Hospitalisations and Intensive Care Figures are rising.

[Nellodee]

People keep saying that although cases are rising, hospitalisations remain low. I don't believe this is true. We need to stop pretending that we can do nothing and everything will turn out fine. Oh, and I'm not being a doom monger, I am sounding the fire alarm. I fucking can't wait to be wrong.

This is from the Guardian:

The daily total for Covid patients being admitted to hospital in England has now passed 150. On 13 September, the most recent day for which a figure is available, it was 153. The previous day it was 143. Only a week ago the numbers were in double figures. The total has not been as high as 150 since early July.

The total number of coronavirus patients in hospital in England has now reached 866. That is the figure for 15 September, up from 782 the previous day. It has not been as high as this since late July.

The number of hospital patients in England receiving mechanical ventilation has now passed 100 again. Today’s figure is 101. It has not been this high since late July.

I agree with you as well OP. And find it incredibly frustrating how anyone who starts a thread like this gets shot down

Idiots

I don't think that at any point of this situation or this debate has hurling around insults been useful. Even the experts can't agree about lots of different aspects of this virus so you can't blame people for talking about things like low death rates. There is lots in the media about there being several factors which will lower the death rate in the future, so we certainly aren't in the same situation as in March.

Ooooh I like that simple response Oaktree

Going by the skyhigh positivity rates back in March-April, it is estimated that cases then were > 100,000 daily, with a peak > 200,000
and the vulnerable elderly were unprotected

We've discussed on the statistics thread that real cases in the Uk and continental Europe back then were about 20-50 x higher than they are now
The average age of infection is now much lower

Hence the low deaths and hospitalisations
Virologists have repeatedly stated that there is no evidence that the virus has mutated to be less severe

Cases would have to get at least 10 x higher than present - and would inevitably spread to the elderly - before Covid deaths start returning to high numbers

However, cases are rising rapidly and we can't predict to what level in winter
Tests are a shitshow and track & trace not working to the required standard

So, most experts expect winter to be much worse than now,
BUT noone can state whether there will be another crisis situation, because it depends on too many factors.

@SecondAttempt ah thanks 😊

Funny that cases started to rise AFTER we have been made to wear masks in shops? Since masks were made mandatory in shops, people don't keep their distance as much. I actually could feel a guys breath on my neck the other day whilst shopping, he got that close!

Being blaze about Covid now isn’t going to help mental health, cancer or the economy over coming months. Neither is panicking and shutting down the economy. As a society we owe it to ourselves, the young, the old, not to screw this up through carelessness or knee jerk reactions.

Surely, none of us are goldfish; all of us can see further than our own nose and must be able to recognise that what happens today has implications for hospitalisations and deaths in 3 to 4 weeks time. It’s only been five-six months since March-April. On 12 March, there was 1 Covid death reported; less than a month later, there was over 1,000. I’m not predicted an exact repeat, but complacency now will make things so much worse than it needs to be in a couple of months.

because now they use cpap rather than vent as first line they also are using a specific steroids - this is experience & trial & error from the last time. On top of this vulnerable patients are being protected both in patients & long distance (via phone etc!) outpatients. Hospitals have protective processes within the hospital. The mistakes of sending vulnerable older patients out to care homes without testing (we hope) won't be repeated. At the moment its younger fitter people being affected but it may (probably will) spread outwards to older& more vulnerable.
Its a ticking time bomb -deaths will probably start to rise in a few weeks

@2X4B523P

Why does vitamin D hardly ever get mentioned? We've only got a few weeks of sufficient UVB radiation from the sun left. That coupled with the increasing cases I think in about a month it's going to be a very different picture unfortunately.

I'm not a medic but this seems eminently sensible to me. Given the known health benefits of VitD and the fact that so many people over the winter in the UK are deficient, shouldn't there be some kind of push for supplementation?

Also, I have been thinking a lot today that public health bodies should really be pushing the benefits of being outside. The summer has shown us that virus transmission is so much less out in the fresh air. Yes we can have miserable weather, however there are countries colder than ours who have far more of an outside lifestyle even in winter. There's nothing we can do except hope for one, but if the winter this year has less floods and gales than last year, people who are able really should be encouraged to get into some suitable clothing and do as much of their socialising outside as possible, when possible.

The benefits of fresh air and natural light can't be overstated.

Was just going to come on to say what the PP said.
At the beginning of all this we didn't just jump to 900 deaths.
The deaths compared to infection was quite low to begin with.

@Cherrygirl3

Funny that cases started to rise AFTER we have been made to wear masks in shops? Since masks were made mandatory in shops, people don't keep their distance as much. I actually could feel a guys breath on my neck the other day whilst shopping, he got that close!

