Hospitalisations and Intensive Care Figures are rising.

[Nellodee]

People keep saying that although cases are rising, hospitalisations remain low. I don't believe this is true. We need to stop pretending that we can do nothing and everything will turn out fine. Oh, and I'm not being a doom monger, I am sounding the fire alarm. I fucking can't wait to be wrong.

This is from the Guardian:

The daily total for Covid patients being admitted to hospital in England has now passed 150. On 13 September, the most recent day for which a figure is available, it was 153. The previous day it was 143. Only a week ago the numbers were in double figures. The total has not been as high as 150 since early July.

The total number of coronavirus patients in hospital in England has now reached 866. That is the figure for 15 September, up from 782 the previous day. It has not been as high as this since late July.

The number of hospital patients in England receiving mechanical ventilation has now passed 100 again. Today’s figure is 101. It has not been this high since late July.

We are now in the grip of maths & biology. It doesn’t matter that we can’t afford to lockdown again, or you need schools open or want a big Christmas...the virus will just do its thing regardless as long as we give it opportunities to spread. That means rising cases = increased hospitalisations = increased deaths PLUS the as yet unquantified burden of Long Covid & long term complications. It’s maths. We can slow the maths by the actions we take.

but then when you talk about the specifics, like blended education, or closing pubs, people think the price is too dear.
Thing is, I don't think the public do think the price of that is too dear. I think that's the government.
In my opinion restaurants and pubs should be made to go back to 2m distancing, with ventilation and no air con.
The govt decided 1m on economic grounds, they know that isn't safe.
Blended learning/rotas at school- most parents I know are broadly supportive. The government made a political statement all kids would go back - that's what has happened, the price is no social distancing. Again, the government know that isn't safe.

It totally baffles me why they take the decisions they do. There appears to be no strategy or joined up thinking and we are all going to pay the price from an economic and health point of view.

And that’s not even taking into account seasonality - how will this virus kick off when the temperature drops?

To be frank cases have been increasing since July 6th and there has been no significant increase in people in hospital or deaths. Germany and France are seeing the same thing. Let’s hope this continues.

We simply cannot afford another lockdown with the financial and health effects it would bring- I’d propose a 3 point plan that is practical and affordable:

1. The reintroduction of shielding- this should be done on an optional basis, with the government paying wages and ensuring things like food deliveries are provided.

1. Hospital capacity to be ‘run hot’- we need to be making full use of all available capacity, including the Nightingale hospitals which have never been used.

1. All NHS staff to be put on ‘emergency contracts’ for 6 months- these would allow them to be relocated anywhere in the U.K. with 48 hours’ notice. This would allow us to respond to local flare-ups as they happen.

I would also like to see an NHS ‘flying squad’ created that could be mobilised immediately to areas where there are specific issues with high case numbers or hospital capacity.

Blended learning/rotas at school- most parents I know are broadly supportive

And yet most I know are not because they'd literally have to give up work to accommodate it.

3. All NHS staff to be put on ‘emergency contracts’ for 6 months- these would allow them to be relocated anywhere in the U.K. with 48 hours’ notice. This would allow us to respond to local flare-ups as they happen

NHS staff are humans with families. It would be a logistical fucking nightmare and a massive bloody infection risk too. Awful awful idea.

GeneGenie Does your work lend itself to distancing? If you have lunch with someone, could you open the windows and leave a bigger gap? If you're already doing all you can, then you can't do any more, obviously!

But if you've decided that you're going to book a table for a friend's birthday and meet up with four old uni pals for dinner, then you can prune.

If you live alone and your mental health is in freefall, you may decide that some social interaction is essential.

If you visit an elderly relative with dementia who is deteriorating quickly, then you may choose to break guidelines, based on your experience of the last lockdown. I wouldn't blame you.

But if, and I think this is the main group causing problems, you think "Covid is a joke, just because cases increase, deaths won't because someone I know on Facebook says the virus has mutated into a weaker one, look at all those idiots panicking over 100 deaths, more people die of suicide, they think they can cancel death" and right now you are determined that you're not going to let Covid stop you living a normal life any more, then you need to grow up and get a sense of social responsibility.

