Hospitalisations and Intensive Care Figures are rising.

[Nellodee]

People keep saying that although cases are rising, hospitalisations remain low. I don't believe this is true. We need to stop pretending that we can do nothing and everything will turn out fine. Oh, and I'm not being a doom monger, I am sounding the fire alarm. I fucking can't wait to be wrong.

This is from the Guardian:

The daily total for Covid patients being admitted to hospital in England has now passed 150. On 13 September, the most recent day for which a figure is available, it was 153. The previous day it was 143. Only a week ago the numbers were in double figures. The total has not been as high as 150 since early July.

The total number of coronavirus patients in hospital in England has now reached 866. That is the figure for 15 September, up from 782 the previous day. It has not been as high as this since late July.

The number of hospital patients in England receiving mechanical ventilation has now passed 100 again. Today’s figure is 101. It has not been this high since late July.

It's got to be better than just telling 2M+ people to get back in the cupboard for an indeterminate amount of time.

The only way to keep vulnerable people safe until we have a vaccine and ensure we still have an economy left is to protect them (with wages funded by the state)

But we haven't protected vulnerable people. We protected extremely clinically vulnerable people, not vulnerable people.

The vulnerable people category amounted to around 20 million people. No way are government going to pay them to stay at home and no way can society function without them.

@EDSGFC

The only way to keep vulnerable people safe until we have a vaccine and ensure we still have an economy left is to protect them (with wages funded by the state)

But we haven't protected vulnerable people. We protected extremely clinically vulnerable people, not vulnerable people.

The vulnerable people category amounted to around 20 million people. No way are government going to pay them to stay at home and no way can society function without them.

I agree with this exactly!

@LangClegsInSpace

It doesn’t seem like we’re going to have a contact tracing system here anytime soon that is either effective or able to cope with demand, though.

Why not? Why aren't we all demanding it?

Not only are we not demanding it people are protesting against it.

Given that Google, Apple, Facebook etc also no everything about us including where we are, where we've been, what we're looking at online I can't get too worked up at them using the same information to see if I've been exposed to Covid during the day 🤷

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/bolton-sees-rise-covid-hospital-18937074.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Increased Covid19 admissions in Bolton. Middle aged white men.

@EDSGFC

There are not 20 million people at serious risk of death or serious illness from COVID

There are certain groups like men, BAME people and taxi drivers who are at a higher (but still extremely low) risk relative to the rest of the population.

It’s important to remember that even an 80 year old with underlying health conditions has a survival rate of above 90%.

I just had a call from NHS asking me to donate plasma. I had it three weeks ago.

It's not to do with the app though. I don't blame people for not wanting to dl this government's proposed app, I won't be downloading it.

A decent app that protects people's privacy and data as far as possible (like other countries have) can be a useful extra tool but the main job of contact tracing needs to be done by people. This has been the case even in countries with high take up of apps.

Did you watch the Andy Burnham clip? He's talking about door-to-door, face-to-face testing and contact tracing. Proper boot leather epidemiology.

@EducatingArti

Bolton has a very serious local outbreak- these are inevitable and need to be controlled locally.

I would like to see much more flexibility though in regard to NHS staff and resources- these need to be able to be deployed where they’re needed across the country quickly.

We should be able for example to move 100 nurses from Plymouth to Bolton if ICU in Plymouth is empty and there is a need for extra capacity in Bolton.

But it isn't being controlled locally. That is the point

You also can't just move NHS staff around like that as many of them will have caring responsibilities and other reasons to stay near home.

The number of positive cases last week in Bolton has also been revised upwards due to substantial delays in turning around results.

@EducatingArti

In a sense these outbreaks are actually being controlled locally. There are only 35 councils in England (less than 10%) with cases above 50 per 100,000.

Virtually all of these have local measures in place and the vast majority of areas still have low case numbers. So it doesn’t appear to be spreading substantially from the affected areas.

The point I am making is that the local measures are not being effective to stop the increases. I live in Greater Manchester so I am keeping abreast of the figures quite carefully. The only successful containment seems to be in Oldham where they are using volunteer door to door Covid testers.

