Hospitalisations and Intensive Care Figures are rising.

[Nellodee]

People keep saying that although cases are rising, hospitalisations remain low. I don't believe this is true. We need to stop pretending that we can do nothing and everything will turn out fine. Oh, and I'm not being a doom monger, I am sounding the fire alarm. I fucking can't wait to be wrong.

This is from the Guardian:

The daily total for Covid patients being admitted to hospital in England has now passed 150. On 13 September, the most recent day for which a figure is available, it was 153. The previous day it was 143. Only a week ago the numbers were in double figures. The total has not been as high as 150 since early July.

The total number of coronavirus patients in hospital in England has now reached 866. That is the figure for 15 September, up from 782 the previous day. It has not been as high as this since late July.

The number of hospital patients in England receiving mechanical ventilation has now passed 100 again. Today’s figure is 101. It has not been this high since late July.

Well of course hospital cases are rising, the infection rate is rising.

@ssd

Well of course hospital cases are rising, the infection rate is rising.

You would think it was obvious, I grant you. Please excuse the weird capitalisation in the title, by the way. I am tired and fed up today.

Well yes, but how many of those are actually in hospital BECAUSE of Covid, and how many are there for a different reason but also WITH Covid?

You do know the number of patients on ventilators has hardly risen?

I don't know the exact figures for the amount of people on ventilators. Do you have them? It says in that article that they are at their highest since late July, but I don't know what that was. What appears to be absolutely the case, however, is that the trend is upwards. Non-serious cases are not rising independently of other, more serious repercussions, they are just lagging behind. After all, why wouldn't serious cases increase, as overall cases increase?

Because viruses tend to mutate over time and become less deadly if we go by previous trends. There were around 70 - 80 patients in ventilator beds a few weeks ago, there are currently 106. I work in a hospital and can tell you a change of 20/30 in the whole of the country is nothing! Do you know how many cancer deaths there are per DAY in the U.K.?

Once you're actually in hospital, the "with/of Covid" is pretty much irrelevant.

I'm sure several hundred people didn't test positive for COVID weeks ago and then happen to get run over by buses this week

I agree op,. Getting very fed up with the BBC in particular constantly reiterating that although cases are rising deaths aren't. They know there is a 2-4 week lag and admissions are rising.
I feel like we've reverted right back to March, wash your hands, sing Happy birthday keep your distance and you won't get it. That didn't work in March and it won't work now.

Not sure what the answer is but I think id be continuing to prioritise outside activities and takeaways over indoors eating and sports.

@Cinderellashoes

Well yes, but how many of those are actually in hospital BECAUSE of Covid, and how many are there for a different reason but also WITH Covid?

You do know the number of patients on ventilators has hardly risen?

Patients on ventilators:

70>74>88>101. 12th to the 15th respectively. (These are the latest figures at time of writing.)

The lowest was 50 people on a ventilator, 5th September. We’ve doubled in under two weeks.

I'm a mathematician. I see a smooth curve and I think, where would that curve be if I extended it for another three weeks into the future? How about six weeks? I don't look at the change in numbers, I look at the gradient and the change in the gradient.

Look at the graphs. Take a pencil, and extrapolate. If we are lucky, the line will not continue along its current path. However, we would be absolute idiots not to look at the possibility that it might.

Cases started to go up mid August. We’re now mid September. The death rate remains really very very low?

Thank you for that, redolent. Those figures are very concerning.

This graph shows the coronavirus CASES over the last month

So what should happen?

And this one shows DEATHS in the last month

@Cinderellashoes

Cases started to go up mid August. We’re now mid September. The death rate remains really very very low?

So, you're prepared to concede that case figures are going up. Hospitalisations started going up a little later. Ventilator usage started going up after that. But because death figures haven't started going up YET, you're going to hang on to that.

ooooookaaaay

@WhoWants2Know

Once you're actually in hospital, the "with/of Covid" is pretty much irrelevant.

I'm sure several hundred people didn't test positive for COVID weeks ago and then happen to get run over by buses this week

I'm trying to work out what you mean by this, what do people run over by buses (less than double figures per year I believe) have to do with the increase in hospital admissions?

Try again!
I’m no mathematician but I am a nurse so I’ve seen first hand.

There is no upward curve on the death graph is there? The line remains very low toward the bottom, yes, with occasional spikes here and there, but that’s how it goes with any disease

What should happen?

Ensure people who isolate don't end up losing their jobs and getting evicted. Find a way to make isolating possible. Protect people from poverty. Stop students going back to university NOW.

Cinderella - if deaths were to rise, would you expect that to happen before, or after, a rise in ventilator usage?

Here’s the trend for patients who are testing positive for coronavirus and are on ventilators. They aren’t necessarily ventilated BECAUSE of Covid. 100 in the whole of the U.K.? Literally such a small number..

@Nellodee

What should happen?

Ensure people who isolate don't end up losing their jobs and getting evicted. Find a way to make isolating possible. Protect people from poverty. Stop students going back to university NOW.

I agree with all that except stopping students going back to uni.

The government made a huge mistake making isolating only possible for the well off.

It’s the time of year for flu and other bugs etc. Even without the existence of covid the number of patients on ventilation would be increasing week on week.

So unless it’s known they’re on ventilators specifically due to covid and not pneumonia/flu etc then the data is worthless

I’d expect it to occur at all of those time points. some patients will die before they are ventilated, some will be ineligible for ventilator treatment, some will be ventilated for months and recover and some will not. What I would expect is, patient admissions for patients testing positive for coronavirus go up, if they are sick as back in March/April, they’d be ventilated straight away, or at least within a week or two. But that hasn’t happened has it?

Lectures are one person, stood a long way in front of an audience. They can be done without the audience. There is very little participation.

I understand essay subjects meet in small groups, these could be done on zoom.

I feel awful for Freshers not getting to live away from home, but they can get an education without that.