Hospitalisations and Intensive Care Figures are rising.

[Nellodee]

People keep saying that although cases are rising, hospitalisations remain low. I don't believe this is true. We need to stop pretending that we can do nothing and everything will turn out fine. Oh, and I'm not being a doom monger, I am sounding the fire alarm. I fucking can't wait to be wrong.

This is from the Guardian:

The daily total for Covid patients being admitted to hospital in England has now passed 150. On 13 September, the most recent day for which a figure is available, it was 153. The previous day it was 143. Only a week ago the numbers were in double figures. The total has not been as high as 150 since early July.

The total number of coronavirus patients in hospital in England has now reached 866. That is the figure for 15 September, up from 782 the previous day. It has not been as high as this since late July.

The number of hospital patients in England receiving mechanical ventilation has now passed 100 again. Today’s figure is 101. It has not been this high since late July.

@Greysparkles

The government should absolutely organise and fund all practical aspects of the deployment, such as childcare, transport to deployment location, accommodation and food. Staff who have a genuine reason as to why they cannot be deployed elsewhere should also be exempt.

Pay rises are a difficult one given that the country is not in a good financial state. However, staff who participate should absolutely be at the front of the queue for any future pay rises once the current pay deal has expired.

I’d like to see NHS staff renamed the ‘home guard’ for the duration of the pandemic. It should made be very clear that their co-operation is crucial to avoiding another catastrophic shutdown.

@Pomegranatepompom

Ideally deploying staff outside their specialisms should be avoided if possible but training should of course be provided if necessary.

I don’t think that say 10 nurses from Southampton COVID ward would need extensive training before being deployed to the Leicester Nighingale hospital. Equipment may be different but the basic skills needed are the same.

Your plans would alienate people.

Nhs staff will step up - we did earlier this year. None of us in truth want to work on a covid ward but I don’t know 1 person who refused to go to itu or a different area.

[quote Ecosse]@Greysparkles

The government should absolutely organise and fund all practical aspects of the deployment, such as childcare, transport to deployment location, accommodation and food. Staff who have a genuine reason as to why they cannot be deployed elsewhere should also be exempt.

Pay rises are a difficult one given that the country is not in a good financial state. However, staff who participate should absolutely be at the front of the queue for any future pay rises once the current pay deal has expired.

I’d like to see NHS staff renamed the ‘home guard’ for the duration of the pandemic. It should made be very clear that their co-operation is crucial to avoiding another catastrophic shutdown.[/quote]
Are you aiming to sound like a troll @Ecosse? If you expect to be taken seriously, conjuring up pictures of Dad's Army isn't going to help.

**It should be made very clear to NHS staff that they are our first line of defence in this crisis and they should be prepared to be utilised where they are needed

This cannot be fought in the hospitals. The first line of defence needs to be the public following the guidelines.

@Juststopswimming

We’re kicking down the road until we get a vaccine.... Given the number of advanced trials and the confidence of scientists in this field, you’d have to be pathologically pessimistic to assume that one was so unlikely that we might as well give up all hope and act as though it won’t happen.

If vaccines do fall flat, then, yes, we’ll need to build up immunity the hard way, but to do that now would be madness.... It would damage pretty much everything - health (Covid and non-Covid), mental well-being, the economy, education, the lot.

Going willingly back to where we were in March (only potentially even worse as we wouldn’t be taking any measures) and expecting the country to “take it in the chin”, and pack theatres, stadiums and offices, and generally having one big Covid party as the virus does it’s worst - only for a vaccine to be potentially ready just as we emerge - is horrific and fantastical in equal measure.

Big announcement: I'm opening a bank, and offering loans. The interest rate is 3% every day added to your debt, because apparently that's only a small increase that will remain manageable well into the future.

mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1305850989556137992

Well are we meant to be “flattening the curve”? If so we have capacity for more hospitalisations - the main thing is us not all getting it at once. Or are we meant to be trying to eliminate infections? Do you know what the strategy is? Because I certainly don’t.

@Nellodee

Lectures are one person, stood a long way in front of an audience. They can be done without the audience. There is very little participation.

I understand essay subjects meet in small groups, these could be done on zoom.

I feel awful for Freshers not getting to live away from home, but they can get an education without that.

Why should young people rack up thousands of pounds of student debt to protect people who got a free university education (I include myself in that) from Covid?

@Nellodee

I'm a mathematician. I see a smooth curve and I think, where would that curve be if I extended it for another three weeks into the future? How about six weeks? I don't look at the change in numbers, I look at the gradient and the change in the gradient.