Shops are not a common source of transmission. High risk settings are - hospitals, care homes, private households, food production factories and large indoor gatherings such as religious services, weddings, nightclubs, etc.

What is the point of this scaremongering?
The lockdown will kill more and destroy far more lives than Covid.
Let people live their lives.
Enough already.

If you are lying on a railway track and I say a train is coming, that isn't scaremongering.

@Nellodee

If you are lying on a railway track and I say a train is coming, that isn't scaremongering.

That's not really comparable is it?

Hi again nellodee

You are right, of course. I don’t know if you remember but I was back on the threads in February and early March with you too. Watching Italy and trying to get people to see we were on the same trajectory.

They didn’t want to hear it then and they don’t want to now. I don’t want another lockdown but collectively putting fingers in ears and going “la la la” does not solve this problem.

Shame we have politicians doing the same as so many of the public.

www.itv.com/news/2020-09-15/two-weeks-for-rule-of-six-to-stop-coronavirus-spread-or-tougher-social-distancing-measures-loom?fbclid=IwAR3KQTGhsTF8AhLc1TVHanaMB4Tuvaaujhgcx9C1HuBCCRaA5fG82fqPl4A
Two weeks for ‘rule of six’ to stop coronavirus spread or tougher social distancing measures loom

I have spoken to members of the government and to its scientific advisers, and am struck by how anxious they are that the virus may be spreading out of control again.

One member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) told me : “My big worry now is that we might be too late again to avert a major second wave.

A senior member of the government told me he was acutely aware of the scientists’ concern.

“There is no possibility of us waiting for the death rate to rise before we act” he said.

He added the time frame for assessing whether this week’s new 'rule of six' had done enough to suppress the virus is a fortnight.

There is a view at the top of government that pretty much every social distancing measure should be contemplated other than school closures.

A leading scientific advisor told me: “Lockdown is the only thing that we know works, to be frank.

"I think that if we want to keep schools open, we probably have to give serious consideration to a wide range of other measures to stop a major second wave.

"And we have to think about doing that right now - which we are starting to do”.

"If we wait for deaths to go up again before taking decisive action we will be in trouble again”.

Yes, yes it is comparable.

We've been here. We've done this once already.

If we don't alter our behaviour to somewhere between where we were before pubs and shops open and where we are now, cases will continue to increase, followed by hospitalisations, followed by deaths.

That's the train that's coming, with all it's accompanying job losses and personal tragedies. If we lock down, we lose jobs, if we do nothing, we still lose them through everyone avoiding catching this virus. No-one over 50 is going to be eating out if we have 1000 deaths a day, lockdown or no lockdown. No-one is going to be getting cancer care if the hospitals are bursting with Covid cases, lockdown or no lockdown. The way to avoid the train is not to "be over this", it is to limit social interactions drastically and support those whose livelihood is affected by these limitations.

We need to change what we are doing. I think most people agree with that in principal, but then when you talk about the specifics, like blended education, or closing pubs, people think the price is too dear. However, there is a price to doing nothing and it is just as dear. We each need to look at our own lives and decide what, if anything, we can prune back over winter.

If we do not reduce social interactions ourselves, the government, or the virus, will do it for us.

Hi GalOopNorth, I do remember you, and I'm getting just the same deja vu about those threads in February. It's like the second Mumsnet wave of denial!

@Nellodee

If you are lying on a railway track and I say a train is coming, that isn't scaremongering.

Surely it depends on whether a train is coming?

'Scaremongering' a modern euphemism for 'a desire to stick head in the sand and pretend there isn't a problem'.

A moving train would kill everyone laid on the track. Covid would kill a tiny percentage. Not comparable.

Whether or not a train is actually coming, lying on the railroad tracks is a very bad idea. The probability of a train coming is extremely high, even if you can't see it.

analogy
/əˈnalədʒi/
a comparison between one thing and another, typically for the purpose of explanation or clarification.
"an analogy between the workings of nature and those of human societies"
a correspondence or partial similarity.
"the syndrome is called deep dysgraphia because of its analogy to deep dyslexia"
a thing which is comparable to something else in significant respects.
"works of art were seen as an analogy for works of nature"

We each need to look at our own lives and decide what, if anything, we can prune back over winter

I've nothing left to prune. Everything is dead. Only school and work remain. We aren't allowed to see family and that's all I want to do tbh.

That leaves school and work and no, sorry, too big of a price to pay.

Good news in Scotland from today's data: 48 people were in hospital with recently confirmed COVID-19; 6 people in ICU.

blogs.gov.scot/statistics/2020/09/15/counting-people-in-hospital-with-covid-19/