Hospitalisations and Intensive Care Figures are rising.

[Nellodee]

People keep saying that although cases are rising, hospitalisations remain low. I don't believe this is true. We need to stop pretending that we can do nothing and everything will turn out fine. Oh, and I'm not being a doom monger, I am sounding the fire alarm. I fucking can't wait to be wrong.

This is from the Guardian:

The daily total for Covid patients being admitted to hospital in England has now passed 150. On 13 September, the most recent day for which a figure is available, it was 153. The previous day it was 143. Only a week ago the numbers were in double figures. The total has not been as high as 150 since early July.

The total number of coronavirus patients in hospital in England has now reached 866. That is the figure for 15 September, up from 782 the previous day. It has not been as high as this since late July.

The number of hospital patients in England receiving mechanical ventilation has now passed 100 again. Today’s figure is 101. It has not been this high since late July.

You do know the number of patients on ventilators has hardly risen?

It's increased 250% in the last week in Wales. Hospital admissions have doubled

@Cinderellashoes Great posts👍

@EDSGFC

Did you watch the Andy Burnham clip? He's talking about door-to-door, face-to-face testing and contact tracing. Proper boot leather epidemiology.

So how do you trace the tube passenger that I sat next to, or if during rush hour stood pressed up against, for an hour three days ago if I now test positive today?

That's the kind of situation where a tracing app would be useful. We don't just give up because we don't have one. Even if we had one - a decent one that most people were prepared to use - it still would not be 100% effective because not everyone will use it.

Even the best contact tracing system will not catch every single contact.

That's also the sort of situation that simply should not be happening at the moment. If you are finding yourself pressed up against others on packed tubes then that's a problem in itself, however good testing, contact tracing and isolation arrangements are. We still need to do basic social distancing and will for a long time yet.

@justchecking1

You do know the number of patients on ventilators has hardly risen?

It's increased 250% in the last week in Wales. Hospital admissions have doubled

Also increasing daily in the NW

@RedToothBrush

PERHAPS rather than moving all these doctors and nurses around the country, it would be better to expend testing capacity in the North West which currently has 25 % of cases. The North West currently has just 15% of testing capacity.

People in the hot spots cant get a test. There just aren't any available.

I ordered a postal test two weeks ago - it came from Glasgow (I'm in London) and was returned to Glasgow so it shouldn't matter where you live and where test capacity is with regards postal tests. Why don't they send them out and return them to wherever has capacity?

That's also the sort of situation that simply should not be happening at the moment. If you are finding yourself pressed up against others on packed tubes then that's a problem in itself, however good testing, contact tracing and isolation arrangements are. We still need to do basic social distancing and will for a long time yet.

How do you avoid it? Interested to hear - I've got a 9am appointment at a central London hospital tomorrow. No option but to travel by tube, in the rush hour. I've not been anywhere other than work since shielding ended so can't say I'm feeling good about being on a tube in rush hour so any tips to avoid being stood squashed against someone else will be eagerly received.

"Marseille has very specific demographics and social factors that largely explain the current issue."

Someone upthread made this point- what does it mean?

@Miljea

"Marseille has very specific demographics and social factors that largely explain the current issue."

Someone upthread made this point- what does it mean?

Overcrowded housing and large percentage of BAME people?

@Nellodee

Yes, yes it is comparable.

We've been here. We've done this once already.

If we don't alter our behaviour to somewhere between where we were before pubs and shops open and where we are now, cases will continue to increase, followed by hospitalisations, followed by deaths.

That's the train that's coming, with all it's accompanying job losses and personal tragedies. If we lock down, we lose jobs, if we do nothing, we still lose them through everyone avoiding catching this virus. No-one over 50 is going to be eating out if we have 1000 deaths a day, lockdown or no lockdown. No-one is going to be getting cancer care if the hospitals are bursting with Covid cases, lockdown or no lockdown. The way to avoid the train is not to "be over this", it is to limit social interactions drastically and support those whose livelihood is affected by these limitations.

We need to change what we are doing. I think most people agree with that in principal, but then when you talk about the specifics, like blended education, or closing pubs, people think the price is too dear. However, there is a price to doing nothing and it is just as dear. We each need to look at our own lives and decide what, if anything, we can prune back over winter.

If we do not reduce social interactions ourselves, the government, or the virus, will do it for us.

Great post. I think it bears repeating now.

It's like the second Mumsnet wave of denial!

Building and building, a black wall of denial. It makes me feel like I'm losing my mind...