Look at the graphs. Take a pencil, and extrapolate. If we are lucky, the line will not continue along its current path. However, we would be absolute idiots not to look at the possibility that it might.

This says it better than I could. Spot on.

[quote FrazzleRox]Good news in Scotland from today's data: 48 people were in hospital with recently confirmed COVID-19; 6 people in ICU.

blogs.gov.scot/statistics/2020/09/15/counting-people-in-hospital-with-covid-19/[/quote]
Scottish data shows a slight rise when I look at your link. Apologies if I’m being an idiot but could you explain your good news claim please, with consideration of exponential growth not the size of numbers.

Nellodee 👏

@Bluelinings the data on people in hospitals have been overstated until yesterday, adding to the fear projected by the daily briefings.

twitter.com/travellingtabby/status/1305991317344989191?s=21

I agree we definitely don't go back to how we were living with mass crowds etc, but only seeing 6 people until this magical vaccine appears - it is so restrictive for so many families. For families of 5 or 6 it is essentially a lockdown and as every day passes I lose confidence in the arrival of the vaccine. It could take years. How long do we wait for it? Wouldn't it be better to bring in proper shielding again for the vulnerable (with furlough etc to protect their jobs) and let the fit and healthy circulate (under similar restrictions to those we had over the summer) to build up some immunity so that everyone can get back to some normality more quickly?

an increase of cases from the minimum since the entire outbreak started is not 'a signal' but the consequence of unlocking the economy partially and trying to get back to life as we used to know it.

If anyone believes we should be keeping numbers down to the minimum numbers seen in August that essentially is lockdown forever with all the consequent costs involved in doing so.

There are millions of vulnerable people and they live intermingled with people who are not vulnerable. Some of them also need care from people who are not vulnerable.

We are one society - we cannot section off a single group. Just imagine for a moment that only black people were at risk from Covid. Does anyone whatsoever think that it would be acceptable to say that black people should isolate and everyone else should just get on with it?

@AlecTrevelyan006

an increase of cases from the minimum since the entire outbreak started is not 'a signal' but the consequence of unlocking the economy partially and trying to get back to life as we used to know it.

If anyone believes we should be keeping numbers down to the minimum numbers seen in August that essentially is lockdown forever with all the consequent costs involved in doing so.

If figures had risen slightly and then were holding steady, then you would be correct.

As it is, figures either grow, and continue to grow until capped by immunity (far, far in the distance) or they shrink and shrink until it becomes very low prevalence.

It would be almost impossible to have found the perfect blend of actions to keep figures level, and it is obvious from the rising figures that we have already passed this point.

They are only counting deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test. What happens if you die 30 days after a positive test? Don't they count your death as a Covid death then?

Those deaths are being tracked as well. Its clear that 28 days is too low and undercounts, and 60 days (the other recorded figure) is too high and overcounts. In addition, you have the excess deaths count.

If you take a look on the Numbers and Analysis thread, they will be able to direct you as to where to find the various figures.

I have a suspicion that Covid tests are being withheld purposely because government don't want real figures of positives tests to be known for the sake of the economy.

@Sostenueto

I have a suspicion that Covid tests are being withheld purposely because government don't want real figures of positives tests to be known for the sake of the economy.

I don't think this government is competent enough to organise that.

Thanks neilodee

@Nellodee

There are millions of vulnerable people and they live intermingled with people who are not vulnerable. Some of them also need care from people who are not vulnerable.

We are one society - we cannot section off a single group. Just imagine for a moment that only black people were at risk from Covid. Does anyone whatsoever think that it would be acceptable to say that black people should isolate and everyone else should just get on with it?

No of course we cant just section off a single group with no intermixing at all, but we can protect them to the best of our abilities - enabling them not to have to go to work etc, provide greater protection to kids with vulnerable family members. No one would be forced to be shielded, but they would have that option. Meanwhile, the rest of society weathers the storm and gets the herd through it so that we can all lead a more normal existence as quickly as possible. This approach seems to have been working well for Sweden. Quite honestly whatever we do makes me feel immensely depressed, but I just dont see what alternative there is really unless we're all prepared to live indoors for the rest of our lives.

P.S I'm not even going to respond to the "imagine if we sectioned off black people" comment because you're just being deliberately inflammatory

All NHS staff to be put on ‘emergency contracts’ for 6 months- these would allow them to be relocated anywhere in the U.K. with 48 hours’ notice. This would allow us to respond to local flare-ups as they happen.

WTAF?! Who would agree to being sent anywhere with 48 hours notice?! How will this affect their current work? Families? Childcare commitments?

"Home Guard"