@Nellodee

GeneGenie Does your work lend itself to distancing? If you have lunch with someone, could you open the windows and leave a bigger gap? If you're already doing all you can, then you can't do any more, obviously!

But if you've decided that you're going to book a table for a friend's birthday and meet up with four old uni pals for dinner, then you can prune.

If you live alone and your mental health is in freefall, you may decide that some social interaction is essential.

If you visit an elderly relative with dementia who is deteriorating quickly, then you may choose to break guidelines, based on your experience of the last lockdown. I wouldn't blame you.

But if, and I think this is the main group causing problems, you think "Covid is a joke, just because cases increase, deaths won't because someone I know on Facebook says the virus has mutated into a weaker one, look at all those idiots panicking over 100 deaths, more people die of suicide, they think they can cancel death" and right now you are determined that you're not going to let Covid stop you living a normal life any more, then you need to grow up and get a sense of social responsibility.

Wow that was viscious and uncalled for wasn't it?

Your assumptions are all wrong.

@Ecosse how can you say that France has seen the same thing (no increase in hospitalisations - in Marseliles they are running out of ICU beds as we speak, in fact it probably happened today?

OP, you’re right, of course you are. I also remember you from the early threads back in February and March. I wasn’t posting then, but read them during night feeds. It’s astonishing that people can be in denial a second time around, after what happened the first time. But I also feel like Cassandra having this conversation with some people.

sunseekin yes, the consensus is that it hasn’t mutated. A clear summary here:

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/covid-red-alert-birmingham-hospitals-18912398

^ Dr Mark Garvey, consultant microbiologist and deputy chief of infection prevention and control for the trust, has studied the virus closely for six months through more than 3,000 patients, and described such claims as "a myth".

"The coronavirus in our patients today is exactly the same now as it was in April, it is exactly the same strain," he said.

"When you look at the mutational frequency of the virus there are very, very small changes - it is essentially exactly the same as it was."

The smaller numbers involved so far are down to lower incidence in the community, due to social distancing, restrictions on gatherings and so on, and a concentration among younger people, he said.

"But the virus itself is still as harmful," he added.

At our peak we had 708 in-patients at one time, of which about one in six were critically ill. We are seeing the same proportion now."^

@Augustbreeze

As I said, there are always going to be local issues with capacity where you have local outbreaks. That’s why you need to be able to move staff and capacity where they’re needed.

Marseille has very specific demographics and social factors that largely explain the current issue.

The current picture across France in terms of deaths and hospitalisation is much potential positive, despite the rising cases.

Sorry, which part of it was vicious and uncalled for? My caricature of the Covid-over-it-er?

I'm bloody sick of them. I'm sick of accusations that people are loving the drama. I'm sick of their refusal to learn from the past and project into the future and above all, I'm sick of the fact that their actions jeopardise all of us.

I am absolutely supportive of people who cannot afford to self isolate. I am absolutely supportive of people with mental health problems.

People who think they are going to pretend this has all gone away and who want to let the vulnerable groups deal with it on their own can go and do one.

All NHS staff to be put on ‘emergency contracts’ for 6 months- these would allow them to be relocated anywhere in the U.K. with 48 hours’ notice. This would allow us to respond to local flare-ups as they happen

I'm sorry. What?!

" 450 patients die EVERY day from cancer."

This number is likely broadly stable and not likely to double every 8 days like covid deaths could.

I think the covid will mutate to be less severe is a potentially dangerous narrative only 9 months in to the pandemic. Yes in some viruses a mutation that makes it less deadly to a host might help that strain more likely to spread and give it an evolutionary advantage.

I am not convinced this is likely to for a virus that already spreads very easily in the population and at the same time kills what 0.5% of its hosts. (Disclaimer: not sure what exact figure is estimated to be for the ifr )

I mean hiv has been around for what 50 years. Is it more or less likely to kill someone today if they don't get any treatment ?