I'm not sure you can say it isn't spreading either. Warrington is a good example. It had very low cases but is near to other GM areas with much higher ones and is now one of the highest in the country. Spread also seems to be happening to other NW areas around Liverpool too!

[quote Ecosse]@EDSGFC

There are not 20 million people at serious risk of death or serious illness from COVID

There are certain groups like men, BAME people and taxi drivers who are at a higher (but still extremely low) risk relative to the rest of the population.

It’s important to remember that even an 80 year old with underlying health conditions has a survival rate of above 90%.[/quote]
You said vulnerable people.

The government listed who was "vulnerable". That amounted to around 20 million people (I saw various figures citing 18 - 22 million).

You can't just decide to re classify who is vulnerable.

Government decided who falls into that category. Let's see if they decide to change it.

@EDSGFC

The only way to keep vulnerable people safe until we have a vaccine and ensure we still have an economy left is to protect them (with wages funded by the state)

But we haven't protected vulnerable people. We protected extremely clinically vulnerable people, not vulnerable people.

The vulnerable people category amounted to around 20 million people. No way are government going to pay them to stay at home and no way can society function without them.

Spot on!

Did you watch the Andy Burnham clip? He's talking about door-to-door, face-to-face testing and contact tracing. Proper boot leather epidemiology.

So how do you trace the tube passenger that I sat next to, or if during rush hour stood pressed up against, for an hour three days ago if I now test positive today?

"Virtually all of these have local measures in place and the vast majority of areas still have low case numbers."

since local lockdowns were put in place Manchester, infection rates have increased substantially and roughly tripled in many areas.
There appears to be no prospect of their being lifted in the foreseeable future. Geanted We might been even worse off without a local lockdown.

" So it doesn’t appear to be spreading substantially from the affected areas"

If you compare the number of areas with rates of over 30 per 100,000 there are significantly more now than when GM restrictions were put in place. Are the rises in Scotland etc due to carriers from Manchester -no.

But this means that our control on numbers is slipping in increasing number of areas. I am concerned that the testing system will not keep up ( it is probably falling behind already since tests are being diverted to hotspots so emerging ones might be missed)

Move NHS staff around the country as needed?!? Have you not heard about the effects of the last wave on the stress levels of NHS staff? As if you can just require people to up and move around the country to do a difficult job they already don't get paid enough to do.

We should be able for example to move 100 nurses from Plymouth to Bolton if ICU in Plymouth is empty and there is a need for extra capacity in Bolton.
Seriously? And these people’s families/children? Nurses didn’t sign up for this. They’d be well within their rights to vote with their feet and resign.

We should be able for example to move 100 nurses from Plymouth to Bolton if ICU in Plymouth is empty and there is a need for extra capacity in Bolton.

Oh sure. Not like these nurses have got a life and children and dependents is it? What should happen to the children if their mum is a single mum? Just stick them in care so you can deploy mum across the country?

I'd also love to know where there's an ITU that has all of these supernumerary staff just sitting around idly

But this means that our control on numbers is slipping in increasing number of areas. I am concerned that the testing system will not keep up ( it is probably falling behind already since tests are being diverted to hotspots so emerging ones might be missed)
That’s exactly what worries me.

In a sense these outbreaks are actually being controlled locally. There are only 35 councils in England (less than 10%) with cases above 50 per 100,000.

Virtually all of these have local measures in place and the vast majority of areas still have low case numbers. So it doesn’t appear to be spreading substantially from the affected areas.

Virtually all, apart from the ones that dont.

That'll be:
Burnley (restrictions were lifted)
Hyndburn (restrictions were lifted)
Warrington
Knowsley
St. Helens
Liverpool
Wirral
Sunderland
South Tyneside
Gateshead
Leeds
Rossendale
Newcastle upon Tyne
Halton
South Ribble

Virtually all of the 35 apart from 15. Also known at 40% of councils with more than 50 cases per 100,000 not currently under local restrictions.

But yeah hey lets just call it 'virtually all' seeing as we are all friends here

PERHAPS rather than moving all these doctors and nurses around the country, it would be better to expend testing capacity in the North West which currently has 25 % of cases. The North West currently has just 15% of testing capacity.

People in the hot spots cant get a test. There just aren't any available.