus on, as BJ has said recently (despite previously saying otherwise).

Surely even if other measures are put in place, the numbers will continue to rise?

Are schools behind the surge?

Even if they are what’s the solution? Keeping kids off another 6 months?

@ksohh0

People as a whole simply don't care that much anymore. That's why the massive rise. Most things have reopened and most people aren't being diligent. Couple that with a terrible test and trace and you get a big rise.

People will only start to care again if it gets bad enough that they can see themselves there is a real impact

Yep.

This is why I can’t get worked up about it. All I can do is continue to do what I have done throughout and abide by all the rules. I can’t control whether other people do or not and people can’t be forced to give a shit. That’s how it is.

@2X4B523P

But the virus has an incubation period. 6th September figures (which would have been tests taken on 2/3/4 September) just wouldn't have been enough time for schools to have spread anything.

Positive tests from 2/3/4 September of children in school will have been infections obtained before the schools went back.

Probably too early for to judge the impact of opening schools.

Also not sure what to make of Scottish cases. They started with much lower cases than England but test positivity now over 5%. It does seem to be a consistent increase of cases in Scotland recently especially today whereas the UK figures have fluctuated up and down a bit more. This could be the effect of testing problems though.

what happened to the proactive testing Nicola sturgeon promised for Scottish schools?

I wouldn't think it's schools. We've been back a good few weeks here in Scotland and seeing the same kind of rise as down South. If it had been schools driven then we'd have been ahead.

I'd say its more likely the eat out to help out and easing of restrictions in general combined with a growing dgaf/complacency among the general population.

All lockdown did was press pause. Covid never went away. As things opened back up and people started mixing then cases started rising again (exactly the same as the schools going back and the cold working it's way quickly through all the staff, pupils and families).

Didn’t some schools in the north of the country go back earlier? I’m sure I read that in here.
Combined with schools going back there will also have been quite a few people going back to work (after working from home up to sept because they had the kids at home). The start of term will have meant more people out of the house across the board.

That or either pubs and restaurants.
People have been able to mix in households (with SD) for months and no rise. Every one I know avoided pubs and restaurants when they first opened in July but after 5-6 weeks they seem almost back to normal. In time for the schools going back, so it’s hard to tell.

Beyond frustrating the are blaming small gatherings in homes.

I think cases were starting to rise in the community, the r number was increasing more than was publicised and schools only had a few lip service changes - nothing that would really make them Covid-secure . Boris said schools will go back and didn't give a genuine shit - thankfully a lot of companies pushed back on the whole "come into the office even if you don't have to" or the situation would be a lot worse). He wanted to get schools opening done, and as with Brexit, didn't say "done well". With Scotland, cases in the community and the r number were lower, there was also not such a problem with testing initially (although again, parents were labelled as overcautious for testing) which is why it took longer to rise. Put masses of people together for long periods of time with no social distancing? Wtf did they think was going to happen?

The surge started before they even went back.

I don't think schools are helping but I think it's probably likely that people and their children were mingling in the run up to schools opening because "they'll just be in the same classes together anyway".

Wasn't the surge in Bolton a result of a man not quarantining after his holiday?

Returning holidaymakers? Back to school shopping? House parties, less consistent hand washing and mask wearing, people generally letting down their guard

@Sunshinegirl82

I appreciate the timings are cutting it fine and that children would have already been infected before starting school. Many schools started back on the 1st, (and a few weeks before that in certain parts in England and all of Scotland)(and maybe other places that I'm not aware of) a child who was asymptomatic could of then passed it on to a number of people outside their household, for example, other children, school staff and people on public transport.

Incubation can be only be 2 days which takes us to the 3rd, testing on the 4th and results by the 5th. (Don't quote me but I think the testing system was much better a few weeks ago and with a 24 hour turn around?)

We'll have a clearer picture one way or an another as the days pass.

Please excuse the an on the final sentence.

Yes, absolutely the children are super spreading this to their parents who in turn are spreading it to their parents.
I see so many children/teens without masks - this whole leave the snowflakes kids alone because they don't get ill/are traumatised by wearing a mask approach is plain stupid. They need to wear masks like children in other countries do. Is it any wonder Covid is back?

Well the children are getting it from somewhere themselves. Presumably non mask wearing adults?

www.boycottunsafeschools.co.uk/reported-covid-19-cases/school-cases-after-12-8-20/

Quite a few not updated yet

In our case I don't think so. Too soon.

Our senior school has no-one self-isolating, no-one sick. we have very few cases locally and most of the kids travel by school bus. Very little mixing in playgrounds, parents required to remain in their cars.

If there's a big rise next weekend, that's more likely to be caused by school kids.

Considering france and spain numbers a lot of likely holidays abroad. Obviously some areas already had high rates here too.
But then those people took it into schools.
Some schools already have 8+ people infected.
Its now 1/900 which is 1 in most secondary and maybe every few primary.
Its lots of little things too. Kids not wearing masks on pt and yet they can catch and spread it.
A lot of people have been letting kids play together msybe outside but before kids went back.
8m kids nearly 9k of them a week would be expected to be infected plus teachers.
It only took 4? Weeks till lockdown after feb halfterm.Obviously we have a bit more immunity and holidays more staggered.
I guess maybe priority to those in contact with a case if they get symptoms as then their contacts can be stopped though i guess they shouldnt have any as isolating.

Our primary has been back since 2nd so 18days. Average of 5d means half less than. But by average it would be onto it's third cycle now.
2nd
7th
12th
17th
So easily infecting parents and more in a class

I think schools reopening has added to it obviously but cases were already rising as they naturally would.I think its more a general issue of people getting back to normal, mixing much more inside homes and not distancing, people going back to work, socialising in pubs and bars.

Is it any wonder Covid is back?

It never went away. Also cases are increasing everywhere, including where people wear masks.

My kids and others have done everything asked of them and more. Blaming them is idiotic, simplistic and lazy.

I think cases were already showing an upward trend and schools are always going to be a point of infection but I do wonder how many infections they’re uncovering that would have otherwise gone undetected. Purely because schools have to be so on guard about low level symptoms. I suspect many parents wouldn’t have tested/isolated if it wasn’t for schools requiring it. But then I don’t know what the positive testing rate is for school aged children.

I don’t think it’s schools to be honest. Schools are very defined populations and whilst transmission in school is impossible to stop, once cases have been identified contact tracing is easy.

The numbers are starting to climb but to be honest they’ve been bubbling away for weeks. I think this has much more to do with holidays (home and abroad), pubs and restaurants. There you will get people who wouldn’t normally be mixing in close proximity and testing and tracing doesn’t seem to work.

Teachers are being expected to work with virtually no safety measures in place at all. It is absolutely crazy. I know several people left with permanent health conditions due to Covid, I don’t want this to happen to my dc’s teachers. I don’t think anyone should have to work in conditions like this. Nor do I think families should have to choose between educating their children or risking their health.