Hospitalisations have been low in lots of places for up to 2 months after cases start to trend up. It has usually started with younger people but I can easily imagine that once the infection rates gets to a certain level infections in older ages starts to rise too. For all we know this might have happened in February too but we don't have the data to compare. Hospitalisations have risen sharply in Bolton amongst middle aged men. How long before some parents of these middle aged people start being admitted too?

@EarlGreywithLemon I wish the virus was mutating into something milder, I really do. That's a sobering interview, though.

Goodnight everyone.

And if you're out and out tomorrow, don't forget to be a lert.

@Greysparkles

There’s no point in having 100 nurses sitting idle in Plymouth who could be staffing a Nightingale hospital in Manchester, for example.

I would liken it to a wartime scenario- you want your soldiers on the battlefield where the action is, not hundreds of miles away.

We need to push the NHS to the maximum of its capacity and capability in order to avoid the catastrophic damage to the economy a second shutdown would cause (we would likely not be able to afford the NHS).

It should be made very clear to NHS staff that they are our first line of defence in this crisis and they should be prepared to be utilised where they are needed.

Blended learning/rotas at school- most parents I know are broadly supportive

Well you clearly know different people from me as I don’t know a single parent who would/could support this (mostly dual income households with young children who were at absolute breaking point during lockdown). Two of my previously mentally robust friends are now on anti-depressants as a result. In a single blow ‘blended’ (ie part-time) learning would set women’s progress in the workplace back by several decades.

People keep saying we are just behind France or Spain, but look on worldometers. Neither have a second spike of deaths - yet.

Deaths just arent going up in line with cases in either France or Spain..who knows what will happen next month, but this uptick isnt following the first peak.

What happens next we can only guess. I heard on the radio today that we are just at the beginning of this pandemic. It that true no one can guess the end graphs. It will play out and we dont know what will be until.its history

[quote Ecosse]@Greysparkles

There’s no point in having 100 nurses sitting idle in Plymouth who could be staffing a Nightingale hospital in Manchester, for example.

I would liken it to a wartime scenario- you want your soldiers on the battlefield where the action is, not hundreds of miles away.

We need to push the NHS to the maximum of its capacity and capability in order to avoid the catastrophic damage to the economy a second shutdown would cause (we would likely not be able to afford the NHS).

It should be made very clear to NHS staff that they are our first line of defence in this crisis and they should be prepared to be utilised where they are needed.[/quote]
I work in a technical part of the NHS and it's impossible to do my job without the specialised equipment. It's not so simple as moving my colleagues or myself to another part of the UK, who is going to train me to use equipment in that hospital? You cannot just lift and put me to work someone else.
Yes I probably could work out how to use the equipment, but if something goes wrong it's the patient who will suffer. I am not comfortable with putting patients at risk.
My state registration body says for me not to work outside of my scope of practice, yet you are wanting to do just that.

Blended learning = schools may as well be shut

I literally do not know a single person (inc teachers) who wants a blended learning option.

This virus is not going anywhere. Suppressing it with another lockdown is just that, just kicking the problem down the road.

Genuine question- those of you who want another lockdown - then what happens in 3 months time when stats are "acceptable" - we release everyone and then have another lockdown three months after that? Is that really what you want for your future/your kids future? For a virus that 99.9% of people survive?

You absolutely can’t expect that from nhs staff. People feel a moral duty anyway and we’re volunteering to go to the covid areas.

It should be made very clear to NHS staff that they are our first line of defence in this crisis and they should be prepared to be utilised where they are needed

Why should we? We're not soldiers.
Who's going to look after my kids if I'm "deployed" 300 miles away?

Would I at least get a pay rise for that.

@EarlGreywithLemon

OP, you’re right, of course you are. I also remember you from the early threads back in February and March. I wasn’t posting then, but read them during night feeds. It’s astonishing that people can be in denial a second time around, after what happened the first time. But I also feel like Cassandra having this conversation with some people.

I was thinking about this yesterday. How ignorance is bliss. It's no fun being the Cassandra.

So you’d like change JDs and issue new contracts during a pandemic- excellent idea.

Would people receive any training or is it just the case of twiddling a few monitors 🙄